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Old 30-08-2007, 04:27 PM #1
Terpsichore Terpsichore is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 36
Terpsichore Terpsichore is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 36
Default Betting Odds and Bad Journalism

I've started a new betting thread, since the other one is getting a bit long now. Here is how the betting odds have changed over the last 6 days. The figures are averages calculated by me from across a range of bookies. The latest entry is today's averages, as they were at 3.00 pm.

Twins -- 1.33 -- 1.32 --- 1.29 --- 1.29 --- 1.23 --- 1.15
Brian --- 3.32 -- 3.33 --- 3.57 --- 3.57 --- 4.03 --- 4.64
Liam -- 12.90 - 13.27 - 18.29 - 20.00 -- 18.58 - 21.45

Thus the twins' odds continue to shorten day by day, while Brian's and Liam's continue to lengthen. There are two gaps growing - one between the twins and Brian, and the other between Brian and Liam. It looks like any close contest tomorrow will be between the lower three, Carole, Ziggy and Jonty. The finishing order of the first three looks signed and sealed.

It's worth remarking that The Daily Star, whose memorable "neck and neck" article entertained us yesterday, is becoming further confused.

"SIZZLING sisters Sam and Amanda Marchant are at the centre of a sensational £5million betting stampede," they yelled, enthusing about punters' "frantic night of gambling in a desperate bid to make sure they are crowned the winners of Big Brother."

So evidently the shaky grasp of arithmetic that Star hacks showed yesterday is matched today by their shaky grasp of the difference between laying a bet and casting a vote. But the arithmetic is a chronic problem, and it has led to problems with their English, mostly because the "dead heat" they promised is a prospect they are unwilling to let go of.

"We revealed yesterday that experts had admitted there was almost nothing between them, and the race to the finish line would prove to be a photo finish," they confided, without naming the experts who told them that. "The girls are the red-hot 1-6 favourites to win the show with Brian giving them a run for their money with odds of 7-2."

Ah, we're back to the idea of 1-6 going "neck and neck" with 7-2. But maybe we shouldn't be surprised to find Star hacks whose knowledge of elementary mathematics is on the same level as Amanda's knowledge of different types of tree, or Brian's knowledge of Elizabethan dramatists. We should stop calling the tabloids "red-tops" and start calling them "yogurt-tops" instead.

However, going back to "the frantic night of gambling", there is a difference between laying a bet and casting a vote, and for that reason betting odds do not necessarily represent the reality. But while bookies' odds are sometimes wrong as an indicator of the final result, they are not usually wrong by such a big amount as they would have to be here, if the twins were to lose. So, if they did lose, it would be an upset of epic proportions.
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