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Old 26-03-2020, 09:34 PM   #1
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Default Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure

I know a lot of people aren't interested in or don't want to hear about the grey areas on this so I thought I'd keep this out of the "main" thread.

Article from the Washington Post. Covers some of the stuff I've been talking about and IMO something that is going to need serious consideration within the next month or two. Well worth a read and ponder.

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Covid-19 will go away eventually in one of two ways. Either we will develop a vaccine to prevent it, or the virus will burn itself out as the spread of infection comes to confer a form of herd immunity on the population. Neither of those possibilities will occur quickly.

It is time to face reality. We urgently need a unified national strategy, one informed by the best science about stopping diseases like covid-19 and from virus control efforts in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as realistic projections of the human and economic toll of any option we pursue. Our way of life cannot survive an indefinite series of short-term action plans.

We have to ask what we hope to accomplish with limited self-quarantines and shelter-in-place directives. Clearly, as one objective, we seek to “flatten the curve” in an effort to keep our already overburdened health-care system from being overrun. The ability of our hospitals to continue providing care to a flood of covid-19 patients, while still treating the other patients they normally have, all the while protecting health-care professionals, will be a major factor in reducing bad outcomes for victims of the*coronavirus*and other illnesses as well.

But how do we actually accomplish this? What happens after a several-week moratorium on normal activity? Does the president, governor or mayor declare another? While California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has made a courageous move by locking down his state, how long can 40 million California residents be kept at home? And will it be long enough to make a significant difference?

China and Italy have imposed near-draconian lockdowns in an effort to halt the spread of covid-19. But how and when will these two “test” nations return to normal life? And when they do, will there be a major second wave of cases? If that happens, should they simply “rinse and repeat”?


As a country, with momentum building for*a possible national shutdown directive, we are on the verge of ringing a giant bell that we don’t know how to un-ring.

Yet we don’t, for example, have good data on the real impact of closing public and private K-12 schools on the spread of covid-19. Hong Kong and Singapore, advanced city-states that experienced the outbreak early, both attempted to respond quickly and efficiently. Hong Kong closed schools; Singapore did not, and there was hardly any difference in the rate of transmission. The second-order effect of shutting schools is that hardest hit will be those least able to afford to miss work to care for homebound children. And what of our health professionals with children? Add to that firefighters, police officers, utility workers, delivery drivers and other essential personnel, and the magnitude of the problem is clear.

The Imperial College of London*has produced a sobering study on possible covid-19 strategies. Three scenarios compare the outcomes of flattening the curve (mitigation), suppression (long-term quarantine) and letting the virus take its natural course (doing nothing), modeling the levels of disease and death for each course. The stark takeaway: Significantly reducing the number of serious illnesses and deaths would require a near-total lockdown until an effective vaccine is available, probably at least 18 months from now.

Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold. We can’t have everyone stay home and still produce and distribute the basics needed to sustain life and fight the disease.

Trump may think he can sugarcoat coronavirus, but media critic Erik Wemple says it is time for the government to speak with one clear voice about public health.

We are in uncharted territory. But the best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.

Very soon, we may have to acknowledge that attempting to stretch out cases in the hopes of keeping the curve reasonably flat is unworkable. Then, as we wait for either our scientific or natural redeemer to come, we can start trying to put things as back to normal as we can — doing our best to protect those at high risk, but acknowledging that people will get sick, some will die, and our health-care system is going to be overrun to a great extent no matter what we do.

There is no black-or-white option here. We will have to figure out what shade of gray we can accept and apply. We will get through this, but hard and painful choices are inescapable.

----------

Michael T. Osterholm is regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Mark Olshaker is a writer and documentary filmmaker.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...wn-is-no-cure/
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Old 26-03-2020, 09:45 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toy Soldier View Post
I know a lot of people aren't interested in or don't want to hear about the grey areas on this so I thought I'd keep this out of the "main" thread.

Article from the Washington Post. Covers some of the stuff I've been talking about and IMO something that is going to need serious consideration within the next month or two. Well worth a read and ponder.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...wn-is-no-cure/
Interesting post,I dont really think a full lockdown will help ,I think we are better doing it as we are.
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Old 26-03-2020, 09:48 PM   #3
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To briefly give my own two cents, I do absolutely think that a short-term lockdown to give preparation time, bolster the NHS and mitigate the potential initial surge is absolutely the right move.

I think that sensible social distancing policies, hygiene policies and banning of large gatherings etc. should be in place indefinitely - until either a vaccine is developed or wide scale testing shows high levels of immunity in the population. Also sensible to carry on Web conferencing / Web business in place of international travel for as long as possible. Considering climate implications I'd say do it forever?

But

I think a stricter full lockdown beyond that, lasting more than 3 or 4 months, is dangerous, reckless and will come at an untold cost that we can't really comprehend yet. I'm genuinely worried that we're headed for a much scarier cliff than Covid in the next few years.
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Old 26-03-2020, 09:49 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kazanne View Post
Interesting post,I dont really think a full lockdown will help ,I think we are better doing it as we are.
This is near enough full lockdown, if we carry on as we are now for 6+ months the economy will collapse. That doesn't mean recession... That means total breakdown of essential services and supplies.
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Old 26-03-2020, 10:00 PM   #5
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yeah, i think we need this lock down now in order to get the readiness levels up and the equipment in place. Then get anti body testing in full roll out so that we know who is then safe to work because they already had it ... My feeling is that is a lot, and it will allow us to collect much much more information on the spread.

One issue that I heard recently (which is obvious, but it hadnt occurred to me) is that each patient requiring a ventilator needs it for a few days, but those that arent going to recover are basically artificially kept alive ... so not only are they taking ventilators for an extended period from people who could possibly recover if they got put on one, someone in many cases has to take the decision to take them off the ventilator .... it's a horrible situation
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Old 26-03-2020, 10:07 PM   #6
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Getting a quick and reliable test will be the first real breakthrough against the virus second a cure or better way of treating the virus.

Personally I think we should be making high grade full face masks so people could could function as normally as possible with each other while having greater protection.
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Old 26-03-2020, 10:27 PM   #7
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I agree that antibody testing is a key piece of the puzzle, we won't have any real idea of the situation until that's happening on a large scale. Apparently it does exist already though, still undergoing testing for accuracy before being rolled out.
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Old 27-03-2020, 05:26 AM   #8
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I know, it's only temporary. If you stop the economy for too long, it might never recover.
Antibodies testing is the key to stop the virus.
How many of us may have had this and not know it?
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Old 27-03-2020, 05:45 AM   #9
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But TS
the Deputy Medical Lady
says it can be a 6months Lockdown
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Old 27-03-2020, 05:46 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanessa View Post
I know, it's only temporary. If you stop the economy for too long, it might never recover.
Antibodies testing is the key to stop the virus.
How many of us may have had this and not know it?

Thats a Guess.
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Old 27-03-2020, 05:48 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toy Soldier View Post
This is near enough full lockdown, if we carry on as we are now for 6+ months the economy will collapse. That doesn't mean recession... That means total breakdown of essential services and supplies.
Yes
It will change everything.

But since that Deputy Medical Lady said it can be 6Months
I am ready for that.
Unlike you TS.
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Old 27-03-2020, 08:26 AM   #12
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completely agree TS, a lockdown isn't a cure, just a means to slow down the spread and a last case scenario option when ignorant bigots disobey the rules and go on Streets without masks, gloves, when bigots cough at other people to make them feel even more uncomfortable (for the lolz and the likes)

then a lockdown is a better option to restrict access to the Streets to most people, and only allow people to leave their home for supermarket, doctor


in south-africa even walking the dog is now forbidden in these 3 weeks
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Old 27-03-2020, 09:14 AM   #13
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Nicky Lockdown
saves lives


Thats all that matters
not TS and his problems/hang ups
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Old 27-03-2020, 09:18 AM   #14
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Lockdown is necessary unfortunately because the thickos couldn’t stay at home if the shops etc were open
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Old 27-03-2020, 10:14 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arista View Post
Nicky Lockdown
saves lives


Thats all that matters
not TS and his problems/hang ups
Lives are going to be lost if lockdown goes on for too long. Thankfully arista, you being too single-minded to understand that is NOT my problem.
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Old 27-03-2020, 10:25 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toy Soldier View Post
Lives are going to be lost if lockdown goes on for too long. Thankfully arista, you being too single-minded to understand that is NOT my problem.
if only people could obey simple procedures by themselves, rather than with military force in full lockdown

closing down bars, restaurants, cancelling public events is already helping
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Old 27-03-2020, 10:52 AM   #17
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Quote:
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Lives are going to be lost if lockdown goes on for too long. Thankfully arista, you being too single-minded to understand that is NOT my problem.

No I understand
Its harder with a Family


Lockdown is going to be long

Suck It UP
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Old 27-03-2020, 11:01 AM   #18
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Quote:
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No I understand

Its harder with a Family





Lockdown is going to be long



Suck It UP
Lockdown has made little to no difference to my life at all. I already work from home.

Patients of redeployed Community nurses are already dying. I understand that YOU are afraid because you're in an at risk category, but you're not going to flippantly dismiss my concerns for the wider population arista.

Economic collapse will cost lives. It might not cost YOUR life - your life might be more at risk from Covid than from economic collapse - so you might be willing to pretend that isn't true... But the fact remains, and it's a tightrope that the government is going to have to walk at some point. Britain will "reopen for business" before there is a vaccine and you should be aware of that.
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