Only Conservatives give the Public In or Out of Europe Vote... Labour does not trust

[arista]

Labour Confirmed today the does not trust the British
Public to Vote on Europe.


Only with the Conservatives
do you get a In Or Out of Europe



[Miliband rules out an EU referendum to
protect Labour's 'only policy which businesses like' ]

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2578761/Miliband-rules-EU-referendum-Labour-leader-refuses-match-PMs-poll-pledge.html#ixzz2vkjMP7va
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/03/11/article-2578761-19EF142D000005DC-511_306x423.jpg
http://news.sky.com/story/1224347/ed-miliband-to-make-eu-referendum-pledge

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/12/cameron-miliband-eu-policy-no-referendum-choice

[joeysteele]

Not a question of trust for me but I don't think a great many of the voters themselves think they can make a well informed decision as to how to vote as to the EU and I also believe they would never get a fair balanced argument presented by the media either.

I myself would vote in any referendum to stay in and I also believe probably most of the UK 'thinks' we would be better in the EU but know very little as to it and would need likely more than 10 years to cover all the arguments for and against to make a firm decision.

For instance, I have discussed this today with 20 people,small number I agree as we watched Ed Miliband's speech.
10 simply said they know too little to say what their view is and would not bother to vote in any referendum.
6 said they would likely vote to stay in, 4 said they would vote to leave.
However, of the 4 who'd leave, they would all go and vote in a referendum.
Of the 6 who prefer staying only 3 would likely go and vote, especially in a referendum held outside of a general election date.

The person I don't trust as to this is actually David Cameron nor ever would I on this issue.
He cannot yet set a firm date for a referendum, that would need to be likely approved by Parliament nearer the time, all depending on how long his negotiations, (whatever they even are), take too.
He would need an overall majority of at least likely 75 to 80, since at least a fifth of his party who lean to the EU would not risk holding a refererendum that looked like being lost.
So I can see him saying, he hasn't the commons arithmetic to get a referendum final date bill through.

For me,Ed Milibands plan is actually a good compromise, if any new treaties come up that involve the loss of powers from the UK to the EU, that will trigger an in/out referendum.
As he said,a simple treaty referendum of yes or no, doesn't work, where in other Countries holding such treaty only referenda have just been asked again until they agreed.
His plan also leaves the EU with the knowledge that any further treaty changes would set off an in out referendum in the UK.

The Conservative party has never delivered any referendum promise as to the EU before, they even took the UK into the Common Market in 1973, as it was then, without asking the Voters in a referendum then either.
It was Harold Wilson's Labour govt that did new negotiations of the entry terms and then delivered a referendum of in or out in 1975.

What is the point of wasting money on holding a referendum, that is likely to get a low turnout when these conditions as to future treaties are in place now.
I for one, don't want to risk stepping into the unknown by sleepwalking out of the EU,I prefer myself to stay there now that we are in.
Especially with these new safeguards that this Govt has put in place and then Ed Miliband's would add to with his new policy.

Ed Miliband's policy makes perfect sense to me, and I think over time it it will to those who feel they likely could never make their minds up really as to the good and bad of the EU.
It is a policy that may even bring relief too to some of those very undecided voters.

[Livia]

Ed Miliband has been a huge weapon in the Conservatives' armoury ever since he shafted his own brother to get the job. I think this has probably handed the next general election, if not to the Tories, then to UKIP.

[Livia]

I don't think there would be a low turnout for an 'in/out' referendum, joey. Quite the reverse. I think people would turn out in their droves to vote 'out'. We do more trade with the USA than we do with the EU and we don't have to pay an extortionate amount of cash to do it. I think lots of people are tired of having decisions made for the people of this country by a completely unelected body not even on these shores.

For a while I wasn't sure where I stood on the Europe question. I know where I stand now, and it would be an 'out' vote for me.

[user104658]

Ed Miliband has been a huge weapon in the Conservatives' armoury ever since he shafted his own brother to get the job. I think this has probably handed the next general election, if not to the Tories, then to UKIP.

I'm going to have to assume you're not serious here. For one, I think you're majorly underestimating the current unpopularity of the Tories...

And secondly, UKIP? It's still questionable that they'll take 3rd place from the Lib Dems, and thats with the Lib Dems in tatters...

[joeysteele]

Ed Miliband has been a huge weapon in the Conservatives' armoury ever since he shafted his own brother to get the job. I think this has probably handed the next general election, if not to the Tories, then to UKIP.

In truth, only UKIP is the party for those against the EU and who really want to leave to go to.
No way do the Conservatives really want to leave the EU,they are a responsible party,which is why I see if they got a small overall majority that we would get the.'We haven't got the numbers to get the referendum date through parliament' argument likely.

If they don't get an overall majority then we don't get a referendum from them either anyway.

No one even has any idea at all as to what David Cameron wants to negotiate on,in fact he should have done this these last 2 years instead of talking about it and then in a much stronger position be able to say at the General election when any referendum could have been held.

The procrastination is for me, just to buy time and possibly an election win,however he has a problem, he has made promises on a few things that he has broken.
A good number of people don't believe him as to this either.
He isn't just asking for a blank cheque as to this issue,he is asking for a whole book of them

UKIP will atract votes but they ned to get to 22%/23% in the polls before they even get to likely win a handful of seats.

I just think a great number of people are totally confused by the EU and switch off when it comes up.
I would expect the dismal turnout too, that was there for the AV referendum, happening for any EU referendum held outside of a general election date.

[joeysteele]

I don't think there would be a low turnout for an 'in/out' referendum, joey. Quite the reverse. I think people would turn out in their droves to vote 'out'. We do more trade with the USA than we do with the EU and we don't have to pay an extortionate amount of cash to do it. I think lots of people are tired of having decisions made for the people of this country by a completely unelected body not even on these shores.

For a while I wasn't sure where I stood on the Europe question. I know where I stand now, and it would be an 'out' vote for me.

Outside of a general election date, I would say the biggest turnout would come from those wanting to leave.
I myself would never vote to leave the EU because in fact the USA itself wouldn't want us to either.
I think we would create massive difficulties for ourselves if we did.
We either are a leading Nation fo the World or a bit player and I don't want the UK to be the latter.

I agree that the voters would vote in droves to come out, that however would be a disaster that in fact the majority of the UK could be in favour of staying in but the out voters carried the day.
Which is why I don't believe the referendum could be held,if that seemed likely to happen, by even a Conservative Govt.
For me, it would be the worst decision ever made by the voters of the UK if that happened,for me 100%.

The EU has its faults, no doubt, but outside it, we can influence nothing, nothing at all,that would be a massive backward step for the UK in my opinion.

[Livia]

I'm going to have to assume you're not serious here. For one, I think you're majorly underestimating the current unpopularity of the Tories...

And secondly, UKIP? It's still questionable that they'll take 3rd place from the Lib Dems, and thats with the Lib Dems in tatters...

I'm deadly serious. There's more than a year to go till the general election. The economy is recovering, unemployment is down, they're the only party to promise a referendum on Europe, the aliented party faithful are starting to return... meanwhile Ed Miliband continues to be a great asset to the Tories.

I don't think it's questionable that UKIP will take third palce from the LibDems. Let's see what happens at the Euro election in May. That's going to be very telling for all the parties.

[Crimson Dynamo]

The economic cycle favours the tories. They will be able to claim the economy at the election and thats a kicker.

[Livia]

Outside of a general election date, I would say the biggest turnout would come from those wanting to leave.
I myself would never vote to leave the EU because in fact the USA itself wouldn't want us to either.
I think we would create massive difficulties for ourselves if we did.
We either are a leading Nation fo the World or a bit player and I don't want the UK to be the latter.

I agree that the voters would vote in droves to come out, that however would be a disaster that in fact the majority of the UK could be in favour of staying in but the out voters carried the day.
Which is why I don't believe the referendum could be held,if that seemed likely to happen, by even a Conservative Govt.
For me, it would be the worst decision ever made by the voters of the UK if that happened,for me 100%.

The EU has its faults, no doubt, but outside it, we can influence nothing, nothing at all,that would be a massive backward step for the UK in my opinion.

I don't see what it really has to do with the USA what happens in Europe, any more than internal US affairs has anything to do with the EU.

We are a major player on the world stage, I see no reason that that might change just because we cease to be a member of the EU. Businesses that trade with us now would trade with us after.

We are not equal in Europe. We pay so much money but I don't believe we get much back. As a Brit, get a job in Germany and you will have to take out medical insurance before you take up the job. Be a German and get a job in the UK and you have free access to the NHS - a service for which we all pay through the nose - completely for free. There is no balance.

I can't see how it can be a bad thing if the majority of people vote to leave the EU. Surely that's democracy? The Labour Party is not going to give the people a chance to vote in a referendum because they know damn well what the result would be, so in my view this decision is undemocratic.

Enjoyed your posts though joey.

[MTVN]

Yep if I was a betting man I'd fancy the Tories as well, the strength of the recovery in the last few months has actually been pretty remarkable, the UK is the envy of much of Europe; countries like Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Greece, where their economies are still struggling badly. Labours only weapon against the Tories now is that living standards havent improved but an economic recovery usually precedes a living standards increase so who knows how things will look in a years time

[arista]

No Joey you are not in touch with the Older Voters
more and more demand a In or Out Vote on Europe.


Many have never had a chance

This is Special
above Student Level

[joeysteele]

No Joey you are not in touch with the Older Voters
more and more demand a In or Out Vote on Europe.


Many have never had a chance

This is Special
above Student Level

Across the board you will find people have mixed views as to the EU.
After all,all people over 57 got to vote in the 1975 referendum.
I find in all ages those for and against.

I predict here and now that unless the Conservative party got something like an 80+ overall majority in 2015,then no way will they hold a referendum on the EU that looked to have a chance fo bringing an out result.
The pro Europe part of the Conservative party would rebel and block such a bill being enacted.
UKIP well know that too and will play on that in 2015.

No way will MPs with the thinking of Ken Clarke ever support a referendum bill on the EU that could risk the UK leaving.

I also don't think the economy improving,(although it is nowhere near where it should be and the deficit will still be far higher than this Govt said it had to be in 2015), will help the Conservatives win actually.
I see the economy improving as a likely possible handicap for the Conservatives.

Generally when things improve that is when the voters feel they can sit back and let Labour in again.
It is when times are difficult they turn from Labour to the Conservatives.
If the economy looks stronger then that may oddly enough help Labour to a bigger win in 2015.

I still say Labour will win with at least a 30 overall majority.
I cannot at all see the Conservatives getting to over 6% ahead of Labour which they have to be just to get a tiny single figure overall majority probably.

The only party guaranteed, who would in fact deliver an EU referendum, would be UKIP and where they have to get to in the polls, to really influence that with all their other daft policies, is beyond all probability for me.
Not a hope.

[Livia]

In defence of joeysteele, I have to say he's one of the most informed and thoughtful people on the forum - of any age.

[arista]

Well before May 2015
Scotland is this year Sept
Vote up there.


In just weeks Politics can change in a big way
so I do not like "guess this will happen or predict"

[joeysteele]

Well before May 2015
Scotland is this year Sept
Vote up there.


In just weeks Politics can change in a big way
so I do not like "guess this will happen or predict"

True politics can change in weeks,Livia or yourself will be able to likely confirm who said the line ''a week is a long time in politics''.
I think it was Harold Wilson.

However I am happy to stand by my predictions,firstly, that Scotland wll vote to stay in the UK, secondly that Labour will win with at least a 30 overall majority.
Thirdly, no referendum vote at all as to the EU in the next parliament.

Whatever, when the election comes in 2015, no matter what the result,I hope you will be on here arista because I will enjoy debating with you the results as they happen.
Livia too of course and thank you for your kind words.

It was nice to be called a student by arista again, since I am now no longer one,other than a student of life and experiences that is.

[Livia]

Joey, after the general election, I'll see you on here for a post-match analysis :-)

(And you know it was Harold Wilson!)

[joeysteele]

Joey, after the general election, I'll see you on here for a post-match analysis :-)

(And you know it was Harold Wilson!)

I have just looked it up, I wasn't 100% sure, for some reason I keep thinking it was James Callaghan.

I am fascinated by general elections,I will look forward to that Livia, no matter what the result may be.

[user104658]

I'm deadly serious. There's more than a year to go till the general election. The economy is recovering, unemployment is down, they're the only party to promise a referendum on Europe, the aliented party faithful are starting to return... meanwhile Ed Miliband continues to be a great asset to the Tories.

I don't think it's questionable that UKIP will take third palce from the LibDems. Let's see what happens at the Euro election in May. That's going to be very telling for all the parties.

I think standard indicators are likely to be more than slightly off for the next general election to be honest - I think there stands to be an unusually large number of people at the polling stations who usually don't bother to vote at all. There specifically to vote "anti-Tory", or in other words mostly Labour (for lack of alternatives).

A year is a long time in politics but I don't think it's anywhere near long enough. The Tories would need not only to see an unprecedented upswing in the economy, but also a leap in both living standards and for a HUGE number of real (full time, contracted) jobs to suddenly become available.

I personally think it's highly unlikely that any economic recovery will trickle down to the average voter at any time before the next general election. It'll stay firmly in the pockets of a relative few.

[Livia]

I think standard indicators are likely to be more than slightly off for the next general election to be honest - I think there stands to be an unusually large number of people at the polling stations who usually don't bother to vote at all. There specifically to vote "anti-Tory", or in other words mostly Labour (for lack of alternatives).

A year is a long time in politics but I don't think it's anywhere near long enough. The Tories would need not only to see an unprecedented upswing in the economy, but also a leap in both living standards and for a HUGE number of real (full time, contracted) jobs to suddenly become available.

I personally think it's highly unlikely that any economic recovery will trickle down to the average voter at any time before the next general election. It'll stay firmly in the pockets of a relative few.

I don't agree. I worked for the Tories until December and I have to say, their confidence grew significantly in the couple of months before I left. Like you say, a year is a long time, but the campaigns have started already. That's not to say that I support them, but I do think they're working hard to win back their core voters and I think it's beginning to work. But only time will tell... see you back here with joeysteele for the post-match analysis next year.

[GiRTh]

UKIP have no policies. Surely they cannot stand the rigors and scrutiny that come with a General election. I shudder to think what their official election manifesto will be like.

I think its a sorry state of affairs that we even talk about them being contenders but I suppose it highlights the discontent with the current three party system.

[joeysteele]

I think standard indicators are likely to be more than slightly off for the next general election to be honest - I think there stands to be an unusually large number of people at the polling stations who usually don't bother to vote at all. There specifically to vote "anti-Tory", or in other words mostly Labour (for lack of alternatives).

A year is a long time in politics but I don't think it's anywhere near long enough. The Tories would need not only to see an unprecedented upswing in the economy, but also a leap in both living standards and for a HUGE number of real (full time, contracted) jobs to suddenly become available.

I personally think it's highly unlikely that any economic recovery will trickle down to the average voter at any time before the next general election. It'll stay firmly in the pockets of a relative few.

I agree with all you say, this is becoming a habit.:hugesmile:

I am finding people who don't usually vote and indeed other floating voters who will be voting Labour, not for a great love of Labour but because they want this coalition Govt well and truly out.

In all fact, the Conservatives could only attract 36+% in 2010, in the easiest election there should ever have been to get a working overall majority.
In fact the Conservatives have not registered over 37% in any general election for 22 years now.
So even holding much of the support they got in 2010 will not see them come anywhere near to even being the largest party let alone win outright.

I feel the voters are massively disillusioned with coalition Govt already and in order to not risk another will hand their votes to Labour as the only real current opposition nationally.
For 3 years or more now, Labour has consistently been in the upper 30s as to percentage of voting intention while the Conservatives have been in the lower 30s.
The Lib Dems still struggling to get any support back really at all too.

I just cannot see that position changing enough and all that points to is a majority Labour Govt in 2015.

[Livia]

UKIP have no policies. Surely they cannot stand the rigors and scrutiny that come with a General election. I shudder to think what their official election manifesto will be like.

I think its a sorry state of affairs that we even talk about them being contenders but I suppose it highlights the discontent with the current three party system.

UKIP is a party of soundbites and those soundbites are very attractive to some people who would probably never look at a manifesto. But they will probably see Farage on the news and hear him make a couple of points that they agree with: immigration and Europe mainly, two of the hottest national topics on the doorstep I understand.

[GiRTh]

UKIP is a party of soundbites and those soundbites are very attractive to some people who would probably never look at a manifesto. But they will probably see Farage on the news and hear him make a couple of points that they agree with: immigration and Europe mainly, two of the hottest national topics on the doorstep I understand.Imigration and Europe are the only policies they ever talk about. Surely the serious news press - Paxman, Adam Boulton etc will destroy Farage in a one to one interview on policies.

[Livia]

Imigration and Europe are the only policies they ever talk about. Surely the serious news press - Paxman, Adam Boulton etc will destroy Farage in a one to one interview on policies.

Immigration and Europe is all they need for the Euros. By the general election some professionals will have put their ducks into some semblance of a row. Maybe they'll blow themselves out at the Euros, we can only hope.

[GiRTh]

Immigration and Europe is all they need for the Euros. By the general election some professionals will have put their ducks into some semblance of a row. Maybe they'll blow themselves out at the Euros, we can only hope.You're depressing me.

[Livia]

You're depressing me.

On the bright side, I might be way off the mark. It's been known.

[Vicky.]

I honestly don't know where I stand on the EU tbh..

I can see benefits and downfalls.

And I dont see why we even bother when we don't even take the help we can get from being part of it? The recent floods being an example..apparently there was some kind of fund we could get he from, which never got applied for :shrug:

[user104658]

I don't agree. I worked for the Tories until December and I have to say, their confidence grew significantly in the couple of months before I left. Like you say, a year is a long time, but the campaigns have started already. That's not to say that I support them, but I do think they're working hard to win back their core voters and I think it's beginning to work. But only time will tell... see you back here with joeysteele for the post-match analysis next year.

The Tories couldn't even achieve an overall majority (causing them to form the most laughable coalition government conceivable) at the last General Election when they not only had core voters, but had also managed to sway some less politically aware members of the traditionally Labour population, who they swiftly flipped over and buggered mercilessly as soon as they were in power.

Those people will not vote for them again.

And on top of that, people who didn't vote at all in the last election but are feeling the effects of Tory policies the most over the last few years will (surely, one would think) be out in force as soon as they get the chance.

I simply can't picture a scenario where the Tories, who only managed to cobble together a frankengovernment last time around on the back of both "standard" Tory faithful AND gullible sheeple who were swayed by their campaign rhetoric, could feasibly achieve any sort of majority this time around.

Of course, I suppose there's always the nightmare scenario; ToryKIP. But then, almost every poll has shown that UKIP vote increases correlate with Tory decreases. UKIP votes are almost all ex-Tory votes.

[GiRTh]

On the bright side, I might be way off the mark. It's been known.I just hope they need too much preparation and screw up somewhere down the line. a la Katie Couric v Sarah Palin. It depresses me that UKIP are effectively going to bluff their way thru with no real policies than their obvious pandering over immigration and Europe. I just hope the hard news journalists expose them for the fraud they really are.

[Livia]

The Tories couldn't even achieve an overall majority (causing them to cause the most laughable coalition government conceivable) at the last General Election when they not only had core voters, but had also managed to sway some less politically aware members of the traditionally Labour population, who they swiftly flipped over and buggered mercilessly as soon as they were in power.

Those people will not vote for them again.

And on top of that, people who didn't vote at all in the last election but are feeling the effects of Tory policies the most over the last few years will (surely, one would think) be out in force as soon as they get the chance.

I simply can't picture a scenario where the Tories, who only managed to cobble together a frankengovernment last time around on the back of both "standard" Tory faithful AND gullible sheeple who were swayed by their campaign rhetoric, could feasibly achieve any sort of majority this time around.

Of course, I suppose there's always the nightmare scenario; ToryKIP. But then, almost every poll has shown that UKIP vote increases correlate with Tory decreases. UKIP votes are almost all ex-Tory votes.


Well, like I said, we'll see.

[Kizzy]

I'm deadly serious. There's more than a year to go till the general election. The economy is recovering, unemployment is down, they're the only party to promise a referendum on Europe, the aliented party faithful are starting to return... meanwhile Ed Miliband continues to be a great asset to the Tories.

I don't think it's questionable that UKIP will take third palce from the LibDems. Let's see what happens at the Euro election in May. That's going to be very telling for all the parties.

Massaged stats do not mean employment is down, jobseekers on sanctions, on unpaid work placements and ESA claimants currently awaiting tribunals are not added to the list of unemployed.

'A total of 141,000 people were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count Work Programme (etc.) participants as ‘in employment’ by default'
http://www.cesi.org.uk/statistics/labour/february-2014

[Livia]

Massaged stats do not mean employment is down, jobseekers on sanctions, on unpaid work placements and ESA claimants currently awaiting tribunals are not added to the list of unemployed.

'A total of 141,000 people were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count Work Programme (etc.) participants as ‘in employment’ by default'
http://www.cesi.org.uk/statistics/labour/february-2014

Yes, I know all that. I'm not waving a flag for any party here, nor am I denying the points you've made. But your average voter won't base their vote on that stuff, they'll base it on what's important to them and theirs and there will be very few Tories in the groups you've described.

[Kizzy]

Oh yes you only have to mention immigration to get all the tory ducks going quackers like katie Hopkins on acid..... The EU is about more than that and trade, work rights and justice being the biggies for me.
What the tories want is for middle England to press the self destruct button... and these 'educated' ignorami might just do it too...... pffft!

[Kizzy]

Yes, I know all that. I'm not waving a flag for any party here, nor am I denying the points you've made. But your average voter won't base their vote on that stuff, they'll base it on what's important to them and theirs and there will be very few Tories in the groups you've described.

No they won't you're right, they'll look at those employment figures and think 'ooh arn't they good getting those dole wallers off their keister and off to work', not realising those figures are a gross misrepresentation and not worth the paper they're printed on just more fabrications by the shysters that be..

[Livia]

Oh yes you only have to mention immigration to get all the tory ducks going quackers like katie Hopkins on acid..... The EU is about more than that and trade, work rights and justice being the biggies for me.
What the tories want is for middle England to press the self destruct button... and these 'educated' ignorami might just do it too...... pffft!

All the rhetoric in the world isn't going to change the fact that people vote for those who stand for what they believe in themselves and by whom they think they'll get screwed the least. And the 'uneducated' ignorami will just stay at home on polling day like they always do.

[Livia]

No they won't you're right, they'll look at those employment figures and think 'ooh arn't they good getting those dole wallers off their keister and off to work', not realising those figures are a gross misrepresentation and not worth the paper they're printed on just more fabrications by the shysters that be..

Then it's the job of the other parties to bring that to the voters' attention, and not get side-tracked, like they usually do on all sides, by petty squabbling, point-scoring and mud slinging.

[Kizzy]

All the rhetoric in the world isn't going to change the fact that people vote for those who stand for what they believe in themselves and by whom they think they'll get screwed the least. And the 'uneducated' ignorami will just stay at home on polling day like they always do.

But that's all they have is rhetoric, the conservatives have been rolling out the same stock phrases for 40-50 years!
They latch onto the island mentality and give a nice pink tinge to the idea of being out of the EU, the reality will be less rights for everyone.

'A principal target for the prime minister in his speech on Europe will be to wrench the UK away from the social and employment policies of the EU. Millions of people in Britain will suffer if he is successful. He must not be.'

'Cameron's manoeuvre is unworthy and mean-spirited. EU employment rights, like the EU itself – even with all its flaws – deserve the determined support of British working people. They're a cause worth fighting for. His vision of a UK without significant protections for employees, and competing not on quality but on cheapness and vulnerability, would be a disaster.'

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/22/cameron-europe-speech-workers-rights

[Kizzy]

Then it's the job of the other parties to bring that to the voters' attention, and not get side-tracked, like they usually do on all sides, by petty squabbling, point-scoring and mud slinging.

So what it comes down to is the barnum effect, creating a saachi 3 ring circus to parade these grey clad clowns?
It's nothing to do with policies, just who can keep their manic grin painted on for the longest time whilst controlling what spin the plebs get fed with their morning bowl of chemicals?

[smeagol]

it doesn't really matter what the torries say they will be out on there asses come election day. all i hear is yabba yabba yabba.

[GiRTh]

So what it comes down to is the barnum effect, creating a saachi 3 ring circus to parade these grey clad clowns?
It's nothing to do with policies, just who can keep their manic grin painted on for the longest time whilst controlling what spin the plebs get fed with their morning bowl of chemicals?I dont agree and I cite the Katie Couric V Sarah Palin interview as an example. It was clear from that interview that Palin knew little about so many vital areas of government. Consequently the hard news Journalists could not take her seriously - and openly took the p*ss out of her - and she had to resort to a series of 'soft ball' interviews that were obviously highly controlled and designed to make her look good. It eventually filtered down to the public and The GOP had absolutely no chance in 2008 with Obama romping to victory. I dont think the public are as dumb as politicians think and if a candidate is not suitable for government - and I feel no UKIP candidate is suitable - it will be obvious to even our untrained eyes.

[Kizzy]

"No, but the way it was all based on how you looked was the same as with Ed. It's how you look – ginger, Welsh, blatant references all the time – 'How could you possibly consider having a prime minister who grew up in a prefab?' They would use those kinds of justifications for then saying Neil was an unlikely prime minister, and they do the same with Ed. They can't say he's not extremely intelligent, but they do imply a lot about his looks all the time.'
I ask if they think David Miliband would have suffered the same sort of personal attack, but Neil shakes his head. "The difference between David and Ed, so far as these newspapers are concerned, is that they decided David was going to win, so he was their candidate, and they hate being wrong. The whole herd – with some very laudable exceptions – just hate being wrong. And one of the reasons for the antagonism towards Ed, from day one, was the fact that he beat their candidate. I'm not saying David was 'their' candidate in any strong political sense, but they had decided that that's what the Labour party would do. They were wise, they were knowing, they had insights and they concluded it was going to be David. So he was their adopted candidate – and he was defeated. So they decided to scrag Ed right from the start."

To punish him for proving them wrong? "Yes, and then to prove themselves right that what they regarded to be inadequacies were actually dominant features. Now this could sound like paranoia – but it's not. Because the reality is, the man is very calm, very courageous, he's highly intelligent, he's got imagination as well as classical intelligence, and he keeps on producing insights which are scorned for a week and then they become part of the political vocabulary six months later – squeezed middle, responsible capitalism, one nation. He's proving them wrong all the time, and they don't like his courage." Glenys nods, "They prefer the banality of saying 'Red Ed'.



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/04/neil-kinnock-interview-ed-miliband

[GiRTh]

I agree with Kinnock. He's been talking alot of sense for years. Shame no one took him seriously when he was labour leader.

However, I rely on the hard news journalists for their ability to dig deep into the candidates knowledge of all issues of government. I cant wait to hear what Farage has to say about China or the middle east or the state f the economy to get a sense of his perspective and how his policies will differ from the three parties. I hope - and pray - they expose his lack of knowledge and experience and show him for the bluffer he really is.

[arista]

I honestly don't know where I stand on the EU tbh..

I can see benefits and downfalls.

And I dont see why we even bother when we don't even take the help we can get from being part of it? The recent floods being an example..apparently there was some kind of fund we could get he from, which never got applied for :shrug:



Yes thats why Clegg Vs Farage Live 7PM
BBC2 will be good.

http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=246927

[joeysteele]

Yes thats why Clegg Vs Farage Live 7PM
BBC2 will be good.

http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=246927

I am really looking forward to that debate arista, although I don't want UKIP to do well in the EURO elctions or the general election,as I have said before all I can see is Nigel Farage running rings round Nick Clegg.

This EU is Nick Cleggs territory but he is too strong in favour of it to appeal to most voters as to it,even about 14% of his voters last time have left the Lib Dems, and I think he will get into difficulties.

For me, Nick Clegg has given UKIP and Nigel Farage a massive boost with challenging him to this debate.
Not a wise or good move in my view.

[Kizzy]

In all seriousness why are these two given such a platform prior to the election? if farage throws out his soundbites it could unfairly influence those who are leaning towards UKIP? lib dems views are not labours, and everyone is well aware of the conservative perspective as they have the Mail to voice it regularly.

[arista]

In all seriousness why are these two given such a platform prior to the election? if farage throws out his soundbites it could unfairly influence those who are leaning towards UKIP? lib dems views are not labours, and everyone is well aware of the conservative perspective as they have the Mail to voice it regularly.


Because the BBC whats viewers
for this live Event.


Both have been on LBC

Infact the first one is on LBC radio online



[The Deputy Prime Minister will debate the
UKIP leader in a radio debate on LBC
on March 26 and live televised
debate chaired by David Dimbleby on BBC 2 on April 2. ]

[Kizzy]

So where are labour in these debates?

[joeysteele]

In all seriousness why are these two given such a platform prior to the election? if farage throws out his soundbites it could unfairly influence those who are leaning towards UKIP? lib dems views are not labours, and everyone is well aware of the conservative perspective as they have the Mail to voice it regularly.

I don't think this debate will matter a great deal really Kizzy, for me the way I see it is there will be no referendum as to the EU from any party and all the party leaders know that too.

Firstly, UKIP will never in my opinion get to 23% in the polls where they would need to be just to even pick up likely 3 or 4 seats max.
The Lib Dems will nver back a referendum vote as to the EU unless they were sure it would result in an 'IN' vote.

Ed Miliband has ensured he would not have to have a referendum as in reality it is doubful at this time that the EU would embark on any new treaties that involved power transfers from Countries,so he is covered.

David Cameron is well aware I believe that he will never get to the 39/40% level in the polls and have Labour on less than 34% that would even just give him a bare overall majority.
All this hot air as to Europe and the referendum is a desperate attempt to possibly manage to come out again as the largest party in the 2015 election.
Again in that event, no referendum, as he says he will 'only' re-negotiate and hold a referendum if he gets an overall majority.

So no referendum at all from any party in the next parliament is in my view even probable,they all have their get out clauses in place now anyway as to same.

Europe at the heart of election campaigns don't bode well for the ones going on about it.
I have been reading up on the 2001 election again, daft William Hague made that all about saving the pound, he went on an on about it apparantly,stating Labour would join the Euro and the pound would be gone.
The last week was full of 5 days to save the pound, 4 days to save the pound etc;.

he went down to almost as big a defeat as John Major had 4 years before that in 1997,adding barely 1% to his total votes cast for the Conservatives.

Labour lost votes to the Lib Dems in the 2005 election, they have clawed back at least 6 or 7% of that again and that is why they are solidly in the upper 30s of percentages of voting intention.
In 13 years the Conservatives in fact only rose from around 31% in 1997 to just over 36% in 2010.

I cannot see any way they will exceed that figure and even if they and Labour were on 35 or 36% each, that would result in a likely majority Labour Govt when you consider Sinn Fein don't take their seats at Westminster and the SDLP in Northern Ireland would back the Labour party in parliament.

So this debate between Clegg and Farage wll be an interesting sideshow that will in the end have no lasting impact whatsoever, in my opinion.
I repeat again,I do not for one minute believe any party leader either wants to have or will indeed have,(despite all the hot and in my view wasted air from David Cameron and co), any referendum on EU membership in the next parliament.

[Nedusa]

I don't think this debate will matter a great deal really Kizzy, for me the way I see it is there will be no referendum as to the EU from any party and all the party leaders know that too.

Firstly, UKIP will never in my opinion get to 23% in the polls where they would need to be just to even pick up likely 3 or 4 seats max.
The Lib Dems will nver back a referendum vote as to the EU unless they were sure it would result in an 'IN' vote.

Ed Miliband has ensured he would not have to have a referendum as in reality it is doubful at this time that the EU would embark on any new treaties that involved power transfers from Countries,so he is covered.

David Cameron is well aware I believe that he will never get to the 39/40% level in the polls and have Labour on less than 34% that would even just give him a bare overall majority.
All this hot air as to Europe and the referendum is a desperate attempt to possibly manage to come out again as the largest party in the 2015 election.
Again in that event, no referendum, as he says he will 'only' re-negotiate and hold a referendum if he gets an overall majority.

So no referendum at all from any party in the next parliament is in my view even probable,they all have their get out clauses in place now anyway as to same.

Europe at the heart of election campaigns don't bode well for the ones going on about it.
I have been reading up on the 2001 election again, daft William Hague made that all about saving the pound, he went on an on about it apparantly,stating Labour would join the Euro and the pound would be gone.
The last week was full of 5 days to save the pound, 4 days to save the pound etc;.

he went down to almost as big a defeat as John Major had 4 years before that in 1997,adding barely 1% to his total votes cast for the Conservatives.

Labour lost votes to the Lib Dems in the 2005 election, they have clawed back at least 6 or 7% of that again and that is why they are solidly in the upper 30s of percentages of voting intention.
In 13 years the Conservatives in fact only rose from around 31% in 1997 to just over 36% in 2010.

I cannot see any way they will exceed that figure and even if they and Labour were on 35 or 36% each, that would result in a likely majority Labour Govt when you consider Sinn Fein don't take their seats at Westminster and the SDLP in Northern Ireland would back the Labour party in parliament.

So this debate between Clegg and Farage wll be an interesting sideshow that will in the end have no lasting impact whatsoever, in my opinion.
I repeat again,I do not for one minute believe any party leader either wants to have or will indeed have,(despite all the hot and in my view wasted air from David Cameron and co), any referendum on EU membership in the next parliament.

Good points raised there Joey, I tend to agree with your closing comment that No Govt will actually give the GBP an In/out Referendum to decide our future in the EU.

It is such a complicated subject in fact I doubt even the experts could agree on whether the UK is better or worse off in the long run by staying in the EU.

I think the prevailing political view is that the UK is currently stronger being part of it, a view Ed Miliband seems to share.

So until it becomes patently obvious to all interested parties ie Govt, Corporate Business etc.. that staying in the EU is damaging Britain I think in the EU we will stay and all talk of referendums will remain just that..ie all talk

[joeysteele]

Good points raised there Joey, I tend to agree with your closing comment that No Govt will actually give the GBP an In/out Referendum to decide our future in the EU.

It is such a complicated subject in fact I doubt even the experts could agree on whether the UK is better or worse off in the long run by staying in the EU.

I think the prevailing political view is that the UK is currently stronger being part of it, a view Ed Miliband seems to share.

So until it becomes patently obvious to all interested parties ie Govt, Corporate Business etc.. that staying in the EU is damaging Britain I think in the EU we will stay and all talk of referendums will remain just that..ie all talk

Absolutely, I agree with all you say above Nedusa.

[Livia]

But that's all they have is rhetoric, the conservatives have been rolling out the same stock phrases for 40-50 years!
They latch onto the island mentality and give a nice pink tinge to the idea of being out of the EU, the reality will be less rights for everyone.

'A principal target for the prime minister in his speech on Europe will be to wrench the UK away from the social and employment policies of the EU. Millions of people in Britain will suffer if he is successful. He must not be.'

'Cameron's manoeuvre is unworthy and mean-spirited. EU employment rights, like the EU itself – even with all its flaws – deserve the determined support of British working people. They're a cause worth fighting for. His vision of a UK without significant protections for employees, and competing not on quality but on cheapness and vulnerability, would be a disaster.'

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/22/cameron-europe-speech-workers-rights

So what it comes down to is the barnum effect, creating a saachi 3 ring circus to parade these grey clad clowns?
It's nothing to do with policies, just who can keep their manic grin painted on for the longest time whilst controlling what spin the plebs get fed with their morning bowl of chemicals?

When I referred to rhetoric, I meant yours, not the Tories'.

A link to the Guardian which is critical of the Tories and which cements your own opinion is about as unbiased as me giving you a link to the Daily Mail.

You'd think that it was only the Tories who use large advertising and PR agencies to get their message across to the "plebs". It isn't. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make in your second post there. Is it that people - except you of course - are too stupid to interpret information? Do you think everyone - except you of course - swallows everything the parties feed them? I'm not even sure where you were going with the "morning bowl of chemicals" thing.

Anyway, I've given my opinion. You don't have to like it, I'm not sue that I like it... but it's how I see it.

[joeysteele]

Sorry for this one, however it made me smile.

A lady I was chatting to today who is 75 years old, asked me if I could tell her if Milibands speech the other day meant that if he won he would not hold a vote as to Europe,had she got that right.

I said yes she had heard it right and did that bother her.

Her reply was ''Oh thank god for that, he gets my vote because I am sick of hearing about it and haven't a clue as to how I would vote in one anyway''.

[Jack_]

Great news, I certainly don't want an EU referendum that will be dictated by an overwhelmingly right-wing and anti-Europe press

[joeysteele]

Great news, I certainly don't want an EU referendum that will be dictated by an overwhelmingly right-wing and anti-Europe press

Totally agree Jack, that is the problem,the media would not in any way present a balanced and fair assessment of the argument as to the EU.

It is also one of the strong reasons why I certainly don't want one.

[Livia]

Great news, I certainly don't want an EU referendum that will be dictated by an overwhelmingly right-wing and anti-Europe press

Not giving people a chance to choose for themselves is hardly democratic though, is it. Politicians are supposed to represent their constituents' interests, and most people, whatever their political persuasion can differentiate spin from facts. Everyone should be given the opportunity to choose and let's see what the population thinks is best for the country as a whole.

Hope you had a nice Birthday, Jack.

[Vicky.]

The problem I see with a referendum (besides not knowing how I would even vote :laugh: ) is that I think people who think 'grrr immigrants taking our jobs' and such would be much more likely to go and vote than people who don't really care much either way, or even those who would rather stay. The rags have done a fantastic job of whipping people into a frenzy about immigration...

Immigration and how much it costs us to stay in the EU seem to be all anyone talks about. They don't talk about the perks, such as loads more rights for workers and stuff.

[Jack_]

Not giving people a chance to choose for themselves is hardly democratic though, is it. Politicians are supposed to represent their constituents' interests, and most people, whatever their political persuasion can differentiate spin from facts. Everyone should be given the opportunity to choose and let's see what the population thinks is best for the country as a whole.

Hope you had a nice Birthday, Jack.

When you have such a misrepresentative and persuasive media, especially on certain issues, like we have in the UK then trusting the electorate with a referendum on a very important issue is not an risk worth taking, IMO. Of course I agree that people should be able to choose for themselves, and in fact I've always thought more referendums would only make politics more democratic and would engage those who feel disenfranchised - but it's an unfortunate truth, there are a lot of people in this country whose opinions are formed through the Mail, Express, The Sun and Murdoch's empire, and I don't want a decision on whether we should stay or leave the EU to be dictated by a biased and misleading press. That isn't good for the electorate at all. Maybe one day we'll be able to have an open and fair debate where all sides, pros and cons are presented - but that doesn't look possible any time soon. It's a media problem, not a political one.

Thank you, I had a great day!

[Livia]

The problem I see with a referendum (besides not knowing how I would even vote :laugh: ) is that I think people who think 'grrr immigrants taking our jobs' and such would be much more likely to go and vote than people who don't really care much either way, or even those who would rather stay. The rags have done a fantastic job of whipping people into a frenzy about immigration...

Immigration and how much it costs us to stay in the EU seem to be all anyone talks about. They don't talk about the perks, such as loads more rights for workers and stuff.

I think it's the job of the pro-Europe lobby to get the facts out about the question of open borders. It's the job of both lobbies to give people the information they need, and I really do believe it's something that people will think seriously about because it's such an important question. But I do think people have a right to choose. People haven't been asked about this since we joined Europe, and it's a very different animal now to what it was then.

[MTVN]

I think that if there had been a referendum pre-2007 you'd have a strong majority wanting to stay in and most the media supporting staying in as well, if the majority of the press is now anti-EU it's with pretty good reason considering how much their credibility has been destroyed in the Eurozone crisis. In the same way there used to be reasonably strong support for the UK to adopt the euro but even the biggest Europhile would be reluctant to express that view now because it's generally accepted the last few years have proven them wrong and they've lost the argument

I still think a majority would vote to remain in the EU because you'd have all three main parties campaigning for it and ultimately people would consider it safer to remain involved and able to exert our influence in how it's run. But there are perfectly valid arguments for leaving that too often get presented as right wing propaganda and scaremongering

[Livia]

Great post MTVN, agree with all of that.

[Vicky.]

I think it's the job of the pro-Europe lobby to get the facts out about the question of open borders. It's the job of both lobbies to give people the information they need, and I really do believe it's something that people will think seriously about because it's such an important question. But I do think people have a right to choose. People haven't been asked about this since we joined Europe, and it's a very different animal now to what it was then.

I definitely agree with that.

Its harder to get a positive message out there though, because unfortunately stories about how the EU actually helps us are unlikely to sell as many papers or raise as much interest as a headline about Ajan Aboogala who arrived here a month ago, was given a 20 bed mansion on arrival and now claims £1267 per week in benefits for himself and his 62 children who live back in Slovakia or something D:

[Kizzy]

When I referred to rhetoric, I meant yours, not the Tories'.

A link to the Guardian which is critical of the Tories and which cements your own opinion is about as unbiased as me giving you a link to the Daily Mail.

You'd think that it was only the Tories who use large advertising and PR agencies to get their message across to the "plebs". It isn't. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make in your second post there. Is it that people - except you of course - are too stupid to interpret information? Do you think everyone - except you of course - swallows everything the parties feed them? I'm not even sure where you were going with the "morning bowl of chemicals" thing.

Anyway, I've given my opinion. You don't have to like it, I'm not sue that I like it... but it's how I see it.

I don't have rhetoric I'm not a politician... I do however have an opinion. It was a link to David Camerons view of the EU, to reiterate my point about rights... but hey.
I do think a lot of people are swallowing the idea of opt out as they are perhaps focussing too intently on the immigration issue? Meanwhile all the worthwhile EU policies relating to rights and justice are not held up for as intense a debate... I feel they should be as big a priority but my guess is UKIP won't lead with those.
I said morning bowl of 'chemicals' instead of 'cornflakes', It's my attempt at humour :grin2:

[joeysteele]

When you have such a misrepresentative and persuasive media, especially on certain issues, like we have in the UK then trusting the electorate with a referendum on a very important issue is not an risk worth taking, IMO. Of course I agree that people should be able to choose for themselves, and in fact I've always thought more referendums would only make politics more democratic and would engage those who feel disenfranchised - but it's an unfortunate truth, there are a lot of people in this country whose opinions are formed through the Mail, Express, The Sun and Murdoch's empire, and I don't want a decision on whether we should stay or leave the EU to be dictated by a biased and misleading press. That isn't good for the electorate at all. Maybe one day we'll be able to have an open and fair debate where all sides, pros and cons are presented - but that doesn't look possible any time soon. It's a media problem, not a political one.Thank you, I had a great day!

That is a great post Jack and all the valid reasons for not having a referendum in the next few years too,well said.

Whenever a referendum is held,if one ever is, then it should be held on the same day as a general election to get the biggest turnout possible rather than outside of a general election.

However, I say there will be no referendum in the next parliament unless,(and this is one of the biggest ever 'ifs' in politics in my view),the Conservatives got at least an 80+ overall majority.

Although were that awful scenario to happen, all powers that be will be needed to help the weak, poor, sick,disabled and most vulnerable with this really nasty, heartless bunch of Ministers there are at present in Govt.

Thankfully it won't happen,I am sure of that.