[Scarlett.]

The recession in Britain ended more than two months ago, one of the country's leading forecasters has claimed.

Output stopped sinking in March and rose in both April and May according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr).

It marks the first monthly gains in gross domestic product since April last year, Niesr said.
Thing of the past? One of the many closing down sales seen on the high street in recent months

Thing of the past? One of the many closing down sales seen on the high street in recent months

Adding to the optimism, manufacturing output also rose by 0.2 per cent between March and April.

Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said there are 'promising signs' that the recession is now bottoming out both in the UK and overseas.

The news gave a shot in the arm to financial markets, as the FTSE 100 recorded its first rally in three days with the pound rising to $1.63 against the dollar.

Rising house prices and further positive rallies in the City in recent weeks have also suggested the worst of the downturn is over.

Economists are becoming more optimistic that debt-fuelled state spending plans and near-zero interest rates around the world are helping crush the threat of a global depression.

Although the GDP rise which Niesr indicated is not a powerful gain, it suggests the economy is finally entering recovery mode.

March marked the 'trough' of the recession, Niesr suggested, with a return to growth forecast for the third quarter of the year.

Niesr economist Ray Barrell said: 'The last couple of months have been looking better than we would have anticipated in April.

'We might now be at the bottom. We thought it was going to be July before this happened. However, it could be three years before we see output back at the level we saw in April 2008.

'There is a lot of pain to come. And there will be long-term scar on the economy because of the problems with the banking system.'

But Niesr warned a slight upturn in economic output will not prevent further rises in unemployment, which stands at 2.22million.

'THERE IS A LOT OF PAIN TO COME'

Mr Barrell expects joblessness to continue increasing for another year, as firms axe more workers to cut costs.

And he said the Bank of England should not respond to economic growth by increasing interest rates, which stand at an all-time low of 0.5 per cent.

'The bank should cautiously wait,' he argued. 'I would not be thinking about interest rate rises for the next year because the situation is still dire.

'Saying that it has stopped getting worse is not the same as saying we are about to have an inflationary boom.'

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mr Sentance said in a speech in Aberdeen that he expects a recovery 'either later this year or early in 2010'.

He said: 'The big shocks to global consumer and business confidence which we saw last autumn are now beginning to wear off.

'At the same time, the very big policy stimulus that has been provided by fiscal and monetary authorities around the world should now be beginning to be felt.'

And he signalled the MPC will respond quickly to signs of a resurgence in inflation, which has remained stronger than the Bank expected recently. A recovery needs to be helped by a continuation of low and stable inflation that has generally been seen since the 1990s, he said.

Daily Mail

[andyman]

The damage is already done, but GDP needs to pick up slowly which it has so lets hope the banks start trusting each other.. Most banks have dumped their toxic debts into a "bad bank" which of course the public pick up the bill.

[Scarlett.]

Aye, we knew it wouldnt be a sudden painless recovery, but its good to know we have already hit rock bottom and are on the way back up

[NettoSuperstar!]

Thanks to the One eyed Scottish man he got some brains! not like Corrupt Cameron!

[30stone]

Then why is my petrol gone back up to Ł1 a litre

It was at 90.9p a litre

[ange7]

Originally posted by 30stone
Then why is my petrol gone back up to Ł1 a litre

It was at 90.9p a litre

that's actually a sign of a stronger economy... not a weaker one. It means there is more demand.

[NettoSuperstar!]

Gordon Browns policies intelligent...UK economy best in Europe says nobel prize winning economist!

well done one eyed Brown!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-sto...5875-21438943/

David Camerons cuts to public services, to give tax breaks to the highest earners will make recession worse!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-sto...5875-21438548/

[Kore]

the only way is up!

Wahey

[Scarlett.]

Originally posted by NettoSuperstar!
Gordon Browns policies intelligent...UK economy best in Europe says nobel prize winning economist!

well done one eyed Brown!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-sto...5875-21438943/

David Camerons cuts to public services, to give tax breaks to the highest earners will make recession worse!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-sto...5875-21438548/

Life in the correct lane.

[Jayson]

Im glad that things are gonna get better, finally