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Terpsichore · 27-08-2007, 04:53 PM

Not much change since mid-day for the top two, but Liam's average has slipped further, from 12.90 to 13.72.

The others fighting for scraps. Barring a major development, those will be the three top contenders at the end of the week, at least with the bookies. Probably also with the public, but you can expect some discrepancy. But the gap now between the twins and Brian, and between Brian and Liam, is big enough that it would take a very big divergence of punters' opinion from public opinion to upset the winning order.

Terpsichore · 28-08-2007, 07:10 AM

This is how the average odds have changed over the last three days:

Twins 1.33 1.32 1.29
Brian 3.32 3.33 3.57
Liam 12.90 13.27 20.0

Twins odds continue to shorten, Brian slips slightly, Liam slips drastically.

Liam is the surprise. I can't think of any reason for his sudden decline.

bananarama · 28-08-2007, 10:06 AM

Ladbrooks today (Tuesday)

Twins 1.17
Brian 4.5

Captain.Remy · 28-08-2007, 10:07 AM

Now it's obvious and confirmed that the twins get the money !

Terpsichore · 28-08-2007, 01:40 PM

Twins continue to advance. Now the longest odds you can get on them is 1.3 from Bluesqu. Average now 1.23.

Brian's odds continue to slip, now averagely 4.03

Liam's average currently 18.58.

All three still well clear of the others. Lowest odds you can get on any of them is 51.00 on Carole and Ziggy.

With a big gap between the leaders and the rest, and the gap between the three leaders widening, there is not much to get excited about. There is no fast finisher, like Aisleyne last year who closed rapidly on Glyn in the last week before falling back in the final day. The colour-code system on oddschecker still shows that we can expect twins' odds to shorten still further and Brian and Liam to lengthen. It's more of the same. This looks to me like the final result in terms of the top three.

With the other three the odds should not be taken as a reliable guide. When odds go over 50.00 it's Mickey Mouse figures. Any of them could finish fourth, but it will probably be Ziggy.

CassetteFinger · 28-08-2007, 01:52 PM

Come on the TWINS

alex123 · 28-08-2007, 02:04 PM

i think
twinnies will win but im not counting out the other 2 just yet,out of the 3 i want liam then the twins

________
Coach purses

GlitterEyes · 28-08-2007, 03:43 PM

I think the twins winning is the most predictable as they don't cause anyone any harm and nobody has any valid reasons for disliking them like they do with all the other HM.

CassetteFinger · 28-08-2007, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by GlitterEyes
I think the twins winning is the most predictable as they don't cause anyone any harm and nobody has any valid reasons for disliking them like they do with all the other HM.

Yes and thats why they should win

Amy21 · 28-08-2007, 07:03 PM

What are the latest odds today???. Are the twins still 1st favourite to win the show???. Someone please tell me I would appreciate it alot.

Sticks · 28-08-2007, 07:36 PM

From Paddy Power

Twins 1/5
Brian 10/3
Liam 18/1
Ziggy 50/1
Carole 80/1
Jonty 100/1

I would not trust the odds now, as it was pointed out a lot of the voters are below 18, and so their vote wont show up there and they are said to be in the Brian camp. The bookmakers must be getting the bets from older people who are fewer in number.

Although I would like the twins to win, from what has been said in the last 24 to 48 hours, it is looking less likely what ever the odds down the bookies are saying.

Does our resident expert Terpsichore know if the bookmakers know how to factor in the vote of those to young to place a bet?

CassetteFinger · 28-08-2007, 07:48 PM

Im 16 im in the samanda camp.

sXcLiLMiNx · 28-08-2007, 07:56 PM

who do you want to win Big Brother 2007???

amanda and sam 1278
brian 1181
carole 436
jonty 420
liam 1212
ziggy 1014

just thought id post this poll from a friends myspace

sXcLiLMiNx · 28-08-2007, 07:57 PM

going to post the percentages now,they did'nt let me copy them first time :S

Terpsichore · 29-08-2007, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sticks

Does our resident expert Terpsichore know if the bookmakers know how to factor in the vote of those to young to place a bet?

If they're old enough to use mobile phones and old enough to vote, they're also old enough to take part in opinion polls. No doubt there are many of them posting regularly on this site. And therefore there is no need to think of them as below the radar in terms of getting their views across.

As I said in a previous post, the bookies pay close attention to internet chat forums, and watch all BB-related programmes on TV, and study newspaper coverage. They also commission polls of their own. So they're well clued up about what people are thinking. And, even if it were true that the youngest voters are outside the range of the opinion canvassers, there is no reason to think their votes would be for Brian rather than the twins. I would expect all three of the leading contenders to be popular with that age group. The ones who would suffer would be the other three, Carole, Ziggy and Jonty.

However, as I said in another post, public opinion is not the only factor that determines odds. If money starts piling onto a particular contestant, their odds will shorten even if their popularity with the public remains the same. The bookies have to do that to protect themselves. So sometimes the betting bandwagon gets ahead of the public, and makes a contestant look more popular than they really are.

That has probably happened in the case of the twins. Their odds have shortened drastically in the last few days, and this evening I found the average across several bookies had dipped below 1.2. I doubt very much that that reflects a sudden surge of public support, which is probably the same as it was a week ago when the odds were around 1.5. Mostly the shortening odds are due to a surge of enthusiasm from the punters. For that reason, where you get odds on two contestants that are still within touching distance of each other, it would be unwise to assume that the contestant with the lower odds has the better chance of winning. But that doesn't apply in this case, because Brian is no longer in touching distance. His odds have gone over 4.0 and are still lengthening. It's a big gap. Public opinion could turn out to be at variance with the betting trend by quite a big percentage, and the result would still be the same. Barring a major disaster, the twins' victory is a done deal.

CassetteFinger · 29-08-2007, 12:58 AM

Sam & Amanda 1 - 5
Brian 10 - 3
Liam 18 - 1
Ziggy 50 - 1
Carole 80 - 1
Jonty 100 - 1
Any Other (Not Listed) 250 - 1

Odds

sXcLiLMiNx · 29-08-2007, 01:26 AM

so basically the odds are saying the noone out of the trio of twins,brian and liam have absolutley no chance in hell of winning

cepb · 29-08-2007, 01:28 AM

No they've got the best chance of winning.

Sticks · 29-08-2007, 05:24 AM

Terpsichore, I think I was having a wobble, similar to Red Wednesday in 1992, the impression given on BBLB and from a poster here that there was a hidden Brian block vote that would overwhelm the twins vote.

It had me in a state of depression.

But from what you said, the odds at the bookies could be deceptive in gauging actual voting patterns?

Captain.Remy · 29-08-2007, 07:22 AM

I'm really really glad they are faves !!!

bananarama · 29-08-2007, 10:13 AM

I don't bet on BB or anything for that matter myself but would like to know what those that bet on BB are likely to do.....

Meaning.....If some one bets on lets say the twins because you think they will win regradles of how you feel about tham. Would that bet then be supported with a vote for the twins in order to help increase the chances of winning the bet.....

You see what I am leading into..........In other words does betting cause more voting for the chosen one than if betting did not exist!!!!

Terpsichore · 29-08-2007, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sticks
Terpsichore, I think I was having a wobble, similar to Red Wednesday in 1992, the impression given on BBLB and from a poster here that there was a hidden Brian block vote that would overwhelm the twins vote.

It had me in a state of depression.

But from what you said, the odds at the bookies could be deceptive in gauging actual voting patterns?

Yes, the odds at bookies can be deceptive for reasons I gave in my last post - i.e. gamblers start following each other, creating their own bandwagon. But that's only true up to a point. If it gets too far out of line with the reality, it soon corrects itself. Bookies's odds are often wrong, but not by the huge amount that they'd have to be this year, if the result was an upset.

I doubt very much that there's any hidden Brian block vote, or not one that will make much difference. The accuracy of polls etc, is something people like me had to worry about last year, when the race for second was a close contest. Aisleyne's last two weeks was a sprint finish that took her right up to Glyn on the table. IIRC, they were level-pegging until a couple of days before the Friday. Could have cost me a lot of money if she'd finished ahead. But when odds levels are as they are this year, with Brian well adrift, any inaccuracies in polls or betting odds isn't going to make a lot of difference.

What can make a difference - but not this year, I think - is "second votes". When the vote is spread between 6 contestants, you have to ask what happens after a contestant has been evicted and lines are still open. Some of that contestant's supporters will then transfer their support to another contestant. If things go as I expect them to, Carole, Ziggy and Jonty will be gone first, and their combined support might have been 25% of the total so far. If all of them voted again for their second favourite, that can make a difference. In the time available, it's probably not huge, but it could have been the decisive factor last year in winning 2nd place for Glyn. There was no large clique of "Glyn haters" - i.e. people who would vote initially for their favourite (e.g. Richard) and then after he was evicted they'd start voting for whoever was Glyn's main rival. But there was a large block of "Aisleyne haters" who would have given their second votes to Glyn. Just about everyone liked him, even if he wasn't their favourite.

I can only guess how big second votes are as a factor, but I would say it favours the Twins rather than Brian. My perception is that the "Brian-hating" block is bigger than the "Twin hating" block, and if that's true, second votes will favour them more than him. But I think the contest would have to be a lot closer before second votes would make a difference to the result.

Terpsichore · 29-08-2007, 11:06 AM

Here is the progression of average odds for the last five days.

Twins - 1.33 -- 1.32 -- 1.29 -- 1.29 --- 1.23 --- 1.19
Brian -- 3.32 -- 3.33 -- 3.57 -- 3.57 --- 4.03 --- 4.51
Liam - 12.90 - 13.27 - 18.29 - 20.00 - 18.58 - 18.81

Twins' surge continues. Brian dipped badly in the last two days. Liam holding steady at the moment, but the colour-coding on oddschecker shows he might start advancing, closing the gap on Brian. Too late to catch him, probably, but not impossible. After a bad week, he might be turning the corner in terms of popularity. It usually takes a few days for punters' odds to catch up with a mood swing, so he might be closer to Brian in reality than the figures imply.