[Achilles]

How many of those 1.5 million people are voting for their winner?

16,000 people have voted on the Tellymix poll. That is the largest sample figure on the internet. Polls show what the thinking is of those who voted on the poll. It doesn't take into consideration the opinions of all those who have not voted on the poll. Sometimes polls get it right, sometimes they don't.

16,000 is 1% of 1,500,000. So what % of the 1.5 million people will be voting? I don't think it is 1%. You have to look at the silent voter. The voter who does not vote on polls or comment on social media. How many silent voters are there and who will they be voting for?

Suppose 10% of the viewers are voting. That is 150,000 people. 10% of those people are making their opinion known on the internet. 90% are not. That is a very significant "unknown". That 10% refers to the largest sample, the Tellymix poll. The % is much lower when it comes to other polls and social media.

The FB popularity contest between the 6 finalists has 2.6k, 2.1k, 1.7k, 1.6k, 0.8k and 0.4k. Roughly. 9,200 total likes. The likes are all still increasing but very slowly. Assume they reach 1% of the viewers, it's still 1%.

There was a RT your fave and the numbers for that were even lower. Highest was ~750, not even 1k.


What % of the viewers are deciding the outcome of the final? 1%? 10% More?


Odds - Sometimes odds are right, sometimes they are very wrong. Ash was odds on to be evicted, he wasn't evicted. Winston had long odds, he was evicted. If people place bets, odds go down. What is the reason for the people placing bets? They are betting. What are they basing their bet on? If everything is above board, they are basing it on opinions of others. Polls, social media, forums etc. Sometimes all this can be right and sometimes wrong. I think the best way of looking at odds is looking at the % of money placed in total and treat it like a poll. In previous evictions, the actual odds did not always reflect the % of bets placed. Pav has been a great example of this. Recently Winston was a prime example. He had long odds. He started off as 5th of 5 for % of bets placed and by the start of the eviction he was 2nd of 5. Most popular bets at this moment is Ashleigh 26%, Christopher 15%, Mark 13%, Winston 13%, 12% Chris, Others (including Helen, Ash, Pav and the 11 other housemates) 21%. Ashleigh and Christopher % has gone up by ~1% each. Others has gone up ~2%. It makes sense that the most popular bets show Ashleigh, Christopher, Chris because that is what most polls have been saying for past few weeks. More bets have been placed on Ash and Helen recently as a reaction to the same social media. Chris has stayed around the same %, this makes sense because social media isn't really chatting about him at this moment.


If more than 1% of the viewers are voting, you have to think, "who are they voting"?

Long post enough now.