[arista]

The Last One For Kizzy and Joey

[Toy Soldier]

The more I think about it, the more full of holes this whole budget starts to seem. For one, the wage increase, being inaccurately called "Living Wage". That's not what it is. It's a higher minimum wage that has nothing to do with Living Wage calculations - it can't possibly - because there's no way to know what the actual "living wage" in 2020 will be.

Then there's the fact that the Tax Credit tapering is now set at a level where the "increased" wage won't make anyone better off. The idea presumably being that people are in exactly the same or slightly worse situation than now, but with a chunk of the financial burden offloaded to companies and off of the government,

EXCEPT they are, for some barmy reason, assuming that all companies run huge profits or pay huge amounts at the top and can afford the wage increases... when that simply isn't the case, and this will almost certainly result in shop closures / staff reductions / people's hours being cut / entire companies employing thousands folding for good. Making the staff from those places 100% unemployed, and thereby increasing the amount of cash they have to claim in benefits tenfold over what they were getting in Working Tax Credits, ultimately saving the government absolutely nothing at all.


Massive gaping hole number two:

This increased wage is for people aged 25 and over. 18 - 24 year olds will still get a lower minimum wage. The effect of this is really obvious; it's going to be really ****ing difficult for any unemployed person aged 25 or over to get work, and companies will probably start finding ways to push people out as soon as they hit 25 in order to hire new, young, cheap staff. Let's say you run a company in 2020 and you're hiring. Not particularly skilled work, nothing that requires any or much experience, who are you going to hire? A 20 year old who you have to pay whatever the minimum is then (maybe £7.50 or so?) or a 26 year old who you have to pay £9.35? It's a no-brainer.

It's not even just the minimum increase that's going to be an issue here of course, pretty much all ground-level wages have to increase proportionately. For example, let's say it's a shop where a shelf stacker / till operative earns min wage currently, so £6.50 an hour. Now let's say their direct supervisor is currently on £9 an hour. What happens when all of the shelf stackers go up to £9 an hour? They can't keep their supervisor on £9 an hour too, they'd have to increase them to say at least £11 an hour, otherwise there's no incentive to do that job with the increased responsibility. And so on, and so forth going up the chain. Most companies - even the larger ones - simply can't afford these increases across their entire staff. Think about it. Let's say a UK-wide company employs 20,000 people who all work (on average) 25 hours a week, so 500,000 man hours per week. Increase all of their wages by £2 an hour as described above and the cumulative cost is an extra £1 million in wages every single week, in other words, £52 million per year. And a UK-wide company staffed by 20000 people isn't even particularly huge. The chances of them having an excess £52 million in profit are slim to say the least.

It doesn't make sense. The numbers don't add up. Apply those figures to ASDA who employ 175,000 people - or roughly 225,000,000 man hours per year using the average above (it may well be more). A £2 increase across the board adds up to over £450 million per year.


To put it more simply: Either the wage increase isn't going to happen, or there is going to be an unemployment / underemployment surge that will simply end up adding more to the benefits bill.

I genuinely think it's the former. I think it's bull****. I don't think the supposed living wage will materialise - it's simply being used as an illusion to soften the blow of the huge tax credits cut. By 2020 people will have gotten used to their reduced standard of living and so will complain less when the wages are still hovering between £7 and £8 an hour.

[MTVN]

The treasury estimates that the impact on jobs will be quite negligible and be far outweighed by the number of new ones that will be created in the coming years as the economy grows and the Tories pursue other business friendly policies like the cut in corporation tax. It's a difficult balance he's trying to achieve by implementing this 'living wage' (I agree that terminology is a bit flawed) while also trying to boost further their pro-business credentials. I don't imagine large firms will have too big a problem with it but small companies will. It is worth remembering though that everyone said the minimum wage would be too hard to implement and increase unemployment (the Tories themselves were saying that actually) and that never really came about in the end.

[the truth]

Originally Posted by MTVN

The treasury estimates that the impact on jobs will be quite negligible and be far outweighed by the number of new ones that will be created in the coming years as the economy grows and the Tories pursue other business friendly policies like the cut in corporation tax. It's a difficult balance he's trying to achieve by implementing this 'living wage' (I agree that terminology is a bit flawed) while also trying to boost further their pro-business credentials. I don't imagine large firms will have too big a problem with it but small companies will. It is worth remembering though that everyone said the minimum wage would be too hard to implement and increase unemployment (the Tories themselves were saying that actually) and that never really came about in the end.

£9 an hour is simply unaffordable for manual jobs for small businesses in the poorest parts...take a small pub you need 2 staff on during the days, that's £18 an hour x 12 hours £216 a day which is £1512 a week in wages alone for a small pub? impossible in poor areas

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by the truth

£9 an hour is simply unaffordable for manual jobs for small businesses in the poorest parts...take a small pub you need 2 staff on during the days, that's £18 an hour x 12 hours £216 a day which is £1512 a week in wages alone for a small pub? impossible in poor areas

If you run a pub you work in the pub through the day and have staff for eves/weekends surely?

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by MTVN

The treasury estimates that the impact on jobs will be quite negligible and be far outweighed by the number of new ones that will be created in the coming years as the economy grows and the Tories pursue other business friendly policies like the cut in corporation tax. It's a difficult balance he's trying to achieve by implementing this 'living wage' (I agree that terminology is a bit flawed) while also trying to boost further their pro-business credentials. I don't imagine large firms will have too big a problem with it but small companies will. It is worth remembering though that everyone said the minimum wage would be too hard to implement and increase unemployment (the Tories themselves were saying that actually) and that never really came about in the end.

The company I work for now has a policy of closing any branch that fails to break even. They don't need to make much profit so long as the profits they do make are enough to justify that branch being open.

This increase will, 100%, render several branches that I know of "unprofitable" and at risk. Staffing levels are already minimal, the wage increase will put them into the red. I know this for a fact. I know what their profit margins and current staffing costs are. People will lose their jobs. Will new jobs be created? Maybe, maybe not. If they're of the quality of the "new jobs" created in the last few years then it's just more smile and mirrors.

All independent assessments of the budget I've seen conclude the obvious truth: this budget hits low wage working families hardest. Not just a little, but devastatingly. They've tried to cover this up by pretending that there's some huge hike for low wage workers but it's a deliberate and cynical illusion.

[JoshBB]

I can't believe the BBC called him Red George tbh, lmao

[Vicky.]

The wage increase will just end up creating more 'apprenticeship' positions in unskilled jobs tbh. Its already used as a way to get cheap labour

[Toy Soldier]

One thing that is hilarious though. There are likely millions of people who are on tax credits and voted Tory. They've voted themselves out of £1000 or more per year. Well done folks. Great thinking.

[Vicky.]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

One thing that is hilarious though. There are likely millions of people who are on tax credits and voted Tory. They've voted themselves out of £1000 or more per year. Well done folks. Great thinking.

Because they believed the 'scroungers' rhetoric that was bleated everywhere. Was obvious they would have to come for the workers next, nothing else they can cut from the poorest

Workers who earn a low wage are the new 'scroungers'.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Vicky.

Because they believed the 'scroungers' rhetoric that was bleated everywhere. Was obvious they would have to come for the workers next, nothing else they can cut from the poorest

Workers who earn a low wage are the new 'scroungers'.

Exactly. The high-up Tory mindset is, simply, that anyone who they do not consider to be "their equal" (that is upper middle class professionals and above) are simply fuel required to power their country by working from birth til death at a sustenance income and are not deserving of any real quality of life beyond that.

They're constantly trying to hide the fact but when they get their way, it becomes quite obvious.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

One thing that is hilarious though. There are likely millions of people who are on tax credits and voted Tory. They've voted themselves out of £1000 or more per year. Well done folks. Great thinking.

They can never say they weren't warned however.
You are right in your other post too,this is being stated as a budget that will take a fair amount from people who are at the lower end of the scale.

Instead of listening to attacks on the opposition parties in the election, and who'd do a deal with who, the voters would have been better occupied demanding to know from the Conservatives just exactly what and where they were going to hit.

Already the holes are being picked up as to this budget,only one day after it too.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

They can never say they weren't warned however.
You are right in your other post too,this is being stated as a budget that will take a fair amount from people who are at the lower end of the scale.

Instead of listening to attacks on the opposition parties in the election, and who'd do a deal with who, the voters would have been better occupied demanding to know from the Conservatives just exactly what and where they were going to hit.

Already the holes are being picked up as to this budget,only one day after it too.

It was an awful election campaign on all fronts... the Conservatives didn't win on their popularity, they won by more effectively playing the villification game. Their entire campaign was based on making Labour unpopular instead of making themselves popular, and thus, 90% of their campaign was spent talking about Labour. And it worked.

Though I'm not going to try to pretend it was just the Tories, it was like that on all fronts. A hell of a lot of "Here are the bad things the others will do! Definitely don't vote for them!!" and very, very little "Here are the positive things we will do, vote for us."

Not surprising really. Hard for parties to focus on the positives when, it seems, there straight up just aren't any.

[the truth]

Originally Posted by toy soldier

it was an awful election campaign on all fronts... The conservatives didn't win on their popularity, they won by more effectively playing the villification game. Their entire campaign was based on making labour unpopular instead of making themselves popular, and thus, 90% of their campaign was spent talking about labour. And it worked.

Though i'm not going to try to pretend it was just the tories, it was like that on all fronts. A hell of a lot of "here are the bad things the others will do! Definitely don't vote for them!!" and very, very little "here are the positive things we will do, vote for us."

not surprising really. Hard for parties to focus on the positives when, it seems, there straight up just aren't any.

it is time labour rebuild now. I was always labour until new labour 2001....then i could see that blair was the devil himself....and never voted labour since

but i would consider even working for labour if they reform and get a proper leader...corbyn is the only candidate id back as the others voted in favour of the iraq war. A vote that should never ever ever ever ever ever ever be forgiven or forgotten

corbyn talks a fair bit of sense. Though hes more pro european than me, he does at least criticize the eu and admits it needs huge changes

[the truth]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

If you run a pub you work in the pub through the day and have staff for eves/weekends surely?

YOU ALWAYS NEED 2 people or more.....cleaning the pipes, serving booze, cleaning, serving food, washing glasses, cleaning up glass, pool teams, darts teams, constantly dealing with someone from the brewery, the amusement rentals the juke boxes, pool table, sky, bt, the council , he accountants, electricians, plumbers, the police, troublesome punters, etc then you have to visit the cash and carry umpteen times the list goes on and on

most pubs are closing because the supermarkets are so cheap and the red tape is worse than ever.....increasing the basic wages of staff by 25% will kill off the pubs and many 1000s more small businesses...the money simply isn't there.....the gap used to be bridged by working tax credits to top up wages, now that's gone too so this is a double blow to small businesses....clearly the last few governments don't give a damn about small busiensses...theyre enslaving us ever more to giant monopolies....like the gas companies who overcharged us by over £1 billion last year. ...labour party should fight to re nationalise the utilities (and the trains too imo)

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by the truth

YOU ALWAYS NEED 2 people or more.....cleaning the pipes, serving booze, cleaning, serving food, washing glasses, cleaning up glass, pool teams, darts teams, constantly dealing with someone from the brewery, the amusement rentals the juke boxes, pool table, sky, bt, the council , he accountants, electricians, plumbers, the police, troublesome punters, etc then you have to visit the cash and carry umpteen times the list goes on and on

most pubs are closing because the supermarkets are so cheap and the red tape is worse than ever.....increasing the basic wages of staff by 25% will kill off the pubs and many 1000s more small businesses...the money simply isn't there.....the gap used to be bridged by working tax credits to top up wages, now that's gone too so this is a double blow to small businesses....clearly the last few governments don't give a damn about small busiensses...theyre enslaving us ever more to giant monopolies....like the gas companies who overcharged us by over £1 billion last year. ...labour party should fight to re nationalise the utilities (and the trains too imo)

Here I 100% agree with you to that last part.
I really believe it is time some party looked at re-nationalising the gas, electricity,water and railways again.

[the truth]

Lbour needs aa new leader a million miles away from the b list actors blair and miliband

[empire]

labour overspent on welfare, so badly, that it has a generation that is too dependent on it, eu migrants should be made to pay amount to the state before they are entitled to welfare, because the tory's need to give something back to the public, intruth we can't go back to the days of overspending, because we have wasted money on foreign aid, bailing out countries in the eu, and giving the eu millions a week, labour lost the plot on welfare spending, with 200 billion in two years, and has any young guy or girl, found a job to this day, no, the welfare reforms under labour and the tories, make no sense, are country spends more on benefits than anywhere else in the eu, you have to earn your keep, because if you don't, we will end up being another greece,

[arista]

[Osborne's Planning Shake-Up To Boost New Homes
Property developers will automatically be given permission to build on suitable brownfield
sites under new Government reforms.]



http://news.sky.com/story/1516421/os...oost-new-homes


Yes Get the Building on the way
and Eco Homes

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by the truth

YOU ALWAYS NEED 2 people or more.....cleaning the pipes, serving booze, cleaning, serving food, washing glasses, cleaning up glass, pool teams, darts teams, constantly dealing with someone from the brewery, the amusement rentals the juke boxes, pool table, sky, bt, the council , he accountants, electricians, plumbers, the police, troublesome punters, etc then you have to visit the cash and carry umpteen times the list goes on and on

most pubs are closing because the supermarkets are so cheap and the red tape is worse than ever.....increasing the basic wages of staff by 25% will kill off the pubs and many 1000s more small businesses...the money simply isn't there.....the gap used to be bridged by working tax credits to top up wages, now that's gone too so this is a double blow to small businesses....clearly the last few governments don't give a damn about small busiensses...theyre enslaving us ever more to giant monopolies....like the gas companies who overcharged us by over £1 billion last year. ...labour party should fight to re nationalise the utilities (and the trains too imo)

No most pubs are closing because nobody has any money to spend in the pub. That and the breweries are selling the properties to developers to be converted into flats and shops.

[Vicky.]

My neighbour is panicking now as apparently the bbc calculator shows she will be 40 quid a week worse off, and now she would actually be better off financially if she did not work. This really isnt right :S

[Vicky.]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

No most pubs are closing because nobody has any money to spend in the pub. That and the breweries are selling the properties to developers to be converted into flats and shops.

Smoking ban killed pubs, from my experience. My dad in law had to sell his months afterwards as custom went down like a brick. His steady customers were old men who sat nursing a pint with a cigar/rollie for hours on end...people who weren't really in a fit state to keep getting up and going outside.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Vicky.

Smoking ban killed pubs, from my experience. My dad in law had to sell his months afterwards as custom went down like a brick. His steady customers were old men who sat nursing a pint with a cigar/rollie for hours on end...people who weren't really in a fit state to keep getting up and going outside.

Good point that had a massive impact, can't imagine the bar flies at my local vaping

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Vicky.

My neighbour is panicking now as apparently the bbc calculator shows she will be 40 quid a week worse off, and now she would actually be better off financially if she did not work. This really isnt right :S

Like I was ranting about earlier, it seems that any working person who currently gets tax credits will be between £100 and £200 a month worse off. That includes single mums, young families, everyone. Not only that, but the wage rises that partially (but nowhere near fully) make up for it don't fully come into effect until 4 years later. The cuts to tax credits are immediate in 2016 at which point the wages only (supposedly) go up to £7.20.

Your neighbour's calculation is probably accurate and it will be the same story for millions of households across the UK.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by MTVN

I don't have an issue with the maintenance grant going really. Poorer students are going to be having more money from these loans helping with their cost of living which the grants were often inadequate for. Yes you'll have to pay it back but then you're going to be a graduate, you will earn more on average to make it worth it and I do actually agree with Osborne that it's fairer for the graduate to pay back that loan rather than the taxpayer who will often be earning less than them.

Ah it's ok you saying that now your uni education is over, it's those who either had free or very low debt that begrudge anyone else been given a hand up it seems which is quite sad.
Is it another example of 'I'm alright jack?' I have my degree and my decent job so screw you...
Anyone from a low income family can expect to leave uni with a degree and a debt of £51,000 now.