Have the odds against Jonny going began to tumble? Have the betting syndicates started to take advantage of the fantastic odds against Sophie's survival, or is this one so big that even they cannot turn the odds around this time.

I am convinced that Alison and Spencer were the victims of betting coups. Lee's odds tumbled before the nominations were published, though he was never going to win against Jonny. Someone on the inside is making a few bob.

Meanwhile C4/E4 just shows Alex prancing around ...

[Kaz]

Not according to this article from Ananova, Oldgit.

Bookies think Big Brother's Sophie will leave on Friday

Bookies have made Big Brother's Sophie their overwhelming favourite to be the next evictee.

Ladbrokes give her odds of 1/8 to leave on Friday, with her adversary Jonny at 9/2.

Jonny is also their second favourite to scoop the £70,000 prize at 7/2.

Ladbrokes favourite to win is still Alex at 4/9, followed by Jonny, Adele and PJ.

Their spokesman Sean Boyce said: "I don't think anyone will have been surprised to see Sophie nominated. She seems to be the butt of all the rich side's jokes and she's obviously starting to feel the strain. Sophie's at 1/8, and it will take a brave person to bet against her getting evicted."


I know stranger things have happened, but Jonny does seem to be a favourite with the public (and me!), so I think it's relatively certain that Sophie will be going on Friday.

[Sticks]

Someone published the nominations on the C4 Reach forum the night before they were officially disclosed.

THERE IS A LEAK AT CHANNEL 4 !!!

I gave more details on the Jonny & Sophie up for Eviction thread

Just to show what we think of C4

DO NOT VOTE THIS WEEK

Lets try and make this the smallest vote they have.

Sophie may well be 8-1 on to walk, but last Tuesday, Alex was 3-1 on and by Thursday all bets on Spencer were off! He was even bigger favourite to walk against Alison but, again, it all changed as big bets were placed. Obviously betting syndicates cannot make up big gaps of say, 6-700,000 votes, but with smaller votes, they can place a large bet on Jonny walking (at say 5-1) then organise mass phoning in to do it. I'm sure that played a role with Alison's and Spencer's evictions.

[Kaz]

Sadly, Sticks - I don't think the voting power of the members of this forum will make a difference to the overall outcome on Friday night.

[James]

Does anyone actually have any evidence that betting syndicates influence the result of evictions?

Other than housemates they like being evicted of course.

The evidence is circumstantial. If the C4 poll shows Spencer top of the popularity poll and Alex 3rd or 4th, and someone is prepared to bet absolutely huge sums on Alex to stay, there are three possibilities:

1. Someone on the inside at C4 is either giving out voting information, or manipulating coverage, or both.

2. Someone is going to organise a mass phone in to back up the bet.

3. The gambler is a blithering idiot.

Which is it?

[James]

The Channel 4 poll is unreliable as evidenced by the current results.

Gamblers don't always bet on something they feel is the favourite. If they think the bookmaker has misjudged the odds of a housemate, they might not win the bet but they would be in profit over several such bets.

It would cost £25,000 for every 100,000 calls to an eviction number. The winning margins in most of the evictions last year were at least 300,000-400,000. Sometimes it was the best part of a million. The eviction this year where the gap was only 1000 was a freak result and could not be predicted anyway.

[Sticks]

on 3 occasions (Kate - Lee - Spencer) Bookmakers had to refuse to take further bets because of large bets on the eventual evictee.

Do not forget last week we had the e-mail and Text message scams to evict Spencer