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Old 08-05-2015, 12:17 AM #101
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What a disaster this is...I nearly threw up at that exit poll, unbelievable

Desperately hoping there's a margin of error 10 or so seats either way for Labour/Tories so there's an anti-Tory majority and Ed can have a go at putting a Queen's Speech forward

On a lighter note, Jeremy's graphics looking even more amazing this time and I love that him and Emily can forecast actual seats with the exit poll
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:44 AM #102
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I don't really follow UK politics. But can someone answer a few questions for me?

1. Are the exit polls usually accurate?

2. Is there a certain amount a party needs?

3. Also say for example (I have no idea about this so it may sound stupid) the conservatives and labour finished equal, would they have to fight for smaller parties to create a government?
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:44 AM #103
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:47 AM #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceman View Post
I don't really follow UK politics. But can someone answer a few questions for me?

1. Are the exit polls usually accurate?

2. Is there a certain amount a party needs?

3. Also say for example (I have no idea about this so it may sound stupid) the conservatives and labour finished equal, would they have to fight for smaller parties to create a government?

1. variable, but they were very accurate at the last election in 2010

2. Yes, they need enough seats so that they will win most of the votes in parliament as they pass legislation

3. Yes, they would try and get agreement for other parties to vote with them

Last edited by bots; 08-05-2015 at 12:47 AM.
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:48 AM #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceman View Post
I don't really follow UK politics. But can someone answer a few questions for me?

1. Are the exit polls usually accurate?

2. Is there a certain amount a party needs?

3. Also say for example (I have no idea about this so it may sound stupid) the conservatives and labour finished equal, would they have to fight for smaller parties to create a government?
1. Last two election they were very accurate. This one will likely be less because of the unpredictability but even if vaguely accurate it will be remarkable

2. 326 seats is needed for a majority in theory, in reality 323 will do because Sinn Fein don't take their seats in the Commons so don't vote.

3. Yep pretty much, even if the exit polls are right the Tories will need the support of other parties for a majority be that in a formal coalition or just getting their backing issue-by-issue
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:49 AM #106
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we agreed
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:50 AM #107
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This is the shy Tory vote, the people who won't admit it to the polls or in public because they're afraid of being lambasted as hating the poor, being snooty rich boys etc.

Sorry but everything is pointing to an absolutely disastrous night for Labour. Miliband cannot stay if this is how it turns out.
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:51 AM #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitontheslide View Post
1. variable, but they were very accurate at the last election in 2010

2. Yes, they need enough seats so that they will win most of the votes in parliament as they pass legislation

3. Yes, they would try and get agreement for other parties to vote with them
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTVN View Post
1. Last two election they were very accurate. This one will likely be less because of the unpredictability but even if vaguely accurate it will be remarkable

2. 326 seats is needed for a majority in theory, in reality 323 will do because Sinn Fein don't take their seats in the Commons so don't vote.

3. Yep pretty much, even if the exit polls are right the Tories will need the support of other parties for a majority be that in a formal coalition or just getting their backing issue-by-issue
Thank you two for explaining to me.

So if labour got less by say 5 they could still go to power by getting the amount they need? Or am I way way off???
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:51 AM #109
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I'm really disappointed for the Lib Dems. Worst case scenario I thought would be 17-20 seats, the way their vote is collapsing nationwide is astonishing
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:51 AM #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTVN View Post
This is the shy Tory vote, the people who won't admit it to the polls or in public because they're afraid of being lambasted as hating the poor, being snooty rich boys etc.

Sorry but everything is pointing to an absolutely disastrous night for Labour. Miliband cannot stay if this is how it turns out.
i couldnt believe kinnock saying voters were delusional or the other labour guy saying Ed had exceeded expectations ... amazing
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:51 AM #111
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bye @ Nuneaton
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:52 AM #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceman View Post
Thank you two for explaining to me.

So if labour got less by say 5 they could still go to power by getting the amount they need? Or am I way way off???
Yep that was the talk earlier this week that even if Labour had less seats they might be able to govern because they could rely on more support from the House as a whole, mainly because they would have SNP backing on most issues

It's looking like the Tories could have a big enough lead that they will be comfortably in the driving seat though

Last edited by MTVN; 08-05-2015 at 12:53 AM.
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:53 AM #113
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Wow, 3% swing to Tories in Nuneaton....labour were really hoping to turn this seat around.
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:54 AM #114
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Those 200,000 votes that went missing from that van turning up?....
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:54 AM #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitontheslide View Post
i couldnt believe kinnock saying voters were delusional or the other labour guy saying Ed had exceeded expectations ... amazing
Labour do seem to be becoming increasingly desperate as the night has gone on. They're now all parroting the line that "the government has lost a majority" which is hardly a consolation when the Tories are set to increase their seats and Labour reduce theirs
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:57 AM #116
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Hell yeah....here for a Tory majority.
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:58 AM #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTVN View Post
Yep that was the talk earlier this week that even if Labour had less seats they might be able to govern because they could rely on more support from the House as a whole, mainly because they would have SNP backing on most issues

It's looking like the Tories could have a big enough lead that they will be comfortably in the driving seat though
Okay thanks. Like I said I wasn't too sure as it's not my home country. From an outsiders point of view Ed would have had my vote. Hopefully you guys will take an interest in our referendum in a few weeks. /offtopic
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Old 08-05-2015, 12:59 AM #118
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The Lib Dems are crashing down tonight.
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Old 08-05-2015, 01:01 AM #119
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Quote:
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Okay thanks. Like I said I wasn't too sure as it's not my home country. From an outsiders point of view Ed would have had my vote. Hopefully you guys will take an interest in our referendum in a few weeks. /offtopic
That the gay marriage one? Yeah it sounds like its all on track to pass easily which is great news, hope it proves that way
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Old 08-05-2015, 01:02 AM #120
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Looking like no reduced uni fees
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Old 08-05-2015, 01:04 AM #121
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Lets all pray for my boy Danny Alexander guys
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Old 08-05-2015, 01:06 AM #122
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I can't remember if I posted it on here but a few weeks ago I did fear that a slight Tory majority may happen, and it now looks likely

Awful night. And I feel sorry for the Lib Dems, the better of the coalition partners watering down what could've been an even nastier government and they're bearing the brunt of it whilst the Tories do better than last time. Astounding
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Old 08-05-2015, 01:06 AM #123
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Nicola not looking too happy....even as a winner.
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Old 08-05-2015, 01:07 AM #124
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Quote:
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That the gay marriage one? Yeah it sounds like its all on track to pass easily which is great news, hope it proves that way
Yeah that's the one. I won't get complacent about though. If we do we will be the first country to pass it by overall majority from a vote, which would be nice.
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Old 08-05-2015, 01:08 AM #125
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Quote:
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Lets all pray for my boy Danny Alexander guys
think he needs a miracle, a lib dem collapse seems to be coming true
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