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bots · 27-03-2021, 10:07 AM

it's going to effectively be a "who do you believe" referendum between the two leaders. It makes sense to me because TS was saying nationalist won't vote for anyone other than the snp, now they have a choice

arista · 27-03-2021, 11:49 AM

Spoiler:

Back in 2015

Toy Soldier · 27-03-2021, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

it's going to effectively be a "who do you believe" referendum between the two leaders. It makes sense to me because TS was saying nationalist won't vote for anyone other than the snp, now they have a choice

I honestly doubt it will meaningfully split the vote in a traditional sense, we've seen quite clearly how "new parties" perform in recent UK elections... the fact is, despite how it may sometimes seem online, most people are just not engaged enough in politics to do much more than go along out of duty and click a box based on their vague leanings. Your average Scottish voter is not paying all that much attention to the Sturgeon/Salmond spat.

What might make it more impactful/interesting though is that Scottish Parliament elections don't use pure First Past The Post, they use mixed-member Proportional Respresentation which means there may well be an "Alba presence" in the resulting parliament even IF most people don't switch their main vote. We vote on two separate things; a FPTP constituent vote and also a PR "regional member" vote, in that second vote the representatives are divided up based on vote percentage (so pretending there are only the two parties - even if SNP tak 60% of the vote, Alba still gets the other 40% of the seats for that region as elected representatives).

If there is a significant effect there there are two considerations. #1, it could damage the SNP's chances of getting a full majority because forming a majority government under a system that includes PR is difficult at the best of times. That could damage the case for independence. But #2, there are now TWO pro-indy parties to choose from which could mean an overall higher proportion of MSP's who are "pro indy" - even if it erodes the number of SNP reps.

In theory I'm not against there being two pro-indy parties in Scotland, it makes things interesting in a sense, BUT I'm fairly disgusted that the new one is being headed up by a pawing pervert ("allegedly"

) with a stink of Russian ties on him to boot. Sigh. It's just depressing that anyone would vote for him at all, the handsy toad.

Tom4784 · 27-03-2021, 12:58 PM

What a spiteful move on his part, if this party picks up steam (I imagine it won't) then it could split the votes between SNP and them and pretty much hand the Tories a more consistent presence in Scotland.

It's a party based in revenge, really, from the looks of it and I hope it flops.

arista · 27-03-2021, 04:16 PM

MP Kenny MacAskill quits SNP for new Alba Party

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-56550195

arista · 28-03-2021, 11:04 AM

A
2nd SNP has jumped to Alba

This getting like what Cameron had with UKIP

arista · 28-03-2021, 11:05 AM

[Neale Hanvey, MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath,
follows Kenny MacAskill MP in making the switch to the Alba Party.]

https://news.sky.com/story/second-mp...party-12258838

Toy Soldier · 28-03-2021, 05:13 PM

There are Salmond loyalists in the SNP, this is hardly a surprise. I did discover today though that it seems they are ONLY running in the Regional “listed rep” PR part of the election, and Salmond himself is going to be at the top of that list. In other words... even with a small proportion of the vote he’s likely to get himself in as an MSP... even if they literally only have one... and IMO that might be what the whole thing is about. Getting his own foot back in the door. The party is just a necessary stepping stone for his own selfish bull****.

bots · 28-03-2021, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

There are Salmond loyalists in the SNP, this is hardly a surprise. I did discover today though that it seems they are ONLY running in the Regional “listed rep” PR part of the election, and Salmond himself is going to be at the top of that list. In other words... even with a small proportion of the vote he’s likely to get himself in as an MSP... even if they literally only have one... and IMO that might be what the whole thing is about. Getting his own foot back in the door. The party is just a necessary stepping stone for his own selfish bull****.

it's where proportional representation falls on its head, the person at the top of the list is certain to get a seat, even if everyone in the country hates him with a passion

James · 28-03-2021, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

it's where proportional representation falls on its head, the person at the top of the list is certain to get a seat, even if everyone in the country hates him with a passion

Yeah, it is a weird system. It makes it difficult for the public to vote someone out.

Toy Soldier · 28-03-2021, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James

Yeah, it is a weird system. It makes it difficult for the public to vote someone out.

I mean... less so than FPTP surely, broader representation is sort of the point of PR, e.g. it would be very difficult for any party to ever have an overall majority in Westminster under PR.

So I don’t really get what you mean. If another party gets a higher vote share they will be in power. Under the current system it’s actually relatively difficult for the SNP to form a majority government, whereas under FPTP it would be an SNP landslide majority in every election in recent years.

Unless you mean it makes it difficult to vote out a specific MP , which is true I guess, but in theory enough pressure on the party should see them removed as a list rep.

arista · 28-03-2021, 10:13 PM

arista · 29-03-2021, 08:06 AM

Crimson Dynamo · 29-03-2021, 09:59 AM

Youtube video

Toy Soldier · 29-03-2021, 10:39 AM

My ideal scenario is probably a bit controversial at this point... if I could write the script, we'd hold off on a referendum for the time being, the EU would collapse under the weight of various -exit movements, a new, simpler economic union would form (a true free trade agreement without the rest of it) and THEN we would get Scottish Indy, with both Scotland and England being part of the aforementioned trade area.

Politically I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment because in essence I fully agree with Scottish independence, however it becomes far too complicated with England out of the EU.

In all honesty, I wish there was currently a Scottish party that was focussed on Scotland-first (

) social policies and full financial devolution within the UK. But there isn't. The viable choices are SNP and Tory and whilst I may disagree with SNP's current aggressive pursuit of Independence, I do trust them to actually give a stuff about Scottish people and Scottish problems, whereas I don't trust the Tories to do anything but privatise everything in sight, strip back rights and welfare, and leech everything down to the South of England. So SNP it is.

bots · 29-03-2021, 10:48 AM

yeah, like it or not, the amount of trade scotland does with england far outweighs what it would do with europe. Can you imagine a delivery between Scotland and England taking 2 months like it is with europe now, and all the nasty import duty etc

arista · 29-03-2021, 02:26 PM

6 have Jumped to Alba

Kenny MacAskill - East Lothian MP and a former SNP justice secretary

Neale Hanvey - Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath MP

Michelle Ferns - Glasgow City Council

Ellen McMaster - North Ayrshire Council

Caroline McAllister -West Dunbartonshire Council and national women's convener

Lynne Anderson - North Lanarkshire Council and former national equalities convener