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lambruscokid · 13-08-2006, 02:05 AM

Watching the betting odds can be far more accurate than the polls: http://orange.oddschecker.com/orange...her/scard/8655

They haven't taken down the last ones yet, so you can see that Imogen was 1/50 to be evicted, while Richard was 10/1 - and of course, that's how it turned out.

In all the bookmakers odds, Pete is way ahead - 2/11 compared to 9, 14, or even 20 for Aisleyne:
http://orange.oddschecker.com/orange...69x/sid/903391

Ella · 13-08-2006, 02:06 AM

Yeah we all know Pete going to win hehe

dudul · 13-08-2006, 02:17 AM

yes well theres no doubt about that.haha. as long as ash is in top 3 im ok with that

lambruscokid · 13-08-2006, 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by dudul
yes well theres no doubt about that.haha. as long as ash is in top 3 Im ok with that

Even though I'm not an Ash fan, I'm happy she's in the finals instead of a lot of the HMs that could have been. I've said it before, I'm pleased with how it's turned out now, no matter who wins.

dudul · 13-08-2006, 02:23 AM

yes i know its all good but i just dont think it is fair that nikki is aloud to win the public evicted her for a reason if u no what i meen

lambruscokid · 13-08-2006, 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by dudul
yes i know its all good but i just dont think it is fair that nikki is aloud to win the public evicted her for a reason if u no what i meen

True, but the public also voted her back in. I thought it was unfair that she was evicted in the first place, as it was only due to the vote being split across all the HMs due to Jayne.

Don't worry, though, she's not likely to win over Pete or Glyn.

RAS · 13-08-2006, 02:37 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Elz_Belz
Yeah we all know Pete going to win hehe

lol, i really don't think its that clear cut yet.

dudul · 13-08-2006, 02:49 AM

i don't either the most acurate polls i hav seen which people vote in the thousands is bbonline and they are never ever rong even in last years final poll vote soooo....

James · 13-08-2006, 03:01 AM

The bookmakers usually get it right in terms of predicting the result.

The one exception I remember was when Kenzie was odds-on to win Celebrity Big Brother 3 - right up to the final day even - and Bez ended up winning.

Also you have to remember bookmakers' odds don't necessarily reflect how likely something is to happen but reflect how much money has been laid, where.

Something has definately changed in the polls this week... this is the first week Aisleyene has been in the lead.

Farmloon · 13-08-2006, 03:01 AM

Betfair has Ash closing on Pete!

Ollie! · 13-08-2006, 07:11 AM

There's only 4 left in it: Pete, Glyn, Nikki and Aisleyne. Richards odds of 50-1 are too bad to even contemplate a top 4 finish and Jennie is virtually anonymous.

Aisleynes odds have dropped to as little as 9-1 at one bookies with an average of 14-1 has the edge in some polls, Pete has it in others. But the bookies have Pete a clear winner with Glyn a tiny fraction ahead of Nikki and Aisleyne a little bit behind.

So it looks like a Pete win, with 2nd place up for grabs between Glyn, Nikki and Aisleyne. Shocks do happen although Kenzie wasn't as far ahead of Bez as Pete is of the others this year. I really hope Aisleyne doesn't win but there's a teeny weeny chance! Maybe Glyn could win though too.

ferg_luvs_bb7 · 13-08-2006, 07:29 AM

I dont want Pete to win, hes so dull

Bells · 13-08-2006, 07:40 AM

I always saw Pete winning, nothing's changed...

kara · 13-08-2006, 08:07 AM

I think something has changed, and friday is gonna be a shock to a lot of people !

kara · 13-08-2006, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by James
The bookmakers usually get it right in terms of predicting the result.

The one exception I remember was when Kenzie was odds-on to win Celebrity Big Brother 3 - right up to the final day even - and Bez ended up winning.

Also you have to remember bookmakers' odds don't necessarily reflect how likely something is to happen but reflect how much money has been laid, where.

Something has definately changed in the polls this week... this is the first week Aisleyene has been in the lead.

James, in the thread about Poll accuracy you say in response to the question "are the polls on this forum accurate?":

Quote:

I'd say pretty much, yes.

For CBB4 the final week poll predicted Chantelle would win by a landslide. It didn't predict that Michael Barrymore would be second though - the fact that people often vote for more than one housemate in the final is a variable that the polls on this site don't really take into account.

For the BB6 final the poll correctly predicted throughout the week that it was nip-and-tuck between Anthony and Eugene. After Eugene won half the money in the penultimate night twist there was a run-off poll and Anthony was the clear leader there.

The eviction polls have been generally accurate throughout this series also. For example Imogen's eviction percentage was 62% and the poll here predicted 63.1. Mikey's eviction percentage was bang-on level with the poll here - 48.5%.

Of course (as politicians are fond of saying) the only poll that really counts is the one, the result of which, will be announced at the end.

What do you think is going on, are the bookmakers right or are the polls right?

Lucky · 13-08-2006, 08:55 AM

Either way it probably worth putting a few quid on Ash

BigBrother10:AllnewBigBro · 13-08-2006, 08:56 AM

Ash has half of the bookies shortened to the same as Nikki or even better than Nikkis.Glyn is now second fav at 7/1 Nikki kind of joint 3rd fav with Ash overall with the bookies.Nikki has drifted to 11/1 and 9/1.Ash is 15/2,16/1(should shorten),and 12/1.Pete is still about 1/6 ans slighttly drifted to 2/11.

BigBrother10:AllnewBigBro · 13-08-2006, 09:01 AM

The bookmakers usually get it right in terms of predicting the result.

The one exception I remember was when Kenzie was odds-on to win Celebrity Big Brother 3 - right up to the final day even - and Bez ended up winning.

Also you have to remember bookmakers' odds don't necessarily reflect how likely something is to happen but reflect how much money has been laid, where.

Something has definately changed in the polls this week... this is the first week Aisleyene has been in the lead. James said - but Petes odds are shorter than kenzies ,he was 10/11 and 8/11 so Pete has better odds so he has a better chance 1/6 and 2/11 way better so Pete has a better chance.

kara · 13-08-2006, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Lucky
Either way it probably worth putting a few quid on Ash

defo, i put £20 on her at 26 to 1 a few days ago

Girardo · 13-08-2006, 09:32 AM

yeah but Richard is the lowest down in the order and thats wrong.

its obviously that Jennie will finish last. u dont need to watch BBBM or BBLB or polls to tell u that! she just hasnt had enough time to accumalte popularity and people naturally are not drawn to newcomers.
ASH is a total exception. shes still be in there for like 11.5 weeks or so.

kara · 13-08-2006, 09:37 AM

odds are just probabilities, so if a bookmaker puts pete at 1 to 6 it means that they expect him to win 5 out of 6 times, so they are not discounting the chance that he won't win 1 out of 6 times. That's just a dice throw! Let's hope that God indeed does play dice!

Bigmouth · 13-08-2006, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by kara
odds are just probabilities, so if a bookmaker puts pete at 1 to 6 it means that they expect him to win 5 out of 6 times, so they are not discounting the chance that he won't win 1 out of 6 times. That's just a dice throw! Let's hope that God indeed does play dice!

Just like-
1-England hot favs for the world cup (lost)
2-ATHENS 2004 will never happen (best ever olympics)
3-Wembley will be ready for 2005 FA cup (still waiting)
4-The TITANIC will never sink(boy did they fcuk that one)