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dogfacetowin · 05-09-2009, 12:44 AM

interesting indeed

AhmedFan2004 · 05-09-2009, 12:45 AM

[rquote=2542986&tid=146645&author=Shasown]Then if its only a "rough guide" you cant make the assumption that Dave was close to second, for percentages to work effectively and accurately you need actual percentages per round.

You would also need to know roughly how many voted up to the first closing of the phonelines in order to make accurate assessments, in fact the more information you have the more accurate the percentage margins will be. 0.8% doesnt sound a lot 8 in a thousand, how many thousand voted though?

Simply talking the official party guideline "Sophie had 74.4%" of the vote and working backwards is again ineffective, supposing only a couple of hundred votes were actually recorded(thats not 100 people voted, votes can and do get set aside, if the count from a particular phone number exceeds more than an average of 4 per minute as an example, based on time to get a line, dial and record the vote)

[/rquote]
Of course he was close to 2nd, Sophie won by a landslide. Hell, 2nd to 5th was all close. The forums have been poor indicators all series. It's attracting fans of certain HMs more than others. It's a niche segment of the BB demographic; not representative.

Shasown · 05-09-2009, 12:48 AM

One other thing to add 5 and 4 places were taken at the initial closure of the phone lines therefore when whoever decided to weight the figures for the second listing of % both should have changed by the same ratio, a simple mistake in maths like that will have a much larger cumulative effect on later percentages.

setanta · 05-09-2009, 12:50 AM

I doubt it'll be too far wide of the mark Shasown.

Shasown · 05-09-2009, 12:50 AM

[rquote=2542994&tid=146645&author=AhmedFan2004][rquote=2542986&tid=146645&author=Shasown]Then if its only a "rough guide" you cant make the assumption that Dave was close to second, for percentages to work effectively and accurately you need actual percentages per round.

You would also need to know roughly how many voted up to the first closing of the phonelines in order to make accurate assessments, in fact the more information you have the more accurate the percentage margins will be. 0.8% doesnt sound a lot 8 in a thousand, how many thousand voted though?

Simply talking the official party guideline "Sophie had 74.4%" of the vote and working backwards is again ineffective, supposing only a couple of hundred votes were actually recorded(thats not 100 people voted, votes can and do get set aside, if the count from a particular phone number exceeds more than an average of 4 per minute as an example, based on time to get a line, dial and record the vote)

[/rquote]
Of course he was close to 2nd, Sophie won by a landslide. Hell, 2nd to 5th was all close. The forums have been poor indicators all series. It's attracting fans of certain HMs more than others. It's a niche segment of the BB demographic; not representative.[/rquote]

Am not arguing the point that the forums have been poor indicators just pointing out the maths is flawed in the figures you quote.

Nor does the figures released by CH4 show where or when the landslide you refer to occur, was it throughout all the voting or simply in the last portion of voting, without accurate figures it could be sophie lost.

She may have been within the top 3 and then as other fell by the wayside she picked up some but the lines have been open days, in that time a lot of votes could have been cast.

Manipulating % is a cheap way of bringing who you want to win forward to appear to win.

I hope ch4 release total votes cast per housemate over the whole voting period.

AhmedFan2004 · 05-09-2009, 01:00 AM

LOL whatever, Sophie won easily, and 2nd to 5th was tight ...

And the they don't 'throw away votes' or anything, lol, that would be illegal ...

Every vote counts.

Shasown · 05-09-2009, 01:05 AM

[rquote=2543066&tid=146645&author=AhmedFan2004]LOL whatever, Sophie won easily, and 2nd to 5th was tight ...

And the they don't 'throw away votes' or anything, lol, that would be illegal ...

Every vote counts.[/rquote]

Dont they? Get your ignorant ass over to the official site and read the voting terms.

They can discard any votes they think came from automatic diallers etc, and the computers counting the votes use timers when comparing numbers.

There is also a great article on google about block voting checks and timers etc, go educate yourself.

As I said i dont think CH4 will release the full voting figures including overall votes per housemate before and after discarded votes.

RCW1945 · 05-09-2009, 01:12 AM

The BBO figures are interesting, and obviously nearer the reality than the Ch4 released figures.
What they lack, however, are the assumptions that were made during the calculation, knowledge of which would allow us to judge their reliability.

keithafc · 05-09-2009, 01:12 AM

She won at a landslide, why argue against it?

Shasown · 05-09-2009, 01:14 AM

[rquote=2543143&tid=146645&author=RCW1945]The BBO figures are interesting, and obviously nearer the reality than the Ch4 released figures.
What they lack, however, are the assumptions that were made during the calculation, knowledge of which would allow us to judge their reliability.
[/rquote]

Thank you, at least one other person with a sensible head on tonight.

RCW1945 · 05-09-2009, 01:16 AM

Shasown
Your comments on the mathematical processes involved are interesting and suggest a person of some intelligence.
However, all that is lost when you come out with "Get your ignorant ass over to the official site and read the voting terms. "
That sort of language has no place in mathematics.

Jords · 05-09-2009, 01:18 AM

[rquote=2543066&tid=146645&author=AhmedFan2004]LOL whatever, Sophie won easily, and 2nd to 5th was tight ...

And the they don't 'throw away votes' or anything, lol, that would be illegal ...

Every vote counts.[/rquote]

Your playing the idiot.

You know very well Sophie and Siavash were the top favourites.
But Sophie being the top top favourite would recieve the votes from those who liked both. I doubt many Sophie fans would have David second choice, most Siavash and the rest Roddy.

setanta · 05-09-2009, 01:18 AM

[rquote=2543167&tid=146645&author=RCW1945]Shasown
Your comments on the mathematical processes involved are interesting and suggest a person of some intelligence.
However, all that is lost when you come out with "Get your ignorant ass over to the official site and read the voting terms. "
That sort of language has no place in mathematics.

[/rquote]

Agreed, and sure I doubt there'll be a huge difference in the official figures. Not enough to have a mickey fit over these ones anyway.

Shasown · 05-09-2009, 01:54 AM

[rquote=2543167&tid=146645&author=RCW1945]Shasown
Your comments on the mathematical processes involved are interesting and suggest a person of some intelligence.
However, all that is lost when you come out with "Get your ignorant ass over to the official site and read the voting terms. "
That sort of language has no place in mathematics.

[/rquote]

If you follow the thread you will see, the actual mathematical processes were by then discarded by Ahmedfan and his viewpoint was then changed to the fact votes were not discounted.

That to me is ignorance, he had made a statement based purely on what he assumed, not what he knew as fact, in order to change the goalposts for his assertation he was right.

Ignorance can be taken to mean ill mannered, it can also more correctly mean being unaware of the true facts or lacking in knowledge. If he or anyone else is upset by the fact I stated he was unaware of the facts, and incorrectly assumed I meant he was ill mannered or any other meaning they use the word for, then I apologise.

Shasown · 05-09-2009, 01:59 AM

[rquote=2543173&tid=146645&author=setanta]

Agreed, and sure I doubt there'll be a huge difference in the official figures. Not enough to have a mickey fit over these ones anyway.[/rquote]

I am not having a mickey fit over any figures, just stating my opinion.

You may be surprised just how the figures can be massaged, after all BB have been so honest with their totally unbiased H/L shows and then the total unbias interviews and commentary from GL and Davina havent they?

setanta · 05-09-2009, 02:05 AM

[rquote=2543398&tid=146645&author=Shasown][rquote=2543173&tid=146645&author=setanta]

Agreed, and sure I doubt there'll be a huge difference in the official figures. Not enough to have a mickey fit over these ones anyway.[/rquote]

I am not having a mickey fit over any figures, just stating my opinion.

You may be surprised just how the figures can be massaged, after all BB have been so honest with their totally unbiased H/L shows and then the total unbias interviews and commentary from GL and Davina havent they?[/rquote]

No, I understand why you're mentioning the figures and how they can't be accurately gauged until the final tally has been counted but sure I wouldn't get too ruffled up over it. Doubtful that there'll be a huge discrepancy and even if there is, it'll be more to do with the extra half hour that Siavash and Sophie had in votes. It's a good rough guide to how the voting went, you kno?

UglyBaby · 05-09-2009, 02:16 AM

Siavash has a lot of haters. Even on BBBM he got a very rough ride considering he finished 2nd! Viewers just do not appreciate those kind of antics; not voting, threatening to leave etc

Unpopular HMs can finish top 3. Look at Jason in BB5; much hated but still finished runner up. Then he vanished in shame.

Shasown · 05-09-2009, 02:34 AM

[rquote=2543422&tid=146645&author=setanta][rquote=2543398&tid=146645&author=Shasown][rquote=2543173&tid=146645&author=setanta]

Agreed, and sure I doubt there'll be a huge difference in the official figures. Not enough to have a mickey fit over these ones anyway.[/rquote]

I am not having a mickey fit over any figures, just stating my opinion.

You may be surprised just how the figures can be massaged, after all BB have been so honest with their totally unbiased H/L shows and then the total unbias interviews and commentary from GL and Davina havent they?[/rquote]

No, I understand why you're mentioning the figures and how they can't be accurately gauged until the final tally has been counted but sure I wouldn't get too ruffled up over it. Doubtful that there'll be a huge discrepancy and even if there is, it'll be more to do with the extra half hour that Siavash and Sophie had in votes. It's a good rough guide to how the voting went, you kno?[/rquote]

No, its an accurate guide to the votes that were counted in the last 30 minutes is all. That is all the 74.4% can reveal

We dont and wont know what way the actual votes were counted and housemates discarded, Sophie could have the most overall votes or over the whole voting period could by zeroing the counts actually have the lowest overall total out of the final 3 but the highest total in the last 30 minutes.

setanta · 05-09-2009, 02:38 AM

[rquote=2543490&tid=146645&author=Shasown][rquote=2543422&tid=146645&author=setanta][rquote=2543398&tid=146645&author=Shasown][rquote=2543173&tid=146645&author=setanta]

Agreed, and sure I doubt there'll be a huge difference in the official figures. Not enough to have a mickey fit over these ones anyway.[/rquote]

I am not having a mickey fit over any figures, just stating my opinion.

You may be surprised just how the figures can be massaged, after all BB have been so honest with their totally unbiased H/L shows and then the total unbias interviews and commentary from GL and Davina havent they?[/rquote]

No, I understand why you're mentioning the figures and how they can't be accurately gauged until the final tally has been counted but sure I wouldn't get too ruffled up over it. Doubtful that there'll be a huge discrepancy and even if there is, it'll be more to do with the extra half hour that Siavash and Sophie had in votes. It's a good rough guide to how the voting went, you kno?[/rquote]

No, its an accurate guide to the votes that were counted in the last 30 minutes is all. That is all the 74.4% can reveal

We dont and wont know what way the actual votes were counted and housemates discarded, Sophie could have the most overall votes or over the whole voting period could by zeroing the counts actually have the lowest overall total out of the final 3 but the highest total in the last 30 minutes.[/rquote]

I know that, but is serves as a rough guide and I really don't think there'll be much of a difference in the actual results. She probably did get over 40% of the votes, just like they've suggested. Sure we'll see.

AhmedFan2004 · 05-09-2009, 09:39 PM

BBO have corrected the %s. Check it out now. 2nd to 5th was tight!

chris1232 · 05-09-2009, 09:41 PM

Very close indeed!

AhmedFan2004 · 05-09-2009, 09:44 PM

[rquote=2546651&tid=146645&author=chris1232]Very close indeed![/rquote]
Shows how poor an indicator forums are. The %'s on forum polls are WAY out!

MassiveTruck · 05-09-2009, 09:48 PM

If you consider the simple fact that Rodrigo came out with 11% of the vote and Sophie won with 75% against Siavash, then it should be clear that she complete demolished everyone but also places 2, 3, 4 and 5 were very very very close.

cleaner67 · 05-09-2009, 09:50 PM

I thought Rodrigo would have got better than 5th, just goes to show anything can happen

MassiveTruck · 05-09-2009, 09:50 PM

[rquote=2546669&tid=146645&author=AhmedFan2004][rquote=2546651&tid=146645&author=chris1232]Very close indeed![/rquote]
Shows how poor an indicator forums are. The %'s on forum polls are WAY out![/rquote]

For me it shows something utterly deeper and far more interesting

How certain housemates require a far more aggressive and amplified support to encourage their survival.

For instance, Siavash, should have got the Marcus and Freddie votes... but he didn't - the view from the forums would have indicated this but it appears as though the general viewing public chose somebody less offensive as a fave... so what does this say about people who chose, empathise and support Siavash with vehemence, since he had such a massive support on the forums.

Just a slight switch and David could have been 2nd.

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