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CBB11 Celebrity Big Brother 11 on Channel 5, shown January 2013. Discuss here.

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Old 11-01-2013, 04:38 PM #1
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Default How to convert odds to their implied probability

I found this helpful for getting to a percentage:
Quote:
Fractional odds

Fractional odds are generally the most traditional form of expressing betting odds. They are a simple reflection of the return you will receive for a particular amount bet. So for example, the odds of 5/2 (expressed as 5 to 2) means that for every 2 units that you bet, you will receive 5 back.

To convert fractional odds into their respective probabilities, we make the following calculation.

So in our example of odds of 5/2.

Implied probability = 2 / (5 + 2)

Implied probability = 2 / 7

Implied probability = 0.286

Multiplied then by 100 to express as a implied probability percentage of 28.6%
http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds
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Old 11-01-2013, 04:41 PM #2
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Yeah I wrote a paper on betting odds and all that, and this is one of the things I talked about. Always handy to know about
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Old 11-01-2013, 04:41 PM #3
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my head hurts
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Old 11-01-2013, 06:08 PM #4
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It's really quite simple, a fractional odd is basically the numerator of the fractional representation of the perceived chances of an outcome occurring, over the numerator and denominator of that fraction added together.

In the example given in the OP, the bookies think there's a 2 over 7 (28.57%) chance of that outcome occurring.

Last edited by DigitalSid; 11-01-2013 at 07:08 PM.
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Old 11-01-2013, 07:04 PM #5
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Sam's eviction odds are currently 2/7.

So his likelihood of going is 77.8%. Pretty high!
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