[Apple202]

hopefully not labour

[joeysteele]

I can also actually see the Lib Dems inflicting damage to the Conservatives too. The Lib Dems will have to alter their stance on issues now and in fact already are starting to.

I can see the Lib Dems saying that if the Conservatives were to get an overall majority, they will start to hit pensioners too as to welfare and benefit changes/cuts.
Since the NHS caused a problem for the Conservatives with the Lib Dems, I can also see the Lib Dems saying that if the Conservatives get an overall majority they will likely bring in the reforms they were forced to shelve by the Lib Dems.
More scaremongering as to the Conservatives.

Sarah Tether is already very much against the benefit reforms and the Conservative line now,it may well be Labour needs to do and say very little to win in 2015.
The lib Dems are on a hiding to nothing likely in 2015, they will desperately want another hung parliament.

[Kazanne]

Labour really need to get rid of Milliband he is holding them back.

[Omah]

Originally Posted by Kazanne

Labour really need to get rid of Milliband he is holding them back.

Yeah, not exactly inspiring, is he - just another Mr Dull from Dullsville .....

[Kazanne]

Originally Posted by Omah

Yeah, not exactly inspiring, is he - just another Mr Dull from Dullsville .....

He's dire,I wont vote for them while he is at the helm.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Kazanne

Labour really need to get rid of Milliband he is holding them back.

I like Andy Burnham, he would have been my choice had I been a member of the Labour party,which I am not.
I have talked to him and respect his NHS views.

However, I cannot see any move to remove Ed Miliband now so close to an election, nor in the other parties any moves to remove David Cameron or Nick Clegg.
Ed Miliband has the poll lead and although the poll lead is somewhere between 7% and 10%, as I mentioned earlier I think most of that lead is a strong vote and not a soft lead that could be threatened.

he could put his foot in it of course like Gordon Brown did many times but somehow I think there is much more to him and that won't happen either.

The Conservative party has now never won in a general election more than 36% of the vote since 1992,over 20 years ago.
No way do I see them doing it next time and that will be nowhere near enough for them to be the largest party never mind win outright in 2015.

[Jack_]

On the subject of Milliband, I wasn't overly keen on his appointment at first but after watching his speech at the Labour Party Conference in Manchester last year I warmed to him. I remember when I went to watch it I only intended on watching about 15 minutes but ended up watching the whole thing. An engaging, passionate and encouraging speech which I would recommend people watch before passing judgement.

Youtube video

And besides, it's the overall policies of the party that count, not the leader.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Jack_

On the subject of Milliband, I wasn't overly keen on his appointment at first but after watching his speech at the Labour Party Conference in Manchester last year I warmed to him. I remember when I went to watch it I only intended on watching about 15 minutes but ended up watching the whole thing. An engaging, passionate and encouraging speech which I would recommend people watch before passing judgement.

Youtube video

And besides, it's the overall policies of the party that count, not the leader.

I know a lot of people who were impressed with that speech Jack, from fellow students,some who were Conservative too.
Also people I just talk to.
What I am finding the more I talk to people as to politics is that the majority of them just want this Govt gone.
I've lost count of the times I have been asked how long is it before the next election, when I say around 2 years, most groan at the thought of another 2 years of this Coalition.

I agree it was an engaging,passionate and encouraging speech by Ed Miliband, also a very impressive one too.

[Omah]

Originally Posted by Kazanne

He's dire,I wont vote for them while he is at the helm.

Nor will a lot of the electorate .....

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Kazanne

He's dire,I wont vote for them while he is at the helm.

Hi Kazanne It's like what you said on another thread Kazanne,where I said I had moved from a Consrervative background to a more likely Labour one and you then said you had come the other way.

As for me, while David Cameron is leader of the Conservatives I would never vote for them,especially after his deceit on the NHS, saying he wouldn't do any full reforms to it but then did.
As for Nick Clegg and Lib Dems,well I 100% will never vote for them with him as leader but then again I am unlikely to consider voting for them again anyway.

I find it really interesting though as to why people move from their support for a party.
At 16, I was a Conservative,now the only party I have any faith in is Labour at least from a compassionate element in politics.
I do take on board the fact you have moved from who it may have been expected you'd support,just as I have too.
Although for 2015 it would seem most of my family are also moving from the Conservatives too.
My Dad being a lifelong Conservative voter, even he won't be voting for them in 2015.

Like or dislike Ed Miliband, I am sure though more voters will vote for the party he leads than any other in 2015.

Too much deceit and heartless policies have come from this Coalition.
They had to,I accept fully, make very hard decisions and choices as to policy but they didn't have to be cruel,heartless and full of discrimination ones too.
That is what I believe most voters will not forgive or forget too and why I am sure they will be out in 2015.

[Omah]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013...?utm_hp_ref=uk

Only 1 in 4 voters believe Labour leader Ed Miliband has what it takes to become PM, even though most would vote his party into power.

Labour's popularity has dwindled to a 12-month low with voters uncertain about the party's ability to form the next government, according to Ipsos MORI.

A poll last month for The Observer found 54% expect Miliband to become PM suggesting he is the best of a bad bunch alongside David Cameron and Nick Clegg.

The Opposition is still well ahead of the Conservatives, who are languishing on 29%, but support has fallen from previous highs to 38%.

Overall, 58% of British adults doubt Labour is ready to form the next government while 66% do not believe Miliband is ready to be prime minister.

Although the number of voters that believe he can take on the job has increased by 7 points since May 2011 to 24%, the figures are "significantly below" the poll ratings Tony Blair and David Cameron were scooping at a similar point in opposition, according to Ipsos MORI.

The news may come as a blow for Miliband who said recently it was "possible" he could become prime minister.

Bad for Ed .....

[Kazanne]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

Hi Kazanne It's like what you said on another thread Kazanne,where I said I had moved from a Consrervative background to a more likely Labour one and you then said you had come the other way.

As for me, while David Cameron is leader of the Conservatives I would never vote for them,especially after his deceit on the NHS, saying he wouldn't do any full reforms to it but then did.
As for Nick Clegg and Lib Dems,well I 100% will never vote for them with him as leader but then again I am unlikely to consider voting for them again anyway.

I find it really interesting though as to why people move from their support for a party.
At 16, I was a Conservative,now the only party I have any faith in is Labour at least from a compassionate element in politics.
I do take on board the fact you have moved from who it may have been expected you'd support,just as I have too.
Although for 2015 it would seem most of my family are also moving from the Conservatives too.
My Dad being a lifelong Conservative voter, even he won't be voting for them in 2015.

Like or dislike Ed Miliband, I am sure though more voters will vote for the party he leads than any other in 2015.

Too much deceit and heartless policies have come from this Coalition.
They had to,I accept fully, make very hard decisions and choices as to policy but they didn't have to be cruel,heartless and full of discrimination ones too.
That is what I believe most voters will not forgive or forget too and why I am sure they will be out in 2015.

I think Labour will get in Joey,I would just much prefer a diffent leader,I like what Cameron is trying to do albeit a bit harsh sometimes,I don't agree with everything the Conservatives have done,I just think it's the right way to go,we need to stop people getting money for nothing all the time,it's a way of life for some,but I think the bedroom tax should be looked at again,it must be a really tough job for anyone though Joey.UKIP seem to have done well in something today,haven't read the whole story yet just heard a snippet on the news,hurry up and be the PM then I can vote for you.

[Livia]

It's just too early to say. No one can call it mid-term. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Kazanne

I think Labour will get in Joey,I would just much prefer a diffent leader,I like what Cameron is trying to do albeit a bit harsh sometimes,I don't agree with everything the Conservatives have done,I just think it's the right way to go,we need to stop people getting money for nothing all the time,it's a way of life for some,but I think the bedroom tax should be looked at again,it must be a really tough job for anyone though Joey.UKIP seem to have done well in something today,haven't read the whole story yet just heard a snippet on the news,hurry up and be the PM then I can vote for you.

Kazanne, I am not even really a member of a party yet. I would doubt if I go into politics I would ever get past being a simple MP anyway,that is if I even ever got elected.

Really fascinating for me though to think that just barely 2 years from now the campaign will be near all over now and election day looming.
Amazing how quickly that time will fly by now,these last 2 years have literally just disappeared in a rush for me.

[Cherie]

Originally Posted by Livia

It's just too early to say. No one can call it mid-term. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

Precisely. Voters have notoriously short memories.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Livia

It's just too early to say. No one can call it mid-term. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

That's very true Livia.

[Jamie585]

To be honest.. I really don't care anymore!

[Omah]

Monday, 1 April 2013

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspo...rediction.html

This is from Electoral Calculus - only last month they were showing a win of 112 seats for Labour the latest predictions have lowered this win to 96

Tories up 1 since last prediction, Labour down 8 , Lib Dems up 7

Current Prediction: Labour majority 96
Party 2010 Votes 2010 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 36.97% 307 28.62% 211
LAB 29.66% 258 38.72% 373
LIB 23.56% 57 12.40% 31
NAT 2.26% 9 3.54% 16
MIN 7.54% 19 16.71% 19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Mar 13 to 28 Mar 13, sampling 7,878 people.

For those who do care ......

[joeysteele]

Opinion Polls all have an error margin, all the polls currently being reported show a lead for Labour between 6 and 10 points all within the error margins so in effect near all saying the same.
A Labour lead of likely 7 to 8 points.

It also depends on how and if the pollsters distribute the 'don't know' votes too.
One thing is certain from all polls, the Conservatives are and have been for the last 2 years alsmost now down in the lower 30s, under their 36% they got in the last election.
Labour is in the high 30s, well up from their figure of the 2010 election.

I don't see that changing either in 2015 really.

[Omah]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

Opinion Polls all have an error margin, all the polls currently being reported show a lead for Labour between 6 and 10 points all within the error margins so in effect near all saying the same.
A Labour lead of likely 7 to 8 points.

It also depends on how and if the pollsters distribute the 'don't know' votes too.
One thing is certain from all polls, the Conservatives are and have been for the last 2 years alsmost now down in the lower 30s, under their 36% they got in the last election.
Labour is in the high 30s, well up from their figure of the 2010 election.

I don't see that changing either in 2015 really.

I thought you'd like the figures, but of course:

Livia It's just too early to say. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

What you don't see may change completely .....

[joeysteele]

I agree things could change but in reality the Conservatives have to virtually reverse the current polling and completely change places with Labour in the high 30s and also to have to see Labour down in the lower 30s.
If they don't do that then they will not be anywhere near any kind of overall majority whatsoever.
Needing to be at least 5% or 6% ahead of Labour to barely scrape even the tiniest possible overall majority

Of course I also agree with Livia, 2 years is indeed a very long time in politics so anything is possible,However nothing saved Gordon Brown over his last 18 months to 2 years of power.
I however feel we are at the probable general election poll ratings now and I personally cannot see or expect anything to come, that will reverse that to the level it has to be to save the Conservatives from defeat.

I do find poll figures fascinating though but I also always keep in the mind the error margins to them too, which is why there are often so many variations as to actual poll leads.

What has been continuous all through the last 2 years though is as I mentioned before, the fact that even when the lead alters,increasing or decreasing for Labour,the Conservatives remain in the lower 30s as to percentage of voters while Labour stay steady in the higher 30s.
I just cannot see that changing now especially with the ffects of the NHS reforms to still filter through and the benefits changes but most of all the effects of the bedroom tax.

It actually does really sadden me that David Cameron has led his party down this savage and massive reforming road,he should have stalled it and waited for better times,nurturing the fragile recovery and keeping growth going albeit small growth instead.
All of that has been costly and that will also be made known during the election campaign too when it comes.

I do also think people are underestimating the impact UKIP could have too in the election,I do feel they will be a force to be reckoned with next time.Whether that materialises into seats though, is another matter and another wait and see.

[Omah]

As they say in the stock market :

"Past performance is no guarantee of future returns .... what goes up may also come down"

[Omah]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22262030

One of the UK's top union leaders has voiced doubts about whether Labour can win the next general election.

Unite boss Len McCluskey said the party would only be elected if it offered a radical alternative to the "gloom and despair" of the coalition government.

He told BBC Radio 5Live that if Labour say they "believe in an austerity programme but won't cut as deep or as fast, it is my view they will lose".

Unite, which has 1.5 million members, is Labour's largest financial backer.

Mr McCluskey's comments come as there is increasing pressure on Labour to give specific details of future policies and set out how its spending plans at the next election, scheduled for 2015, would differ from the Conservatives' and Lib Dems'.

He's right - with an unpopular leader and lacklustre policies, the Labour Party will fail to gain an overwhelming victory in any election .....

[Livia]

If UKIP continue to make noises that the public want to hear, regardless of the fact that their strategy is virtually non-existent, I can see the Tories trying to form a coalition with them. UKIP's policies (such as they are) really aren't that far removed from Conservative policies and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that cosying up to the Tories could suit them, the Tories and the voters who bother to turn out. Of course... two years is still a long time.

[Jack_]

The thought of a Tory and UKIP coalition makes me want to emigrate