[Achilles]

How many of those 1.5 million people are voting for their winner?

16,000 people have voted on the Tellymix poll. That is the largest sample figure on the internet. Polls show what the thinking is of those who voted on the poll. It doesn't take into consideration the opinions of all those who have not voted on the poll. Sometimes polls get it right, sometimes they don't.

16,000 is 1% of 1,500,000. So what % of the 1.5 million people will be voting? I don't think it is 1%. You have to look at the silent voter. The voter who does not vote on polls or comment on social media. How many silent voters are there and who will they be voting for?

Suppose 10% of the viewers are voting. That is 150,000 people. 10% of those people are making their opinion known on the internet. 90% are not. That is a very significant "unknown". That 10% refers to the largest sample, the Tellymix poll. The % is much lower when it comes to other polls and social media.

The FB popularity contest between the 6 finalists has 2.6k, 2.1k, 1.7k, 1.6k, 0.8k and 0.4k. Roughly. 9,200 total likes. The likes are all still increasing but very slowly. Assume they reach 1% of the viewers, it's still 1%.

There was a RT your fave and the numbers for that were even lower. Highest was ~750, not even 1k.


What % of the viewers are deciding the outcome of the final? 1%? 10% More?


Odds - Sometimes odds are right, sometimes they are very wrong. Ash was odds on to be evicted, he wasn't evicted. Winston had long odds, he was evicted. If people place bets, odds go down. What is the reason for the people placing bets? They are betting. What are they basing their bet on? If everything is above board, they are basing it on opinions of others. Polls, social media, forums etc. Sometimes all this can be right and sometimes wrong. I think the best way of looking at odds is looking at the % of money placed in total and treat it like a poll. In previous evictions, the actual odds did not always reflect the % of bets placed. Pav has been a great example of this. Recently Winston was a prime example. He had long odds. He started off as 5th of 5 for % of bets placed and by the start of the eviction he was 2nd of 5. Most popular bets at this moment is Ashleigh 26%, Christopher 15%, Mark 13%, Winston 13%, 12% Chris, Others (including Helen, Ash, Pav and the 11 other housemates) 21%. Ashleigh and Christopher % has gone up by ~1% each. Others has gone up ~2%. It makes sense that the most popular bets show Ashleigh, Christopher, Chris because that is what most polls have been saying for past few weeks. More bets have been placed on Ash and Helen recently as a reaction to the same social media. Chris has stayed around the same %, this makes sense because social media isn't really chatting about him at this moment.


If more than 1% of the viewers are voting, you have to think, "who are they voting"?

Long post enough now.

[Marsh.]

Originally Posted by Achilles

Long post enough now.

[kefln]

Great post.

In my opinion an average silent voter, unlike a lot of people online, aren't fanatical. They either pick their favourites early on, or allow the editing to carrying them along.

Shows like the x-factor confuse me. The judges keep talking like the audience make their minds up by each performance, but most people aren't like that. If we invest in someone, no matter what the reason, we'll continue to back them. But I understand that creating fear increases the vote count.

As shows like BB get closer to the end, the audience are more likely to commit. Mainly over fear that their favourite will loose. Does it matter who gets the boot first? The audience has little invested in the cast at that point.

This is where C5 BB has really come to its own. They really attack a certain story. It gets the fans railed up and forces them to vote more.

The other side of it is that there are fans that will only vote for certain people. For example those that support Christopher might have only voted on Fridays that he was up. The same with Ash, the same with Ashleigh, the same with Chris. So while there are many fans who vote every week, there are a percentage that only vote for the one person. Their core fans, so to speak.

The bookies are are deceptive as well. If one HM is looking to be a clear winner, they might start shortening odds on another, increasing interest. More bets come in, because it looks like the bookies know something. And thats true, they do. They know that people like to gamble. The more that they can spread the load, the more money they make. If 1,000 people had voted on HM #1, then getting 1,000 people to vote on HM #2 is money in the bank.

The final of BB is a lottery. It all depends on which fans have been whipped up enough to spend the most. And the show will only continue to be made if the silent majority continue to vote.

[KADENACY]

Bookmakers Are Deceptive.

Originally Posted by Kefln

Great post.


The bookies are are deceptive as well. If one HM is looking to be a clear winner, they might start shortening odds on another, increasing interest. More bets come in, because it looks like the bookies know something. And thats true, they do. They know that people like to gamble. The more that they can spread the load, the more money they make. If 1,000 people had voted on HM #1, then getting 1,000 people to vote on HM #2 is money in the bank.

The final of BB is a lottery. It all depends on which fans have been whipped up enough to spend the most. And the show will only continue to be made if the silent majority continue to vote.

KADENACY replies:-

I'm always studying Big Brother UK Polls to see how popular or un-popular
housemates are,which housemate is going to be evicted,which housemate
is going to win,etc.

I also take a passing interest in what the Bookmakers say about Big Brother
UK housemates,and there is sometimes a disparity with what the polls say
and what the bookmakers say about a given housemate or housemates.

For example,according to most if not all of the polls,Ashleigh is the favourite
to win Big Brother UK 15 2014,but from what I've seen the bookmakers are trying
to con the public in to thinking that Helen is going to win - purely because
they can make more money by saying that.

I've seen this deceptive carry-on by bookmakers time and time again in
regard to Big Brother UK and Celebrity Big Brother UK - Housemate A
is the polls favourite to win,Housemate B is the bookmakers favourite to
win,BUT Housemate A usually wins!

Granted,the polls get it wrong sometimes - hence the shock eviction of
Winston Showan last Friday (I was shocked!),but I think its fair say that
the polls are more accurate than the bookmakers

[daniel-lewis-1985]

No theres a lot more "silent voters" how else do you explain the bores winning every year?

They are not fanatical like us and don't vote for the most entertaining but the person they think is "nice" and enjoy voting for the nice quiet one.

I think Christopher is going to pull it out of the bag.

[Pete.]

Originally Posted by daniel-lewis-1985

No theres a lot more "silent voters" how else do you explain the bores winning every year?
.

Very true