[Calderyon]

Poll accuracy as of now (fake eviction poll included):

BBspy: 5 1/2 out of 6 ~ 91,66 %
TiBB: 4 1/2 out of 6 ~ 75 %
Tellymix: 4 1/2 out of 6 ~ 75 %
DS: 3 1/2 out of 6 ~ 58,33 %

--------------------------------------
The 1/2 point comes from the first eviction, in where all polls predicted Dexter as the evictee at first, but rightly predicted Sallie after the save on Wednesday.

Didn´t catch the second safe house voting, but i think they all were off the mark. I think they predicted either Gina/Dan or Dex/Charlie.

[Calderyon]

Poll accuracy after tonight (fake eviction poll included):

BBspy: 5 1/2 out of 7 ~ 78,57 %
TiBB: 5 1/2 out of 7 ~ 78,57 %
Tellymix: 4 1/2 out of 7 ~ 64,28 %
DS: 3 1/2 out of 7 ~ 50,00 %

--------------------------------------
The 1/2 point comes from the first eviction, in where all polls predicted Dexter as the evictee at first, but rightly predicted Sallie after the save on Wednesday.

Didn´t catch the second safe house voting, but i think they all were off the mark. I think they predicted either Gina/Dan or Dex/Charlie. There probably weren´t many polls regarding that.

[Calderyon]

Poll accuracy after tonight (fake eviction poll included):

BBspy: 6 1/2 out of 8 ~ 81,25 %
TiBB: 6 1/2 out of 8 ~ 81,25 %
Tellymix: 5 1/2 out of 8 ~ 68,75 %
DS: 3 1/2 out of 8 ~ 43,75 %

--------------------------------------
The 1/2 point comes from the first eviction, in where all polls predicted Dexter as the evictee at first, but rightly predicted Sallie after the save on Wednesday.

Didn´t catch the second safe house voting, but i think they all were off the mark. I think they predicted either Gina/Dan or Dex/Charlie. There probably weren´t many polls regarding that.

[Calderyon]

Poll accuracy after yesterday (fake eviction poll included):

BBspy: 7 1/2 out of 9 ~ 83,33 %
TiBB: 7 1/2 out of 9 ~ 83,33 %
Tellymix: 6 1/2 out of 9 ~ 72,22 %
DS: 3 1/2 out of 9 ~ 38,88 %

--------------------------------------
The 1/2 point comes from the first eviction, in where all polls predicted Dexter as the evictee at first, but rightly predicted Sallie after the save on Wednesday.

Didn´t catch the second safe house voting, but i think they all were off the mark. I think they predicted either Gina/Dan or Dex/Charlie. There probably weren´t many polls regarding that.

[CaudleHalbard]

The TiBB poll has each of the 3 with, as near as makes no difference, one-third of the vote each.

This is a VERY different picture from the bookies.

[CaudleHalbard]

Have you tried working out a weighted average for all the polls?

[Calderyon]

^No, i havent. But i can try...

[Calderyon]

All of the polls votes added (without weighing and with Total BB):

Dan 5780 38,65 %
Sophie 5373 35,93 %
Sam 3801 25,41 %

Total votes: 14954

All of the polls votes added (without weighing and without Total BB):

Dan 5095 37,98 %
Sophie 4879 36,37 %
Sam 3441 25,65 %

Total votes: 13415

All of the polls votes added (with weighing based on poll correctness as of date in this series):

Dan 5039 37,83 %
Sophie 4860 36,49 %
Sam 3421 25,68 %

Total votes: 13320

[Calderyon]

Average off the polls (without weighing and without Total BB):

Sophie 3179 37,31 %
Dan 3084 36,19 %
Sam 2259 26,50 %

Total votes: 8521

Average off the polls (without weighing and with Total BB):

Dan 5232 38,13 %
Sophie 4978 36,28 %
Sam 3513 25,60 %

Total votes: 13723

All of the polls votes added (with weighing based on the total votes on each poll and without Total BB):

Dan 5608 38 %
Sophie 5285 36 %
Sam 3711 25 %

Total votes: 14604

Average off the polls (with weighing based on the total votes on each poll and without Total BB):

Sophie 3161 37,03 %
Dan 3120 36,56 %
Sam 2254 26,41 %

Total votes: 8536

Average off the polls (with weighing based on poll correctness as of date in this series without Total BB):

Sophie 3233 37,29 %
Dan 3133 36,13 %
Sam 2305 26,58 %

Total votes:8671

[Calderyon]

To win BB polls:

bbspy:

Who do you want to win Big Brother 2013 Secrets & Lies?

Dexter 31%
Gina 30%
Sam 27%
Charlie 6%
Jack and Joe 6%

2,169 Votes

TiBB:

Big Brother 2013: Who do you want to win?

Dexter 38.4%
Gina 31.4%
Sam 21.0%
Charlie 6.5%
Jack & Joe 2.7%

Total votes: 978

DS:

Who do you want to win?

Dexter 405 47.82%
Gina 245 28.93%
Sam 116 13.70%
Charlie 47 5.55%
Jack & Joe 34 4.01%

Voters: 847

Tellymix:

Big Brother 2013: Who should WIN?

Gina Rio (31%, 710 Votes)
Sam Evans (30%, 703 Votes)
Dexter Koh (30%, 691 Votes)
Jack and Joe (5%, 116 Votes)
Charlie Travers (4%, 105 Votes)

Total Voters: 2,325

[Calderyon]

Updated To win BB polls:

bbspy:

Who do you want to win Big Brother 2013 Secrets & Lies?

Dexter 31.29% (1,373 votes)
Sam 30.38% (1,333 votes)
Gina 27.05% (1,187 votes)
Jack and Joe 6.38% (280 votes)
Charlie 4.9% (215 votes)

Total Votes: 4,388

TiBB:

Big Brother 2013: Who do you want to win?

Dexter 36.4%
Gina 28.0%
Sam 24.6%
Charlie 7.2%
Jack & Joe 3.8%

Total votes: 2624

DS:

Who do you want to win?

Dexter 650 45.77%
Gina 406 28.59%
Sam 220 15.49%
Charlie 75 5.28%
Jack & Joe 69 4.86%

Voters: 1420

Tellymix:

Big Brother 2013: Who should WIN?

Sam Evans (32%, 3,049 Votes)
Dexter Koh (29%, 2,777 Votes)
Gina Rio (27%, 2,551 Votes)
Jack and Joe (7%, 648 Votes)
Charlie Travers (5%, 448 Votes)

Total Voters: 9,473

[esbo]

Great work!!

I had Dexter to win at 7-1

I got cold feet and just put a cover bet of Sam so that if he wins I make a tiny profit overall, if Dexter wins I make a tidy profit but reduced by my cover bet on Sam.

If Gina wins I am shafted

In future you might considering including the bookmakers prediction using the best available odds form somewhere like oddchecker?

[Calderyon]

Originally Posted by esbo

Great work!!

I had Dexter to win at 7-1

I got cold feet and just put a cover bet of Sam so that if he wins I make a tiny profit overall, if Dexter wins I make a tidy profit but reduced by my cover bet on Sam.

If Gina wins I am shafted

In future you might considering including the bookmakers prediction using the best available odds form somewhere like oddchecker?

Well, they have the bets placed upon a housemate percentage, so yeah. Why not?

Maybe i should have done it at the start...

[esbo]

Well bye bye Gina, looks like I will not get shafted. Hope Dexter wins cos I an £5 up if he does, but the betting says Sam.

Will find out soon enough!!