[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by The Slim Reaper

Jesus, everything needs to be locked down, especially schools.

Spoiler:

I mean... the graph you posted explains why this graph shouldn't be taken as representative of the actual situation, right there at the top.

I'm not saying it isn't a worsening situation, and that spike at the end there is alarming, but having a graph like this that stretches back further than late-summer is meaningless as testing early on was non-existant and at much lower levels than now right up until a couple of months ago.

In short; we have absolutely no idea what that graph actually looks like for last Spring. My gut feeling is that things are probably worse now in terms of case numbers. How that translates into severe acses/deaths is really anyone's guess. Thats for two reasons; improved treatment options (fewer severe cases die than Spring), and different infected demographic (a lot of the positive cases this time round are under-40's, which means the cases spike won't necessarily create the same deaths spike as spring).

Again I do think deaths per day are going to go higher than they did in April, but not by several orders of magnitude as that graph would suggest.

[Toy Soldier]

Basically I think the time to "panic" panic is when ICU beds are overwhelmed and when/if the deaths per day edge over 1500. The data for number of cases is hard to interpret and should only really be looked at over the recent term (a month, maybe a month and a half) and on a 7 day rolling average.

[Vanessa]

We definitely need a national lockdown.
At least until spring

[bitontheslide]

There is too much inertia related to demographics on the infection rate. We should watch the number of hospital admissions and the icu capacity carefully to see what happening now.I think peak infection will be toward the 100k if schools remain open, and that will probably be end of january. The next couple of weeks will be a nail biter as we see the effect of Christmas mixing on hospitalisation. I think its going to be grim

[arista]

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Basically I think the time to "panic" panic is when ICU beds are overwhelmed and when/if the deaths per day edge over 1500. The data for number of cases is hard to interpret and should only really be looked at over the recent term (a month, maybe a month and a half) and on a 7 day rolling average.

1500 deaths a day is virtually one death EVERY 55 seconds !!


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[DouglasS]

Originally Posted by Zizu

1500 deaths a day is virtually one death EVERY 55 seconds !!


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Let’s put this in perspective... there is a birth every 3 seconds in the UK..

With a population of 65 million it’s really a tiny percentage, 1500 out of 65,000,000 (0.002% of the population dying of covid a day at its very worst), barely 1 in 100,000 a day. Not downplaying it at all, but scaremongering is not good for anyone

[arista]

[arista]

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[arista]

[Vanessa]

Tier 5 ?

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Zizu

1500 deaths a day is virtually one death EVERY 55 seconds !!


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I wasn't trying to say it's not a horrific number, just pointing out that the peak was 1000+ last spring so up to 50% higher wouldn't be outwith expectations for the 2nd wave of an epidemic, and thus wouldn't be "time to panic" (if there is one). Also pointing out that if you were to take the graph posted "as read" it would be much higher than that, highlighting that it's important to remember that we have no idea what the infections-per-day or infections-per-100k-population were back in April so trying to graph them is largely meaningless.

[Lee.]

Originally Posted by DouglasS

Let’s put this in perspective... there is a birth every 3 seconds in the UK..

With a population of 65 million it’s really a tiny percentage, 1500 out of 65,000,000 (0.002% of the population dying of covid a day at its very worst), barely 1 in 100,000 a day. Not downplaying it at all, but scaremongering is not good for anyone

You are absolutely downplaying it. The NHS are almost overwhelmed.
If that big buffoon in Westminster doesn’t take action quickly, those figures will double, then treble within months.
It’s not about the 00000.00002 or whatever, it’s about how our health service can cope, and if they get to the point where their staff are off sick, the admissions are rising and they literally can’t cope, then we’re ****ed.

Look at the excess deaths from March until this year.

[Vanessa]

We need a national lockdown at least until spring.
But Boris doesn't want it

[Ammi]

...it really does feel more now like the perfect storm, compared to earlier in the year...and the NHS is so disabled already with the loss ...(...and continued illness...)...of many of their workforce from the first wave...before, a lot was through the media but now, it’s more first hand with those we know becoming ill and it’s a rapid thing...

[Strictly Jake]

My daughters primary isnt opening until at least feb which im happy about it just isnt safe. I dont feel safe at work either. Its time for a national lockdown

[Ammi]

Originally Posted by Strictly Jake

My daughters primary isnt opening until at least feb which im happy about it just isnt safe. I dont feel safe at work either. Its time for a national lockdown

...I’m glad that you feel assured of having your daughter safely with you atm, Jake.....

[AnnieK]

Worrying times ahead. We all knew it was coming with Christmas but its scary. What is even more scary is the thought that if they had kwpt the 5 days of mixing how much worse it would have been. We didn't see anyone outside of our support bubble so I would be confident sending my boy back to school on Weds knowing he won't pass anything on but its impossible to know who his classmates have mixed with.

[arista]

Originally Posted by Vanessa

We need a national lockdown at least until spring.
But Boris doesn't want it

We may get a Press Conference or Something later
with a U Turn.

Lets see what the day brings us.

[Beastie]

National lockdown will start from tomorrow or Wednesday. Its coming.

[AnnieK]

Originally Posted by Beastie

National lockdown will start from tomorrow or Wednesday. Its coming.

I think so too