[arista]

This is sad news


https://news.sky.com/story/conservat...ed-53-12428938


[James Brokenshire was first diagnosed with lung cancer in 2018
The MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup
announced in August that his lung cancer
had "progressed" and that he would
be beginning a new line of treatment.
Mr Brokenshire stepped down as security minister
in July this year after admitting his cancer
recovery was taking "longer than expected".

He had his right lung removed as part
of his treatment in February this year
and had said stepping down from his
Home Office ministerial role would allow
him to focus on his health.]

[joeysteele]

This is very sad.
A strong character who tried his best over his political career.
R.I.P.

[arista]

[arista]

[His death means another by-election,
in his Blue Wall seat
of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat.
He had a majority of 18,952.
Labour is the nearest threat with
the Libs non-existent,
but it will still be seen as a key test
and referendum on Johnsonism.]


Tom Newton Dunn.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by arista

[His death means another by-election,
in his Blue Wall seat
of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat.
He had a majority of 18,952.
Labour is the nearest threat with
the Libs non-existent,
but it will still be seen as a key test
and referendum on Johnsonism.]


Tom Newton Dunn.

Edward Heath's former seat.

No way there's any danger in my view of losing this one.

[arista]

A Small party is having a go.



[On the 28 October 2021,
Labour announced that its candidate as Daniel Francis,
a councillor for Belvedere,
who was the Leader of the Labour Group on Bexley Council from 2017–2021.
The other shortlisted Labour candidates were Marcus Storm,
Luke Murphy, and Rachel Taggart-Ryan.[8]

On 29 October, Reform UK announced that
their leader Richard Tice would stand
in the by-election for the party.]




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future...up_by-election

[bitontheslide]

"and we off" shows the wonderful educational standard of that party

[arista]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

"and we off" shows the wonderful educational standard of that party

They need to Win
One Seat.

[arista]

The 11 Fighting for it are

Louie French - Conservative Party
Daniel Francis - Labour Party
Simon Reynolds - Liberal Democrats
Richard Tice - Reform UK
David Kurten - Heritage Party
John Poynton - UKIP
Carol Valinejad - Independent
Elaine Cheesman - English Democrats
Jonathon Rooks - Green Party
Richard Hewson - Rejoin EU
Mad Mike Young - M. Raving Loony Party

[arista]

Correction it takes place


Thursday, 2 December 2021

[joeysteele]

No way will the Cons have any trouble here.
The majority may slip but a non event as to any likely surprise I'd say.

[arista]

Live Results

SkyNewsHD

[arista]

Low TurnOut. 33 %

Conservative 11,189
Labour 6,711
ReformUK Richard Tice 1,432
Greens 830
LibDem 647

Conservatives has Won.
Louie French MP


https://news.sky.com/story/old-bexle...shire-12485022

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59505204

[arista]

[Alf]

Very poor turnout.

[arista]

Originally Posted by Alf

Very poor turnout.

Its not Summer time.

[bitontheslide]

a 33% turnout isn't a mandate in my humble opinion.

[arista]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

a 33% turnout isn't a mandate in my humble opinion.

Its all Legal
And in a Cold Month
this is expected.

[joeysteele]

By elections in the main are usually on low turnouts.
I expected this result and nothing can be read into it really.
It is a former Prime Minister's and extremely long serving MPs seat.
Re Edward Heath.

You can only look at the votes which have been cast, the Con took just over 50% of the votes cast.

I doubt this will EVER be a seat Labour would ever win.
It hasn't come close to before.

James Brokenshire was a really good and valued constituency MP.
It's sad how his time as an MP was ended from his health.

The only thing on this turnout, which doesn't mean anything but it is a simple fact.
Is in all elections the Labour party in Old Bexley have only twice before crossed over into taking on or over 30% of votes cast.
That was in 1997, 2001 and now too in this by election.

Apart from before it became a new seat.
Labour were stronger when it was just Bexley.
Apart from 1983.

So a few crumbs of comfort that perhaps Labour will or can be looked at again.

I always felt this to be a non event as a by election.
I can't ever see Edward Heath's old seat being anything other than a Con one.

So well done to the winner.
I will add that if this had been a Labour seat with a previous 19,000 majority slashed to under 5,000.
It would be being screamed Labour is done, finished.
While it's not a magic moment for Labour, I will add well done to the candidate there for as I say, taking the vote share up around 7% to marginally over 30%.