odds for 'any other' slashed

[newspresenter]

To 40/1 from 1000/1, but why?

[Patrick]

Davina!

[newspresenter]

100/1 now, it wouldn't surprise me if BB served an incredible twist in this final devil show

[Claymores]

That is not slashed - that means collapsed massively. Essentially nobody will take 'any other' as nobody but the 5 is going to win. The 40/1 was on the vague hope that another candidate could be eligible.

[Nemo123]

What are the odds on one of the other 4 winning, bar Alex?

[Claymores]

100/1 now, it wouldn't surprise me if BB served an incredible twist in this final devil show

Think before you type - if they added someone even at 8.30pm, would the receive more votes to win than the person in 5th?

[newspresenter]

That is not slashed - that means collapsed massively. Essentially nobody will take 'any other' as nobody but the 5 is going to win. The 40/1 was on the vague hope that another candidate could be eligible.

They did with me the other day when it was known someone else was going in, i layed a measly £6 at 80/1

[Claymores]

What are the odds on one of the other 4 winning, bar Alex?

There is no "Winner Withou Alex" market.

Live odds from Betfair:

Alex 4/11

Dane 11/2
Vinnie 9/1
Janas 30/1
Steph 40/1

[Claymores]

They did with me the other day when it was known someone else was going in, i layed a measly £6 at 80/1

Easy way to take £6 off some mug!!! Well done!!!!

[Patrick]

Maybe Satan can go in tomarrow morning and will win!

[Vicky.]

Janas 30/1


Wow...thought he would have better odds than that.

The jonas brigade arent going to be happy...

[Nemo123]

There is no "Winner Withou Alex" market.

Live odds from Betfair:



Dane 11/2
Vinnie 9/1
Janas 30/1
Steph 40/1

If you can add those 4 fractions I think you get the odds on it being one of them.

[Claymores]

Maybe Satan can go in tomarrow morning and will win!

Only if he gets Saddam to hit speed dial :hugesmile:

[Nemo123]

I think it adds up to approx 3/1 the field, (or 12/4). So Alex is still favourite to beat all others put together.

[Claymores]

If you can add those 4 fractions I think you get the odds on it being one of them.

No you don't - it would takes ages to explain why in a 2 way contest you don't necessarily get stuff like 1/3 vs 3/1, but please trust it doesn't work that way. For example, the odds are very generous on Steph as reasitically speaking she will not win- so people might be willi ng to offer 75/1 just to fleece you of your stake money at virtually 0 risk.

[Claymores]

I think it adds up to approx 3/1 the field, (or 12/4). So Alex is still favourite to beat all others put together.

Please read my post above - it simply doesn't work that way.

[Nemo123]

Please read my post above - it simply doesn't work that way.

I think it does, otherwise you could just blanket bet the field and not lose. And say steph DID (by some miracle) come in at 75/1, you'd be quids in.

[Claymores]

Wow...thought he would have better odds than that.

The jonas brigade arent going to be happy...

Betfair is always more generous than the bookies who have closed overnight - but even at close they were offering 15/1 to 17/1 ............a good margin behind the top 3

[Claymores]

I think it does, otherwise you could just blanket bet the field and not lose. And say steph DID (by some miracle) come in at 75/1, you'd be quids in.

Believe as you wish (as I'd say to Stephen). And yes you would in my given example - or more realistically you'd just be £10 poorer.

[Nemo123]

Odds have to balance on Betfair because you can bet and then lay. If there was a leak, you could just bet cheap and lay dear.

That's how it used to work, if during a football game a team was winnng 3-0 with ten minutes left, you might get 1/100 to bet, and 100/1 theirr opponent. The market would shut up, book would close when there wasn't the remotest possibility of a team winning/losing.

The margin between backing and laying went to the house, Betfair, like commission.

That's my understanding, I had a lot of fun during the 2006 WC on Betfair.

[Claymores]

Odds have to balance on Betfair because you can bet and then lay. If there was a leak, you could just bet cheap and lay dear.

That's how it used to work, if during a football game a team was winnng 3-0 with ten minutes left, you might get 1/100 to bet, and 100/1 theirr opponent. The market would shut up, book would close when there wasn't the remotest possibility of a team winning/losing.

Why would you bet 1/100 on one and 100/1 on other? You wouldn't.

Where most amateur traders (me) make money is on trading on trends - so for example I layed on Jonas @ 10/1 when the polls being overoptomistic leading to an overoptomistic price. I was able to back @ 40/1 this evening an amount which means I make a profit irrespective of whether he wins or not. His outcome is now irrelevant to me.

Similarly, I have schemes on them all. I've not actually made a 'back to win' which I'll keep.

[Claymores]

Odds have to balance on Betfair because you can bet and then lay. If there was a leak, you could just bet cheap and lay dear.

That's how it used to work, if during a football game a team was winnng 3-0 with ten minutes left, you might get 1/100 to bet, and 100/1 theirr opponent. The market would shut up, book would close when there wasn't the remotest possibility of a team winning/losing.

The margin between backing and laying went to the house, Betfair, like commission.

That's my understanding, I had a lot of fun during the 2006 WC on Betfair.

Your understanding is just about right, except markets are never in equilibrium

I'm tempted to buy more Jonas if I can get offered 40/1 again as that seems way too generous! But I'm crap at winner guessing - only serously gamble on evictions!!!!!

[spitfire]

For example, the odds are very generous on Steph as reasitically speaking she will not win- so people might be willi ng to offer 75/1 just to fleece you of your stake money at virtually 0 risk.
This is what i do.
If you want 39/1 on Terry Jenkins,get your butt on betfair.;)