[Spike]

So people who vote for McCain are morons, get real
Everyone has a different opinion and obviously McCain appeals to alot of people. Everyone doesn't have to think that Obama is some kind of God who is going to make everything better in the world.
The reason why I like McCain over Obama is that I think he will deliver on his promises and policies and make moves which will be better in the long term for America and the world even if it goes against what people want. Whereas Obama, i'm unsure if he will deliver and if he is strong enough to make those big decisions.

[Spike]

Most of the latest figures are
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Its getting interesting now, if somehow Obama loses some support in the next week then maybe nobody could call it. But I do worry how many of the swing states McCain can grab

[Ruth]

Originally posted by Spike
These Obama fans are crazy. After a poll showed McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio, the company who did this poll have received death threats

I have seen a few stories today which seem more for McCain, today is the first day in a few weeks where I believe McCain could win it but its still a big ask

And many McCain fans have been shouting "Kill him" about Obama, at McCain rallies. I've seen the footage myself. So I would say those particular McCain fans are crazy too.

Goodness knows what polls you are looking at. Obama is up by about 2.3 points in Florida and about 6.1 points in Ohio (that's the average taken from a load of polls). We study about 6 or 7 different ones every day, all of which still have Obama winning comfortably. Incidentally, if even McCain did win Florida and Ohio, he would probably still lose. Obama would still probably have over 300 electoral votes.

Averaging the polls out, Obama is up by 8 points on average.

Incidentally, I would not call anyone a moron for supporting McCain. I don't understand why they would support him. And as for Palin...don't get me started.

[Ruth]

Originally posted by Spike
Most of the latest figures are
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Its getting interesting now, if somehow Obama loses some support in the next week then maybe nobody could call it. But I do worry how many of the swing states McCain can grab

There's no point just looking at one poll. Taking all the polls together and averaging them out...

Obama - 50.4
McCain - 42.4

Still a comfortable lead for Obama.

And in the last 7 major polls to be released, McCain hasn't polled above 44, and Obama hasn't polled below 50. There are some very partisan polls coming out, which just cannot be taken into serious consideration. I can only guess that it was one of those polls where you got your figures?

[M X]

Supporting,

hmm..who supports gay marriage?

[M X]

...and that Sarah Palin is a bitch.

[Spike]

Originally posted by Ruth

There's no point just looking at one poll. Taking all the polls together and averaging them out...

Obama - 50.4
McCain - 42.4

Still a comfortable lead for Obama.

And in the last 7 major polls to be released, McCain hasn't polled above 44, and Obama hasn't polled below 50. There are some very partisan polls coming out, which just cannot be taken into serious consideration. I can only guess that it was one of those polls where you got your figures?

urm I looked at about 3 polls all were about the same figures I gave
but the few I did look at might have been favouring McCain

[Fom]

Originally posted by Spike
So people who vote for McCain are morons, get real
Everyone has a different opinion and obviously McCain appeals to alot of people. Everyone doesn't have to think that Obama is some kind of God who is going to make everything better in the world.
The reason why I like McCain over Obama is that I think he will deliver on his promises and policies and make moves which will be better in the long term for America and the world even if it goes against what people want. Whereas Obama, i'm unsure if he will deliver and if he is strong enough to make those big decisions.

Well I think people are morons for liking him because he is also a complete moron, I admit I probably havent been following this like you but I have kept fairly up to date with it and everything I have watched from him just makes me hate him more, for one his whole 'Game plan' is pathetic and Obama just makes him look so stupid, spreading lies about Obama because he cant beat him in politics. His plans are realistic but they are no good, he has no idea what he is talking about, he is going on about lowering taxes but where the hell is the money gonna come from to do that? At last Obama has admitted he is going to raise taxes and some people and cut it on others... his plans to end this tragedy in the share markets are so much more substantial than McCain. People tend to be following him because they cant believe Obama is as good as he says, so they go into the rubbish one because at least he can meet his demands.
This man is so typical white trash its unbelievable, he hates gay people, he is 100% behind the war and he doesnt respect our troops. He cant stand on his own 2 feet and he needs a team of people around him to help him out in situations.

I personally dont trust him, and if he became president, the whole of America would be in SUCH a mess, the country wouldnt change (Which it needs) and it will just be going in a downward spiral until someone decided it was time to help out. Obama is for change and thats what the country needs.

And to answer the post above about gay marriage, neither are technically for it, as its not down to the president to make such a law its down to the individual states. Obama mentioned he will try his best and is all for it though, McCain on the other hand is just like George Bush and is against gay marriage. When confronted on the Ellen Chat show, he tended to avoid answering her question.

[Ruth]

Spike - what do you think about the McCain fans who have been shouting "Kill him" about Obama? Personally I think anyone who makes such threats - no matter what their political affiliation - is bang out of order.

As soon as I read your post, I went onto about 7 different polls. All of them have Obama winning, with various amounts of electoral votes.

McCain can win Ohio. He can win Florida. He has to do a heck of a lot more than that to have a chance of winning the election. I'm not as scared of him winning as I am of Palin. You would think that considering how much she bangs on about her foreign policy experience (apparently based on the fact that she can see Russia out of her window), she would have known who the Russian president is. But no. She got that wrong. You would think that she would know that the President does not control the Senate. But no. She got that wrong. You would think that she would know that the UN is not American land, but neutral ground. But no. She got that wrong. I despair.

[Spike]

Originally posted by Ruth
Spike - what do you think about the McCain fans who have been shouting "Kill him" about Obama? Personally I think anyone who makes such threats - no matter what their political affiliation - is bang out of order.

I agree, its bang out of order and these people are a disgrace to the Republican Campaign. These people have to realise that McCain is currently going to lose and they aren't helping him.

[Ruth]

Truth is, McCain wanted to be the GOP candidate in 2000. And he should have been - he was far more centralist then than he is now, and he would have made a better President than Bush (admittedly that's not saying a lot). Don't get me wrong - Gore was my pick in 2000; I so wanted him to win - and the Presidency was stolen from him. Gore would have made a bloody good President, and I still get angry when I think about the whole Florida debacle. If McCain had been the GOP candidate in 2000, he almost certainly would have won the Presidency with quite a large margin - it would not have gone down to the wire, as it did with Gore and Bush. But I believe McCain has had his day. He did not get the nomination then, and now it's too late. I don't think McCain is a bad man (although I believe that Palin is a bad woman), but I just can't get on board with his beliefs and his policies. I don't believe that Obama is the second coming or anything like that. But what it comes down to is this: the next President will be either Barack Obama or John McCain. And I would rather take Barack Obama than John McCain. Simple as. Neither of them are perfect, because they are human. But I would rather take Barack with his human faults, than McCain with his human faults.

McCain and Obama actually get on quite well behind the scenes. McCain and Biden are good friends! But they happen to disagree on their policies. I like Biden - I think he will make a good VP. I do not believe Palin will make a good VP, no way, no how. Many of her own party don't believe it; and even her own mother in law has said that she is not qualified for the job, and that she (the mother in law) is voting for Obama!!

Sorry if I'm rambling - it's late, and I have had a few glasses of red wine!

[Z]

Originally posted by Ruth
I still get angry when I think about the whole Florida debacle.

Me too! It was such a blatant display of discrimination against black people! That whole election stank of corruption.

I'm glad to see Obama pulling ahead in polls, I really hope that he gets into power. I can't believe how soon it is 'til we find out who is going to be the next president of the USA!

[Ruth]

Anchorage is the biggest town in Alaska (Palin's home state). Anchorage Daily News is endorsing Obama. Bit of a kick in the teeth for Palin.

She has also upset a lot of her Republican supporters, because in the middle of the 'credit crunch' she keeps banging on about being a normal American just like them, and how she understands the difficulties they face at this time of economic downturn. So they are a bit peed off that she has spent $150,000 on new clothes since being named VP nominee.

I am surprised that nobody has mentioned her husband Todd's affiliation with the AIP - Alaskan Independence Party. He was a member of this group for 7 years - a group who wanted Alaska to be separate from the rest of the US, and who declared the US government their enemy. A group who less than two years ago, Sarah Palin gave a big shout out to during a speech, when she told them to "keep up the good work."

[Z]

I just don't understand why McCain chose Sarah Palin, of all people. He clearly didn't think that one through. I understand his logic, he wanted an attractive "Mom" who would soak up the non-Party affiliated female voters who would have voted for Clinton, but he's picked a woman who's a borderline religious zealot. She's not well informed about a lot of policy areas, and she's been shown up in speeches because of the gaps in her knowledge. Why has he chosen her as his running mate? I don't get it.

[Ruth]

As things currently stand, Obama has an average of over 300 electoral votes (he needs 270 to win). He is also leading in 5 out of the 6 toss up states - but the way things are, he could lose all of the toss up states and still win the election. Currently there is a 95.7% chance that Obama will win

[Rory]

I'll be running. Just fill in my name on the "fill in" ballot.
Thank you!

[Spike]

I never thought I would say this but I am starting to like Obama and I kinda want him to win

[Bells]

He's definitely likeable. All I worry about is that this public front some voters have won't last too long. Can we really trust polls? By that I mean... they may well say they fully support Obama now in order to look like they support change, but when it comes to the actual voting itself, perhaps they won't be able to bring themselves to vote for a Barack Obama.

This is what I've heard some people say, and I have to admit I agree to an extent - as much as it scares me. It's happened before, after all - e.g. with Harold Washington and Tom Bradley. And with others, such as Douglas Wilder and David Dinkins... they were leading by many points to start with, but then only narrowly gained victory. It's just a bit worrying.

[Spike]

I think its going to be alot closer than anyone thinks and it could go either way. One of them will just edge it and at the moment I think it will be McCain

[Ruth]

Originally posted by Spike
I think its going to be alot closer than anyone thinks and it could go either way. One of them will just edge it and at the moment I think it will be McCain

McCain is losing his chance by the day.

To get a more accurate look at the polls, you need to look at the state by state polls, rather than the overall ones. Obama is clearly pulling ahead. I do believe it will be a lot closer on the night than it currently looks, but I still think Obama will win. Even top Republican supporters and staunch Republicans like Carl Rove are predicting an easy win for Obama.

Ash - I understand exactly what you are saying. However, the people who wouldn't vote for Obama for that reason would probably not vote for a Democrat anyway.

Obama could easily lose most of the toss up states and still win the election. This election will be decided on electoral votes, not the 'popular' vote.

[Ruth]

For anyone interested in the election, this is a cool little site....

fivethirtyeight

[James]

Here is a list of other candidates (i.e not Democrat or Republican) standing in this election...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_p...ndidates,_2008

[Ruth]

Another interesting site here:

RealClearPolitics

[Ruth]

Originally posted by Ash
He's definitely likeable. All I worry about is that this public front some voters have won't last too long. Can we really trust polls? By that I mean... they may well say they fully support Obama now in order to look like they support change, but when it comes to the actual voting itself, perhaps they won't be able to bring themselves to vote for a Barack Obama.

This is what I've heard some people say, and I have to admit I agree to an extent - as much as it scares me. It's happened before, after all - e.g. with Harold Washington and Tom Bradley. And with others, such as Douglas Wilder and David Dinkins... they were leading by many points to start with, but then only narrowly gained victory. It's just a bit worrying.

I think he would have more of a challenge if his opponent (for want of a better word) was the incumbent President, which of course is not the case here.

The Bradley Effect is kind of negated by the amount of people who have said that they will vote for Obama purely because he is black (just to make it clear - I don't agree with voting or not voting for anyone based on their skin colour alone), so there will undoubtedly be some who won't vote for Obama because he is black, but times have changed since the Bradley days and the Washington days (although I am not pretending that true equality truly exists), and these days, positive discrimination comes more into play. And as I said earlier, a lot of voters have said that they will be voting for Obama because of his colour.

[Ruth]

If McCain wins two thirds of the undecided voters (and he is unlikely to win that many), it will still only amount to one point in the polls. I don't see McCain winning this - no way, no how. Especially not now that there is a load of infighting in the Republican camp. They are not at all happy with Palin. I bet McCain is wishing he had thought his choice of running partner through a lot more carefully.