[scottyd73]

I think for the 1st time this series the bookies have got the next eviction wrong. They have Marcus as the dead cert to go but i don't think that will be the case.
Freddie who i have liked in the past is too much a drama queen now and adds little to the show.
Marcus on the other hand says it like it is doesn't care who he annoys and rattles a lot of cages even when he is trying not he can't help himself.
That performance from Bea last night was quite something but Marcus stayed calm and just got his point across I think if he goes the series will be over but if Freddie left nothing much would change and i'd keep watching.
Just for the record i'm not really a huge fan of either Freddie or Marcus this has been 1st year i've not had a favorite housemate.

[The-Resistance!]

Bookies very rarely get it wrong, espescially to this degree. They pay so many researchers etc thats how they make there money!

[Daffodil]

Marcus will be a joy in the studio. I can't wait to hear him have free reign of the mic

[*mazedsalv**]

I actually dont know what will happen anymore.

[dbfs]

Yes, if he does go at least we will have a good interview - I would love them to evict him and then tomorrow for him to walk back through the diary room doors the expression on their faces would be brilliant

[Claymores]

Bookies have not opened incorrectly on any one vs one eviction since BB7.

Moreover, every credible polls shows Marcus going.

It's a done deal - it's down to percentage guesses now - I'm going 55% Marcus

[Patricia4]

I think Marcus will go.

[*mazedsalv**]

Originally posted by Claymores
Bookies have not opened incorrectly on any one vs one eviction since BB7.

Moreover, every credible polls shows Marcus going.

It's a done deal - it's down to percentage guesses now - I'm going 55% Marcus

Im sure that Steph's eviction last years odds opened with Mario being fave to be evicted all through the week.

[Claymores]

Originally posted by *mazedsalv**

Im sure that Steph's eviction last years odds opened with Mario being fave to be evicted all through the week.

Wrong - Steph opened 1/3 fave - it was just that mug punters daftly pushed the odds in the other direction. (as high as 7/1 and serious gamblers drank champagne on the mugs' money for weeks after)

If there's one thing I do know a lot off without even having to check, it's opening eviction odds.

Mug punters have actually pushed the odds the wrong way on several occasions after the bookies opened the market correctly - Jade (1st Eviction in BBCH) and both Steph and Lisa in BB9 come immediately to mind.

[BB-Daz]

Think about all the 1000s of punters who backed money on freddie when he was down as the favourite to win. You think they are gonna vote him out now??? Of course not so the odds are obviously going to be in his favour.

[LipticBoven]

Bookies odds are quite largly effected by the number of bets they think they are gunna get for each outcome.

At the end of the day bookies are out to make a profit, even if the bookies felt it was 50/50, if they believed or started getting a lot more bets backing freddie then marcus then they would increase freddies odds, therefore reducing the payout if freddie does stay.

The odds bookies choose are designed to try and make them the most profit not to try and predict the futhure.

[Claymores]

Originally posted by BB-Daz
Think about all the 1000s of punters who backed money on freddie when he was down as the favourite to win. You think they are gonna vote him out now??? Of course not so the odds are obviously going to be in his favour.

I referred to the opening odds before punters have any impact through market forces. Every single bookmaker opened Marcus clear fave..........in realitry there have been only slight movements either way and we're now just about back to the opening postion.

[88Paul99]

A lot of wrong stuff here about bookies hiring researchers, punters' vote making a difference.

The gap (never large) between them is closing, if tonight is a bad highlight's show for Freddie he could be out, there is no universal law preventing that. And there is plenty of precedent.

[Claymores]

Originally posted by 88Paul99
A lot of wrong stuff here about bookies hiring researchers, punters' vote making a difference.

The gap (never large) between them is closing, if tonight is a bad highlight's show for Freddie he could be out, there is no universal law preventing that. And there is plenty of precedent.

Cite one example in a 'normal eviction' in any form of BB sine BB7. The truth is the bookmakers have made better use of intelligence sources in recent years hence why they've never opened incorrectly on any type of 'normal eviction' since Scouser Mikey in BB7

[Chels]

Bookies will be right again.
Most people want Freddie to stay in as all the other HMs think he's gonna go, and they all hate him.
So voters will want to p*ss them all off

[BB-Daz]

Ive done ok out of eviction bets this year apart from the Hira eviction, i had Ł40 on Lisa to go Ive got Ł20 on Marcus leaving tonight.

[Claymores]

Originally posted by BB-Daz
Ive done ok out of eviction bets this year apart from the Hira eviction, i had Ł40 on Lisa to go Ive got Ł20 on Marcus leaving tonight.

You'll be fine - trust me

[88Paul99]

Originally posted by Claymores
Cite one example in a 'normal eviction' in any form of BB sine BB7. The truth is the bookmakers have made better use of intelligence sources in recent years hence why they've never opened incorrectly on any type of 'normal eviction' since Scouser Mikey in BB7

Odds have changed drastically in many evictions from their opening price. Whether it is enough to change who is favourite depends on the gap. The gap now is easily changable.

"Intellegence sources"? (I suspect that you stand to lose a lot of money if Freddie goes). The bookmakers have just one person each managing the BB market, and he does not do it full time (he has other duties). He balances his books, sets his prices depending on the money coming in and what the competition are offering, and he has a look at the Betfair prices before taking any big bets. For the opening odds his "intellegence sources" will be the polls and forums, of which this site is major.

[bogface]

I can't understand how lisa is still in the house and marcus is going its unfair.

[Claymores]

Originally posted by 88Paul99

Odds have changed drastically in many evictions from their opening price. Whether it is enough to change who is favourite depends on the gap. The gap now is easily changable.

"Intellegence sources"? (I suspect that you stand to lose a lot of money if Freddie goes). The bookmakers have just one person each managing the BB market, and he does not do it full time (he has other duties). He balances his books, sets his prices depending on the money coming in and what the competition are offering, and he has a look at the Betfair prices before taking any big bets. For the opening odds his "intellegence sources" will be the polls and forums, of which this site is major.

I REPEAT FROM ABOVE:

The evidence I cited all relates to how they open markets.

Bookies have never opened incorrectly on any normal eviction since Scouser Mikey.

Mug punters have actually pushed the odds the wrong way on several occasions after the bookies opened the market correctly - Jade (1st Eviction in BBCH) and both Steph and Lisa in BB9 come immediately to mind.

On this occasion the movements since opening have been insignicifant and we're virtually back to the opening position.

I currently have a significant amount on Marcus going and will place up to another very large sum today depending on what's on offer.

[ElProximo]

I think what skews predictions on forums like this are what we see and don't see posted is not a good representation of likely voters.
- We have a handful of American BB fans who are really doing a sort of 'forum raid' type of joke/prank where they signed up several different screennames and are pretending to be huge Marcus fans. In their mind (which is hard to explain) they think this is taking the plss and having a laugh at Brits.
and,
- a handful of Marcus real-life friends and online friends who are also gangbanging the topics creating a disproportionate interest.
- a number of Brits just taking the plss on Marcus with fake fandom.
Okay,
but what we do not have is that representation of the massive and powerful voting demographic which is those teenage chavvish girls and middle-aged women.
They do NOT like Marcus who they quickly identified as the 'male chauvinist pig' to be punished with their misguided 'girl power'/ punish ex-bf vengeance.

The 'good news' for Marcus is that Freddy has been an annoying little shlt this last week or two.
but,
Marcus will still get bounced out with a good 65% or more to evict and then loudly booed and hissed.
And laughed at.

*Presuming Freddy doesn't try and kill a puppy tomorrow only to see it rescued by Marcus.

[BB22]

Originally posted by ElProximo
I think what skews predictions on forums like this are what we see and don't see posted is not a good representation of likely voters.

That is absolutely correct and I have made the same observation a few times during the course of this series.

We have a handful of American BB fans who are really doing a sort of 'forum raid' type of joke/prank where they signed up several different screennames and are pretending to be huge Marcus fans. In their mind (which is hard to explain) they think this is taking the plss and having a laugh at Brits.
and,
- a handful of Marcus real-life friends and online friends who are also gangbanging the topics creating a disproportionate interest.
- a number of Brits just taking the plss on Marcus with fake fandom.

That is a quite incorrect and faintly ridiculous characterisation of the situation. I have seen you peddle this particular line on a couple of occasions. You occasionally write fairly articulately on a topic but then discredit yourself with comments such as those.

what we do not have is that representation of the massive and powerful voting demographic which is those teenage chavvish girls and middle-aged women.

There is a lot of truth in that comment, although I would probably not have phrased it in such a manner myself.

[Entervoice]

Originally posted by scottyd73
I think for the 1st time this series the bookies have got the next eviction wrong. They have Marcus as the dead cert to go but i don't think that will be the case.
Freddie who i have liked in the past is too much a drama queen now and adds little to the show.
Marcus on the other hand says it like it is doesn't care who he annoys and rattles a lot of cages even when he is trying not he can't help himself.
That performance from Bea last night was quite something but Marcus stayed calm and just got his point across I think if he goes the series will be over but if Freddie left nothing much would change and i'd keep watching.
Just for the record i'm not really a huge fan of either Freddie or Marcus this has been 1st year i've not had a favorite housemate.

Freddie might go :-(

[BBmassive]

I think you are right Scotty ,after this last few days I think Freddie will be more disliked than Mucus ,At the begining of this week i voted Mucus 3 times ,since the"look at me,look at me ,Im a poor pity case"attack the other night I have voted Freddie 12 times ,This could be the one the bookies get wrong ,there is usually one wrong in a series IMO this is it

[BBmassive]

Originally posted by bogface
I can't understand how lisa is still in the house and marcus is going its unfair.

She more liked with the hm8s ,shes in the final