[Jayson]

Good luck, lol.

Let's hope he wins it

[Deliverance]

Originally posted by CaudleHalbard
You're very brave to put £1000 on Marcus. Rodrigo's odds are shortening every day:

Rodrigo 5-2
Siavash 3-1
Sophie 10-3
Marcus 4-1
Charlie 12-1

Marcus isn't even in the top 3. But the top 4 are quite close admittedly.

A bet on Rod would have been safer.

Disagree obviously. Rod is to eratic and a suck up to authority. Siavash is nice but consistently boring with the same monotone voice going on and on with the classic intro of 'Guys, guys'.

Sophie is nice but dumb and is a classic bad influence on teens with her plastic boobs.

Charlie is as funny as hell but is prone to attacking and supporting the wrong people at the wrong times (idiot).

Yet Marcus to me has remained consistent, watching live feed now and Bea is still trying to whittle him down with no chance whatsoever of doing so.

This is why gambled on the dark horse. The man is a deserved winner.

[honeyloops]

Originally posted by ukturtle
Good luck with that. But I do think Rodrigo will snatch the crown this year.

Rodrigo won't win. He'll end up 3rd, or runner-up if he's lucky.

It's between Siavash/Marcus/Sophie.

[bettiepage]

LOL. I hope you lose now just for being so stupid.

[Deliverance]

Originally posted by Rice_square
LOL. I hope you lose now just for being so stupid.

Well for a person that has consistently posted... we Bea. I will statistically take your comment as a positive response.

[TheDarkHorsey]

Originally posted by Deliverance
I am sweating my socks of now. Cmon the darkhorse! Odds of 11/4 with a return of 3750.

good man, i backed marcus when he was up for eviction with niorin... i got 33-1, placed £50 on him to win outright... i'll hold my end by hitting the redial - do the same!!

[TheDarkHorsey]

Originally posted by Deliverance

Disagree obviously. Rod is to eratic and a suck up to authority. Siavash is nice but consistently boring with the same monotone voice going on and on with the classic intro of 'Guys, guys'.

Sophie is nice but dumb and is a classic bad influence on teens with her plastic boobs.

Charlie is as funny as hell but is prone to attacking and supporting the wrong people at the wrong times (idiot).

Yet Marcus to me has remained consistent, watching live feed now and Bea is still trying to whittle him down with no chance whatsoever of doing so.

This is why gambled on the dark horse. The man is a deserved winner.

great post, spot on!

[TheDarkHorsey]

... http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...her/win-market

a good site if you want to keep tabs on all the bookies odds.

[Insane_Spirit]

Originally posted by Deliverance
Well Rodrigo is 13/8
Siavash is 7/4
Marcus is 11/4

My instinct is Marcus.

I wish you luck man, but I agree with Tom - Marcus is popular here in the forum (I hope he wins), but he is an aquired taste and might not be as popular with the voting demographic. Those muppets seem to be very pro Siavash

[Big_Kahuna]

Go
Marcus, if your bet is real I have muchos respect for you. GO MARCUS

[TheDarkHorsey]

i think its a good thing marcus is around 4th fav at this point, any higher i think it would be seen as 'hype'... and that will put people off voting for the underdog....

he's gone from 7th fav - 6th fav - 5th fav, and now 4th... with only 2 and a but weeks left you could see him peak in popularity at just the right time...

[siezz]

well good luck


he was 25/1 this time last week but he is gathering a fanbase

its between rodrigo siavash and marcus

Youtube video

[siezz]

Originally posted by TheDarkHorsey

good man, i backed marcus when he was up for eviction with niorin... i got 33-1, placed £50 on him to win outright... i'll hold my end by hitting the redial - do the same!!

great thinking i cant believe i didn't do thesame

[Johann]

Originally posted by Rice_square
LOL. I hope you lose now just for being so stupid.

[TheDarkHorsey]

Originally posted by siezz

great thinking i cant believe i didn't do thesame

well, hey, 4-1 isnt too shabby

[Claymores]

Originally posted by TheDarkHorsey

well, hey, 4-1 isnt too shabby

As I don't think he realistically will win, you'd probably be wiser laying off with most of the projected winnings through Betfair and ensuring a guaranteed, tho greatly reduced, return either way.

[Chonsette]

I bet 4 grand ! (Fisher Price cash ftw!)

[BB22]

The very best of luck to you and I certainly hope you win that bet.

[BB22]

Originally posted by Claymores

As I don't think he realistically will win, you'd probably be wiser laying off with most of the projected winnings through Betfair and ensuring a guaranteed, tho greatly reduced, return either way.

Would you mind explaining that in simple terms for the betting layman, Claymores? I am kind of interested.

[28thapril]

Good luck

Hope you paid your tax up front or they could sting your winnings big time

[CaraRawr]

A grand? Good luck, man.

[Daffodil]

I'm not really that into capitalism. If I had that sort of money to burn, I would put it to a good cause.

[Claymores]

Originally posted by BB22
Would you mind explaining that in simple terms for the betting layman, Claymores? I am kind of interested.

I'll use the real world example:

TheDarkHorsey has placed a shrewd bet of £50 on Marcus back when it was 33/1. This offers a huge profit of £1650 if he wins or a £50 loss if he doesn't.

What the forum member could choose to do is to hedge now that Marcus' odds have shortened greatly:

He could go on Betfair and lay Marcus (that is to say bet against him winning) using a proportion of the notional profits from the original bet.

He could offer another punter a bet of £300 @ say 9/2 the Marcus win (at a potential cost of £1350)

If Marcus then won, the FM's GUARANTEED PROFIT would be £1650-£1350 = £300

BUT ALSO

If Marcus didn't win, the FM's FUARANTEED PROFIT would be £300 (the Betfair punters' stake) less £50 (the FM's original stake money) =£250

SO, in thiis example, £300 profit if Marcus wins, £250 profit if he doesn't win with no losing possibilities.

The amount of the lay, is of course, just an example and TheDarkHorsey could throttle that down such that he/she has the chance to win more if Marcus wins and maybe just break even (by covering the £50 stake with a £50 lay) if Marcus is not the winner.

Hope this all makes sense!!!!

[Claymores]

Originally posted by 28thapril
Good luck

Hope you paid your tax up front or they could sting your winnings big time

There has been no tax on gambling for many years, ever since some bookmakers started trading from offshore (Gibraltar and Malta for example) and it was starting to cost UK jobs amongst other things.

Phone and internet gambling made the taxation within UK a no-goer.

[Zien]

Say goodbye to your money - you might just as well have burnt it