[Sticks]

From the Sun Online

BRIAN was catching up with the twins last night — after thousands of die-hard fans placed last-minute bets on him being tonight’s winner.

Sam and Amanda, who are being treated as a single housemate, remain the favourites at 1/6.

But Essex lad Brian, 20, was hot on their heels at 7/2.

And Sun readers named him as their choice in our online poll — with 3,276 wanting him to win, compared with 3,112 for the Samanda duo.

Is this what they referred to on BBLB?


Twins fans still need to keep ringing 09011 21 22 24

[Sticks]

Related

[goroos1994]

arent the twins now winning in the poll?

[Captain.Remy]

The twins will win of course but it's the closest finale ever I think.

[Sticks]

Could they have peaked too soon?

[Sticks]

From the Mirror

Quick Vote
Who do you want to win Big Brother?
Carole 136 4%
Brian 1204 32%
Jonty 656 18%
Liam 287 8%
Sam and Amanda 1100 30%
Ziggy 330 9%

Have the twins peaked too soon

If Terpsichore is around, do you have any incite on last minute surges, which is what the Sun seems to be talking about

[Barbie]

i think alot of people vote during tonights show

[Sam]

I'll be voting a lot for the twins tonight, i really don't want Brian to win.

[dupin]

What The Sun don't realize, is that 1/7 and 7/2 are NOT close odds. Wasn't it closer between Pete and Glyn last year?

[Captain.Remy]

Message original : dupin
What The Sun don't realize, is that 1/7 and 7/2 are NOT close odds. Wasn't it closer between Pete and Glyn last year?

Of course not, Pete was largely the winner ! The twins are but not as Pete.

[XxShortyxX]

Just means more votes for the Twins. I really, really hope Brian doesn't win, I will be so peed off if he does. Us Twin fans need to vote more.

[dupin]

Originally posted by sunshine30

Of course not, Pete was largely the winner ! The twins are but not as Pete.

No, but I mean in the odds. At some point Pete was 1/4 to Aisleyne's 7/2 early in the week...

[bananarama]

It could well be slipping away from the twins in the next few hours.......People voting 200-300 times for a favourite is quite likely. Brian fans are a determined bunch what they can't get by normal voting means they will spend spend spend to buy their winner.......

The bookies odds cannot predict who and what amount of mass multiple voting occures.....The twins are not safe.......

[Terpsichore]

These are the averaged odds from the last 7 days.

Twins -- 1.33 -- 1.32 --- 1.29 --- 1.29 --- 1.23 --- 1.15---1.15
Brian --- 3.32 -- 3.33 --- 3.57 --- 3.57 --- 4.03 --- 4.64---4.39
Liam -- 12.90 - 13.27 - 18.29 - 20.00 -- 18.58 - 21.45--24.27

As you see, the twins advance has come to a halt. It actually reached a peak last night, at around 1.14, then slipped back again overnight. I took their average from 10 bookies, and just two of them show the twins on a backward trend. The others are holding steady.

Brian has moved up since yesterday, with 3 of the 10 bookies showing him on an upward trend. But it looks like his advance has been at the expense of Liam, rather than the twins. Liam's odds are showing a bigger dip since yesterday than he's had for the last 3 days.

There is nothing in these figures to indicate the "surge" of Brian support that tabloids are reporting. Though, obviously you have to bear in mind that these figures are from gamblers, not voters. If the gambling fraternity is out of kilter with the voters, it won't be the first time, but it will be the first time I've known them to be out by this much.

I didn't see anything on BBLB this morning that shed any light, so I don't know what people are referring to, but they did a poll of the studio audience two days ago which showed 1/3 for Brian, and 1/2 for the twins. That's about what I would have expected if betting odds are anything to go by. It's also consistent with the poll thread on this forum, showing twins with just under half the total votes. But if the tabloids have run polls that show Brian ahead, you just have to take your choice.

[beanny]

COME ON TWINNIES!
09011 21 22 24

[sexy_leigh]

OMFG brian you can do it come on brians fans we have got to let brian win and not the twins i'll be voting like MAD and i hope all you brian fans will too!!!

[Captain.Remy]

Twiiiiins to win !
09011 21 22 24

[Sam]

C'mon twins! This is much more exciting than last years final by far

[Terpsichore]

These are the averaged odds from the last 7 days, the last being from 11.00 am today.

Twins -- 1.33 -- 1.32 --- 1.29 --- 1.29 --- 1.23 --- 1.15---1.15
Brian --- 3.32 -- 3.33 --- 3.57 --- 3.57 --- 4.03 --- 4.64---4.39
Liam -- 12.90 - 13.27 - 18.29 - 20.00 -- 18.58 - 21.45--24.27

I did another check ten miinutes ago, and there is hardly any change since this morning. Twins holding steady at 1.15, Brian shortening slightly at 4.36, Liam lengthening slightly to 24.46.

If betting odds are right, it's a clear win for the twins. If Brian wins, it will be the biggest discrepancy between gamblers and voters I've ever seen for this event. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'd treat scare stories in the tabloids about Brian and the twins going "neck and neck" with scepticism. Some ramping going on, I suspect.

[GlitterEyes]

I can hear Davina already tonight saying "It's close at the top"...Yawn they have to keep it interesting so say its close on most of these shows when infact one is leading by miles.

[InTheFade]

It'd be so cool if there was a draw. Is that possible?

[bananarama]

Originally posted by InTheFade
It'd be so cool if there was a draw. Is that possible?

Astronomical probability. If it did happen they would probable open the phone lines for a few more minutes until it was settled one way or the other........

[x_mel_x]

I'm really glad its so close this year,unlike last year where it was so obvious that Pete was gonna win.

[Sticks]

Originally posted by Sam
C'mon twins! This is much more exciting than last years final by far

Have you never heard the Chinese curse May you live in interesting times. ?

Terpsichore, are you a professional gambler by any chance? I wondered because of your expertise in this area. I also was wondering if you were some kind of statistician. I really value your eye on this world. We have a guy at work who does the horses, so it was interesting discussing the operation of bookies with him and the differences between dependent and independent probabilities.

[Terpsichore]

Originally posted by Sticks

Terpsichore, are you a professional gambler by any chance? I wondered because of your expertise in this area. I also was wondering if you were some kind of statistician. I really value your eye on this world. We have a guy at work who does the horses, so it was interesting discussing the operation of bookies with him and the differences between dependent and independent probabilities.

I'm an occasional gambler, not professional. I wouldn't touch the horses, or even the football, where expertise counts for a lot - previous form, knowledge of conditions, etc. I did do the football four or five years ago, but profit margins were pretty small. But with something like BB, there is no previous form. Each contestant has a blank sheet when they walk into the house. And the objective is to guess what impression they are making on the public. Bookies are no better at that than anyone else. So making money is possible. I first started betting on the twins when their odds were in double figures, Amanda at 16/1 and Sam at 20/1. I was sure the public would take to them increasingly, and their odds would shorten. As they did shorten, I continued to take bets with increasing amounts, and I've hung onto all those bets.

What I mean by that is that I haven't hedged them, which I could have done, by "laying" on Betfair, where punters are betting against each other, not against bookies. "Laying" a bet isn't the same thing as "placing" a bet. If I "laid" now on Betfair, I'd offer "twins to win" to any punter who wants to take it, for a fixed stake. But obviously the odds I offer them are drastically shorter than the ones I myself took several weeks back, so I'd be risking a small amount for a potentially large return. If the twins win, I lose that bet, of course, so my overall profit is what it would have been minus the stake I lost on Betfair. If, against all probabilites, the twins lose, I lose all my twins-to-win bets, but win the one on Betfair. By carefully adjusting the stake, you can ensure you make a profit whatever the result. So, in many ways, it's like playing the stock market. You hope to buy low and sell high. You take a contestant to win at long odds, then when their odds have shortened, you lay it on Betfair, thus guaranteeing a profit.

I could have done that with the twins, though I didn't. My confidence in them tells me, rightly or wrongly, to risk everything on a win, and not to lay at all.

But betting on BB is a matter of having a good eye for the outside bet, and getting your bets in early, before the odds shorten. And that means watching a lot of TV in the early phases of the show. I risked quite a lot last year with Glyn, on a "win without Pete" bet, when he was still longish odds, and hope to be as successful with the twins tonight.

But gambling is gambling, and with something like BB there are no experts. I, and thousands of other punters, could be wrong tonight. With the fickle public, you never know. All I can say is, I've seen no sign in the past week of a Brian surge, even though everyone seems to be talking about it. If I had done, I would have laid off some of my bets. But I need more than rumours, or scare stories in the tabloids. So I'm sticking. Twins to win.