[newspresenter]

To 40/1 from 1000/1, but why?

[Patrick]

Davina!

[newspresenter]

100/1 now, it wouldn't surprise me if BB served an incredible twist in this final devil show

[Claymores]

That is not slashed - that means collapsed massively. Essentially nobody will take 'any other' as nobody but the 5 is going to win. The 40/1 was on the vague hope that another candidate could be eligible.

[Nemo123]

What are the odds on one of the other 4 winning, bar Alex?

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by newspresenter

100/1 now, it wouldn't surprise me if BB served an incredible twist in this final devil show

Think before you type - if they added someone even at 8.30pm, would the receive more votes to win than the person in 5th?

[newspresenter]

Originally Posted by Claymores

That is not slashed - that means collapsed massively. Essentially nobody will take 'any other' as nobody but the 5 is going to win. The 40/1 was on the vague hope that another candidate could be eligible.

They did with me the other day when it was known someone else was going in, i layed a measly Ł6 at 80/1

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by Nemo123

What are the odds on one of the other 4 winning, bar Alex?

There is no "Winner Withou Alex" market.

Live odds from Betfair:

Alex 4/11

Dane 11/2
Vinnie 9/1
Janas 30/1
Steph 40/1

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by newspresenter

They did with me the other day when it was known someone else was going in, i layed a measly Ł6 at 80/1

Easy way to take Ł6 off some mug!!! Well done!!!!

[Patrick]

Maybe Satan can go in tomarrow morning and will win!

[Vicky.]

Originally Posted by Claymores

Janas 30/1

Wow...thought he would have better odds than that.

The jonas brigade arent going to be happy...

[Nemo123]

Originally Posted by Claymores

There is no "Winner Withou Alex" market.

Live odds from Betfair:



Dane 11/2
Vinnie 9/1
Janas 30/1
Steph 40/1

If you can add those 4 fractions I think you get the odds on it being one of them.

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by Patrick

Maybe Satan can go in tomarrow morning and will win!

Only if he gets Saddam to hit speed dial

[Nemo123]

I think it adds up to approx 3/1 the field, (or 12/4). So Alex is still favourite to beat all others put together.

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by Nemo123

If you can add those 4 fractions I think you get the odds on it being one of them.

No you don't - it would takes ages to explain why in a 2 way contest you don't necessarily get stuff like 1/3 vs 3/1, but please trust it doesn't work that way. For example, the odds are very generous on Steph as reasitically speaking she will not win- so people might be willi ng to offer 75/1 just to fleece you of your stake money at virtually 0 risk.

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by Nemo123

I think it adds up to approx 3/1 the field, (or 12/4). So Alex is still favourite to beat all others put together.

Please read my post above - it simply doesn't work that way.

[Nemo123]

Originally Posted by Claymores

Please read my post above - it simply doesn't work that way.

I think it does, otherwise you could just blanket bet the field and not lose. And say steph DID (by some miracle) come in at 75/1, you'd be quids in.

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by VickyJ

Wow...thought he would have better odds than that.

The jonas brigade arent going to be happy...

Betfair is always more generous than the bookies who have closed overnight - but even at close they were offering 15/1 to 17/1 ............a good margin behind the top 3

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by Nemo123

I think it does, otherwise you could just blanket bet the field and not lose. And say steph DID (by some miracle) come in at 75/1, you'd be quids in.

Believe as you wish (as I'd say to Stephen). And yes you would in my given example - or more realistically you'd just be Ł10 poorer.

[Nemo123]

Odds have to balance on Betfair because you can bet and then lay. If there was a leak, you could just bet cheap and lay dear.

That's how it used to work, if during a football game a team was winnng 3-0 with ten minutes left, you might get 1/100 to bet, and 100/1 theirr opponent. The market would shut up, book would close when there wasn't the remotest possibility of a team winning/losing.

The margin between backing and laying went to the house, Betfair, like commission.

That's my understanding, I had a lot of fun during the 2006 WC on Betfair.

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by Nemo123

Odds have to balance on Betfair because you can bet and then lay. If there was a leak, you could just bet cheap and lay dear.

That's how it used to work, if during a football game a team was winnng 3-0 with ten minutes left, you might get 1/100 to bet, and 100/1 theirr opponent. The market would shut up, book would close when there wasn't the remotest possibility of a team winning/losing.

Why would you bet 1/100 on one and 100/1 on other? You wouldn't.

Where most amateur traders (me) make money is on trading on trends - so for example I layed on Jonas @ 10/1 when the polls being overoptomistic leading to an overoptomistic price. I was able to back @ 40/1 this evening an amount which means I make a profit irrespective of whether he wins or not. His outcome is now irrelevant to me.

Similarly, I have schemes on them all. I've not actually made a 'back to win' which I'll keep.

[Claymores]

Originally Posted by Nemo123

Odds have to balance on Betfair because you can bet and then lay. If there was a leak, you could just bet cheap and lay dear.

That's how it used to work, if during a football game a team was winnng 3-0 with ten minutes left, you might get 1/100 to bet, and 100/1 theirr opponent. The market would shut up, book would close when there wasn't the remotest possibility of a team winning/losing.

The margin between backing and laying went to the house, Betfair, like commission.

That's my understanding, I had a lot of fun during the 2006 WC on Betfair.

Your understanding is just about right, except markets are never in equilibrium

I'm tempted to buy more Jonas if I can get offered 40/1 again as that seems way too generous! But I'm crap at winner guessing - only serously gamble on evictions!!!!!

[spitfire]

Originally Posted by Claymores

For example, the odds are very generous on Steph as reasitically speaking she will not win- so people might be willi ng to offer 75/1 just to fleece you of your stake money at virtually 0 risk.

This is what i do.
If you want 39/1 on Terry Jenkins,get your butt on betfair.