[thesheriff443]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

One member has literally said exactly that, several more have implied it.

Watching that bloke on YouTube ticking bits of paper doesn’t constitute “having the data” either by the way but it’s ok, I get that people are tired and scared and want to believe the hypothesis that this is a much milder strain and will herald the end of the worse strains.

Which is certainly very possible but we’re nowhere even vaguely close to being able to declare that with any degree of triumph.

In truth none of us have “the data” because it’s too early to have “the data”. You criticise me for being honest about not having that data… whilst lapping up any (too early) interpretation of the data that is available that slants towards the positive.

It’s a position of fear. I get why people do it but it has zero practical utility, and jumping the gun with half-baked beliefs comes with several potential risks.

It’s deaths that give the best information and the fact they are so low is a clear indication the vaccine works.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by All The Jingle Ladies

We are 2 years into a pandemic and you are trying to play that card?

Are you for real
But you scorn real life data

Let's see your workings

So
far all we have seen is

I know someone who works in the NHS

I know and work with hundreds of people who work in the NHS.

Why are you again asking me to “do the working” on numbers that I’ve quite clearly said we don’t have? We don’t have enough data to draw conclusions. It’s that simple.

[Mystic Mock]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

I know and work with hundreds of people who work in the NHS.

Why are you again asking me to “do the working” on numbers that I’ve quite clearly said we don’t have? We don’t have enough data to draw conclusions. It’s that simple.

So it's more than one person then.

My bad.

A serious question that I have TS, why are the Media and some Scientists coming forward trying to say that this variant is "milder" if there isn't even any real data to suggest that's the case? Honestly not meaning to be confrontational it's just a genuine question.

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

One member has literally said exactly that, several more have implied it.

Watching that bloke on YouTube ticking bits of paper doesn’t constitute “having the data” either by the way but it’s ok, I get that people are tired and scared and want to believe the hypothesis that this is a much milder strain and will herald the end of the worse strains.

Which is certainly very possible but we’re nowhere even vaguely close to being able to declare that with any degree of triumph.

In truth none of us have “the data” because it’s too early to have “the data”. You criticise me for being honest about not having that data… whilst lapping up any (too early) interpretation of the data that is available that slants towards the positive.

It’s a position of fear. I get why people do it but it has zero practical utility, and jumping the gun with half-baked beliefs comes with several potential risks.

I agree completely !!


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[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Mystic Mock

So it's more than one person then.

My bad.

A serious question that I have TS, why are the Media and some Scientists coming forward trying to say that this variant is "milder" if there isn't even any real data to suggest that's the case? Honestly not meaning to be confrontational it's just a genuine question.

This ‘milder’ thing apparently came partly from the UK experts using data from 132 patients ( yikes) plus the experiences of SA who have a far younger population profile has they’ve been hit harder by the previous variants giving them more built in immunity


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[Zizu]

Originally Posted by All The Jingle Ladies

I know someone who works in the NHS

So are you playing that card ?


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[thesheriff443]

I would say this variation of covid is milder because people who had the vaccine caught covid and the vaccine weakened it so when they passed it on it was diluted

[thesheriff443]

It may be a man on YouTube but the data he is showing has been collected by independent professionals

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Mystic Mock

So it's more than one person then.

My bad.

A serious question that I have TS, why are the Media and some Scientists coming forward trying to say that this variant is "milder" if there isn't even any real data to suggest that's the case? Honestly not meaning to be confrontational it's just a genuine question.

There are indications that it causes fewer cases of serious illness and fewer deaths per case. It is still unknown if this is because it’s a less severe strain or because of protections from a combination of vaccinations and past infections.

In terms of the effect on the NHS - it also doesn’t matter if the transmission rates are sufficiently high. If the severe illness rates are 5x lower but the number of new infections at one time are, let’s say, 7x higher then the cumulative effect of that on the already-strained NHS could be devastating.

But that’s only taking Covid numbers into consideration. When you add general NHS staff sickness on top, and the massive understaffing problem that already exists, on top of that it looks even worse.

Staff are leaving the health service at unprecedented rates because of the pressure that the public is happily lumping on. Career switching, early retirement, etc. and the UK does not have the capacity to train replacements fast enough. A combination of Brexit and Covid means we can’t source staff from abroad either. It’s a ticking time bomb.

So what irks me about all of this “ahh it’s all fine people are overreacting!” Rhetoric is that people will believe it’s super mild and safe, go about their business and fail to bring down transmission rates, and the already-struggling NHS will not be able to take the strain. More staff will go on long term sick. More will change careers. More will simply burn out.

I wonder how many of those declaring it all hunky-dory have actually been seeking hospital treatment lately? 12+ month waits for scans, 7+ hour A&E waits, access to things like physio or routine checks is in the gutter.

Yes the issues stretch back years but that’s the point. The NHS was not prepped and ready for a global pandemic… it was already operating near capacity. People are adopting this “well if it’s more mild we have to just get back to normal!” Attitude on the assumption that these systems can take the strain of it. They cannot. If hospital cases do continue to rocket, and they may well do just that if infection rates are high enough mild strain or not, and you get hit by a car… you’re probably going to bleed out lying on the road, because we’re playing silly buggers with NHS capacity and there’ll be no ambulance to pick you up, and no one available to treat you at A&E even if you do get there.

Again this isn’t doomsday pondering it’s already happening. Ambulance waits are through the roof and A&Es country wide are bursting at the seams.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by thesheriff443

It may be a man on YouTube but the data he is showing has been collected by independent professionals

His videos are actually not bad but anyone taking them as the full picture needs to give their head a wobble - he’s just one man trying to simplify SOME of the data for a wider audience, it’s not exhaustive science. Sad thing is he doesn’t even pretend it is, it’s other people with rose-tinted glasses interpreting his videos as something they are not (I.e. a big “all clear” sign)

[thesheriff443]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

His videos are actually not bad but anyone taking them as the full picture needs to give their head a wobble - he’s just one man trying to simplify SOME of the data for a wider audience, it’s not exhaustive science. Sad thing is he doesn’t even pretend it is, it’s other people with rose-tinted glasses interpreting his videos as something they are not (I.e. a big “all clear” sign)

Who has said on here that we are all clear?

[arista]

[arista]

[arista]

[arista]

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

There are indications that it causes fewer cases of serious illness and fewer deaths per case. It is still unknown if this is because it’s a less severe strain or because of protections from a combination of vaccinations and past infections.

In terms of the effect on the NHS - it also doesn’t matter if the transmission rates are sufficiently high. If the severe illness rates are 5x lower but the number of new infections at one time are, let’s say, 7x higher then the cumulative effect of that on the already-strained NHS could be devastating.

But that’s only taking Covid numbers into consideration. When you add general NHS staff sickness on top, and the massive understaffing problem that already exists, on top of that it looks even worse.

Staff are leaving the health service at unprecedented rates because of the pressure that the public is happily lumping on. Career switching, early retirement, etc. and the UK does not have the capacity to train replacements fast enough. A combination of Brexit and Covid means we can’t source staff from abroad either. It’s a ticking time bomb.

So what irks me about all of this “ahh it’s all fine people are overreacting!” Rhetoric is that people will believe it’s super mild and safe, go about their business and fail to bring down transmission rates, and the already-struggling NHS will not be able to take the strain. More staff will go on long term sick. More will change careers. More will simply burn out.

I wonder how many of those declaring it all hunky-dory have actually been seeking hospital treatment lately? 12+ month waits for scans, 7+ hour A&E waits, access to things like physio or routine checks is in the gutter.

Yes the issues stretch back years but that’s the point. The NHS was not prepped and ready for a global pandemic… it was already operating near capacity. People are adopting this “well if it’s more mild we have to just get back to normal!” Attitude on the assumption that these systems can take the strain of it. They cannot. If hospital cases do continue to rocket, and they may well do just that if infection rates are high enough mild strain or not, and you get hit by a car… you’re probably going to bleed out lying on the road, because we’re playing silly buggers with NHS capacity and there’ll be no ambulance to pick you up, and no one available to treat you at A&E even if you do get there.

Again this isn’t doomsday pondering it’s already happening. Ambulance waits are through the roof and A&Es country wide are bursting at the seams.

As regards job switching.. I saw something saying that 90% of teachers / TA are thinking of leaving education..
I’m guessing the other 10% are the older teachers who are just holding onto get the best pension figure ..


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[Mystic Mock]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

There are indications that it causes fewer cases of serious illness and fewer deaths per case. It is still unknown if this is because it’s a less severe strain or because of protections from a combination of vaccinations and past infections.

In terms of the effect on the NHS - it also doesn’t matter if the transmission rates are sufficiently high. If the severe illness rates are 5x lower but the number of new infections at one time are, let’s say, 7x higher then the cumulative effect of that on the already-strained NHS could be devastating.

But that’s only taking Covid numbers into consideration. When you add general NHS staff sickness on top, and the massive understaffing problem that already exists, on top of that it looks even worse.

Staff are leaving the health service at unprecedented rates because of the pressure that the public is happily lumping on. Career switching, early retirement, etc. and the UK does not have the capacity to train replacements fast enough. A combination of Brexit and Covid means we can’t source staff from abroad either. It’s a ticking time bomb.

So what irks me about all of this “ahh it’s all fine people are overreacting!” Rhetoric is that people will believe it’s super mild and safe, go about their business and fail to bring down transmission rates, and the already-struggling NHS will not be able to take the strain. More staff will go on long term sick. More will change careers. More will simply burn out.

I wonder how many of those declaring it all hunky-dory have actually been seeking hospital treatment lately? 12+ month waits for scans, 7+ hour A&E waits, access to things like physio or routine checks is in the gutter.

Yes the issues stretch back years but that’s the point. The NHS was not prepped and ready for a global pandemic… it was already operating near capacity. People are adopting this “well if it’s more mild we have to just get back to normal!” Attitude on the assumption that these systems can take the strain of it. They cannot. If hospital cases do continue to rocket, and they may well do just that if infection rates are high enough mild strain or not, and you get hit by a car… you’re probably going to bleed out lying on the road, because we’re playing silly buggers with NHS capacity and there’ll be no ambulance to pick you up, and no one available to treat you at A&E even if you do get there.

Again this isn’t doomsday pondering it’s already happening. Ambulance waits are through the roof and A&Es country wide are bursting at the seams.

Okay thanks for the reply, same to Zizu too.

You both make some sound arguments tbf, especially about the issues currently present within the NHS.

If I'm being entirely honest I just want the whole thing to be over, that's why I'm gonna try and remain optimistic, but tbh you're someone that I think is quite knowledgeable on the Forum so if you're still uncertain about Omicron then I will take that on board.

[bitontheslide]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

I know and work with hundreds of people who work in the NHS.

Why are you again asking me to “do the working” on numbers that I’ve quite clearly said we don’t have? We don’t have enough data to draw conclusions. It’s that simple.

That is simply untrue. There is plenty data and conclusions can be drawn at any time in the data collection process. If you draw conclusions at the beginning its like predicting the result of the general election after 1 result. It can be wildly off or it can be completely accurate, but as more data comes in, you can see trends appearing. This variation has spread like wildfire across the world, we have 180k + pieces of data available each day from the the uk alone. It doesn't take many days of that volume to see trends and form comparisons. To suggest otherwise as you seem to be doing is just wrong

[arista]

Originally Posted by Nicky91

for now i am not taking the covid vaccine

i have my reasons, and my reasons are fair for being 98% of the time introverted, and only being at home, or in the garden outside of our home and if i hear someone in the alley next to our home i keep at least couple of metres away from that area

and also i think they are coming with a adjusted vaccine against omicron variant, what i've read

so i rather wait until early spring or something and get two jabs of that one, rather than 2 jabs now and then 2 or 3 months later another jab which is just silly

This is so Typical of you Nicky in the Netherlands.

That Number 4 "Adjusted Vaccine"
will only work if you had the 3rd Vaccine.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by MeghansLetterToSanta

That is simply untrue. There is plenty data and conclusions can be drawn at any time in the data collection process. If you draw conclusions at the beginning its like predicting the result of the general election after 1 result. It can be wildly off or it can be completely accurate, but as more data comes in, you can see trends appearing. This variation has spread like wildfire across the world, we have 180k + pieces of data available each day from the the uk alone. It doesn't take many days of that volume to see trends and form comparisons. To suggest otherwise as you seem to be doing is just wrong

Identifying trends and using those trends to form a hypothesis is not the same thing as drawing conclusions - and therein lies the problem. An optimistic hypothesis is fine if it makes people feel better but drawing a conclusion from not enough data is bad science and just a bad idea generally.

Also observed correlation without control variables (as mass public data always is) does not imply causation. In other words, we have no idea if the lower death and hospitalisation figures are because “omicron is milder” or because of some other variable, such as a shift in infection demographic, effect of vaccination, old/vulnerable having previous natural immunity (or already being dead from it) etc.

People are using it to declare that Omicron is mild. We do not know that.

You can look at the lower deaths and say “phew, that’s good, hopefully something has changed that means things won’t be as bad as thought”.

You cannot look at it and say “Omg Omicron is clearly mild whup tee too Covid is just a cold now quick everyone, get back out there and snog!”

Not until there is real, robust, variable-controlled clinical data that actually shows the variant to be milder. Not until we’re well past the peak of infections and know how high that number will go.

It may be the case. I’ve never said otherwise. I’ve said there isn’t enough data to go on and there won’t be for probably another month or so. That is the simple fact. I know that people wish it wasn’t and want to believe that optimistic observations and predictions are facts. I know why. But I think it’s risky thinking - and certainly not thinking to base actual policy decisions on, as people seem to want to happen.

I think the phrase people need to keep in mind is “cautious optimism”. But maybe that’s a bit too “middle ground” for 2021, I know people are keen to throw their eggs into a basket.

[arista]

2022 we are getting a New Pill
for Covid.

That is a game change

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by arista

2022 we are getting a New Pill
for Covid.

That is a game change

… on the same sort of track, it COULD be a game changer if it’s highly effective in real-world clinical settings. Cautious optimism .

But yes on a more positive note about Covid… general understanding of virology (both the epidemiology and the clinical treatment of viral illness) in general has made huge leaps since 2019, and that’s something that might benefit us immensely beyond Covid. Efficient Anti-virals is the big one if they can be really nailed down. It would be nearly as big a moment in medicine as the discovery of antibiotics.

[Nicky91]

Pfizer is toxic rubbish

Modern is toxic rubbish

AstraZeneca is toxic rubbish

J&J is the worst of them all

[Nicky91]

but i'll get myself jabbed with pfizer, as i have no own opinion

no one has a own opinion anymore

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Toy Santa

There are indications that it causes fewer cases of serious illness and fewer deaths per case. It is still unknown if this is because it’s a less severe strain or because of protections from a combination of vaccinations and past infections.

In terms of the effect on the NHS - it also doesn’t matter if the transmission rates are sufficiently high. If the severe illness rates are 5x lower but the number of new infections at one time are, let’s say, 7x higher then the cumulative effect of that on the already-strained NHS could be devastating.

But that’s only taking Covid numbers into consideration. When you add general NHS staff sickness on top, and the massive understaffing problem that already exists, on top of that it looks even worse.

Staff are leaving the health service at unprecedented rates because of the pressure that the public is happily lumping on. Career switching, early retirement, etc. and the UK does not have the capacity to train replacements fast enough. A combination of Brexit and Covid means we can’t source staff from abroad either. It’s a ticking time bomb.

So what irks me about all of this “ahh it’s all fine people are overreacting!” Rhetoric is that people will believe it’s super mild and safe, go about their business and fail to bring down transmission rates, and the already-struggling NHS will not be able to take the strain. More staff will go on long term sick. More will change careers. More will simply burn out.

I wonder how many of those declaring it all hunky-dory have actually been seeking hospital treatment lately? 12+ month waits for scans, 7+ hour A&E waits, access to things like physio or routine checks is in the gutter.

Yes the issues stretch back years but that’s the point. The NHS was not prepped and ready for a global pandemic… it was already operating near capacity. People are adopting this “well if it’s more mild we have to just get back to normal!” Attitude on the assumption that these systems can take the strain of it. They cannot. If hospital cases do continue to rocket, and they may well do just that if infection rates are high enough mild strain or not, and you get hit by a car… you’re probably going to bleed out lying on the road, because we’re playing silly buggers with NHS capacity and there’ll be no ambulance to pick you up, and no one available to treat you at A&E even if you do get there.

Again this isn’t doomsday pondering it’s already happening. Ambulance waits are through the roof and A&Es country wide are bursting at the seams.

I agree with all the points you detail in that post TS.

Your 5th paragraph particularly strong.

Actually, your whole post above is impressive.
I've nothing to add to it, it just about covers all my own current thinking on this issue at the present time.