[dustmite]

Such statistical predictions rely on statistics that are reliable, and somewhat linear.

The problem with applying any form of statistical analysis to something like Big Brother is that:

i) There's not enough recorded statistical evidence to be able to make reliable predictions as of yet

ii) Big Brother will never be linear, the results of a given Big Brother show/year will rely on the qualities of the people place inside of the house.

Think logically. Plane crashes, and people's personalities & behaviour belong in totally different areas of analysis. Plane crashes belong to statistics, Humans belong to Psychology.

So, before citing statistics... think whether they even apply first... It's what's referred to as "the golden rule of statistics"

M.