[arista]

Labour Confirmed today the does not trust the British
Public to Vote on Europe.


Only with the Conservatives
do you get a In Or Out of Europe



[Miliband rules out an EU referendum to
protect Labour's 'only policy which businesses like' ]

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz2vkjMP7va

http://news.sky.com/story/1224347/ed...erendum-pledge

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...erendum-choice

[joeysteele]

Not a question of trust for me but I don't think a great many of the voters themselves think they can make a well informed decision as to how to vote as to the EU and I also believe they would never get a fair balanced argument presented by the media either.

I myself would vote in any referendum to stay in and I also believe probably most of the UK 'thinks' we would be better in the EU but know very little as to it and would need likely more than 10 years to cover all the arguments for and against to make a firm decision.

For instance, I have discussed this today with 20 people,small number I agree as we watched Ed Miliband's speech.
10 simply said they know too little to say what their view is and would not bother to vote in any referendum.
6 said they would likely vote to stay in, 4 said they would vote to leave.
However, of the 4 who'd leave, they would all go and vote in a referendum.
Of the 6 who prefer staying only 3 would likely go and vote, especially in a referendum held outside of a general election date.

The person I don't trust as to this is actually David Cameron nor ever would I on this issue.
He cannot yet set a firm date for a referendum, that would need to be likely approved by Parliament nearer the time, all depending on how long his negotiations, (whatever they even are), take too.
He would need an overall majority of at least likely 75 to 80, since at least a fifth of his party who lean to the EU would not risk holding a refererendum that looked like being lost.
So I can see him saying, he hasn't the commons arithmetic to get a referendum final date bill through.

For me,Ed Milibands plan is actually a good compromise, if any new treaties come up that involve the loss of powers from the UK to the EU, that will trigger an in/out referendum.
As he said,a simple treaty referendum of yes or no, doesn't work, where in other Countries holding such treaty only referenda have just been asked again until they agreed.
His plan also leaves the EU with the knowledge that any further treaty changes would set off an in out referendum in the UK.

The Conservative party has never delivered any referendum promise as to the EU before, they even took the UK into the Common Market in 1973, as it was then, without asking the Voters in a referendum then either.
It was Harold Wilson's Labour govt that did new negotiations of the entry terms and then delivered a referendum of in or out in 1975.

What is the point of wasting money on holding a referendum, that is likely to get a low turnout when these conditions as to future treaties are in place now.
I for one, don't want to risk stepping into the unknown by sleepwalking out of the EU,I prefer myself to stay there now that we are in.
Especially with these new safeguards that this Govt has put in place and then Ed Miliband's would add to with his new policy.

Ed Miliband's policy makes perfect sense to me, and I think over time it it will to those who feel they likely could never make their minds up really as to the good and bad of the EU.
It is a policy that may even bring relief too to some of those very undecided voters.

[Livia]

Ed Miliband has been a huge weapon in the Conservatives' armoury ever since he shafted his own brother to get the job. I think this has probably handed the next general election, if not to the Tories, then to UKIP.

[Livia]

I don't think there would be a low turnout for an 'in/out' referendum, joey. Quite the reverse. I think people would turn out in their droves to vote 'out'. We do more trade with the USA than we do with the EU and we don't have to pay an extortionate amount of cash to do it. I think lots of people are tired of having decisions made for the people of this country by a completely unelected body not even on these shores.

For a while I wasn't sure where I stood on the Europe question. I know where I stand now, and it would be an 'out' vote for me.

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Livia

Ed Miliband has been a huge weapon in the Conservatives' armoury ever since he shafted his own brother to get the job. I think this has probably handed the next general election, if not to the Tories, then to UKIP.

I'm going to have to assume you're not serious here. For one, I think you're majorly underestimating the current unpopularity of the Tories...

And secondly, UKIP? It's still questionable that they'll take 3rd place from the Lib Dems, and thats with the Lib Dems in tatters...

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Livia

Ed Miliband has been a huge weapon in the Conservatives' armoury ever since he shafted his own brother to get the job. I think this has probably handed the next general election, if not to the Tories, then to UKIP.

In truth, only UKIP is the party for those against the EU and who really want to leave to go to.
No way do the Conservatives really want to leave the EU,they are a responsible party,which is why I see if they got a small overall majority that we would get the.'We haven't got the numbers to get the referendum date through parliament' argument likely.

If they don't get an overall majority then we don't get a referendum from them either anyway.

No one even has any idea at all as to what David Cameron wants to negotiate on,in fact he should have done this these last 2 years instead of talking about it and then in a much stronger position be able to say at the General election when any referendum could have been held.

The procrastination is for me, just to buy time and possibly an election win,however he has a problem, he has made promises on a few things that he has broken.
A good number of people don't believe him as to this either.
He isn't just asking for a blank cheque as to this issue,he is asking for a whole book of them

UKIP will atract votes but they ned to get to 22%/23% in the polls before they even get to likely win a handful of seats.

I just think a great number of people are totally confused by the EU and switch off when it comes up.
I would expect the dismal turnout too, that was there for the AV referendum, happening for any EU referendum held outside of a general election date.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Livia

I don't think there would be a low turnout for an 'in/out' referendum, joey. Quite the reverse. I think people would turn out in their droves to vote 'out'. We do more trade with the USA than we do with the EU and we don't have to pay an extortionate amount of cash to do it. I think lots of people are tired of having decisions made for the people of this country by a completely unelected body not even on these shores.

For a while I wasn't sure where I stood on the Europe question. I know where I stand now, and it would be an 'out' vote for me.

Outside of a general election date, I would say the biggest turnout would come from those wanting to leave.
I myself would never vote to leave the EU because in fact the USA itself wouldn't want us to either.
I think we would create massive difficulties for ourselves if we did.
We either are a leading Nation fo the World or a bit player and I don't want the UK to be the latter.

I agree that the voters would vote in droves to come out, that however would be a disaster that in fact the majority of the UK could be in favour of staying in but the out voters carried the day.
Which is why I don't believe the referendum could be held,if that seemed likely to happen, by even a Conservative Govt.
For me, it would be the worst decision ever made by the voters of the UK if that happened,for me 100%.

The EU has its faults, no doubt, but outside it, we can influence nothing, nothing at all,that would be a massive backward step for the UK in my opinion.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

I'm going to have to assume you're not serious here. For one, I think you're majorly underestimating the current unpopularity of the Tories...

And secondly, UKIP? It's still questionable that they'll take 3rd place from the Lib Dems, and thats with the Lib Dems in tatters...

I'm deadly serious. There's more than a year to go till the general election. The economy is recovering, unemployment is down, they're the only party to promise a referendum on Europe, the aliented party faithful are starting to return... meanwhile Ed Miliband continues to be a great asset to the Tories.

I don't think it's questionable that UKIP will take third palce from the LibDems. Let's see what happens at the Euro election in May. That's going to be very telling for all the parties.

[Crimson Dynamo]

The economic cycle favours the tories. They will be able to claim the economy at the election and thats a kicker.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

Outside of a general election date, I would say the biggest turnout would come from those wanting to leave.
I myself would never vote to leave the EU because in fact the USA itself wouldn't want us to either.
I think we would create massive difficulties for ourselves if we did.
We either are a leading Nation fo the World or a bit player and I don't want the UK to be the latter.

I agree that the voters would vote in droves to come out, that however would be a disaster that in fact the majority of the UK could be in favour of staying in but the out voters carried the day.
Which is why I don't believe the referendum could be held,if that seemed likely to happen, by even a Conservative Govt.
For me, it would be the worst decision ever made by the voters of the UK if that happened,for me 100%.

The EU has its faults, no doubt, but outside it, we can influence nothing, nothing at all,that would be a massive backward step for the UK in my opinion.

I don't see what it really has to do with the USA what happens in Europe, any more than internal US affairs has anything to do with the EU.

We are a major player on the world stage, I see no reason that that might change just because we cease to be a member of the EU. Businesses that trade with us now would trade with us after.

We are not equal in Europe. We pay so much money but I don't believe we get much back. As a Brit, get a job in Germany and you will have to take out medical insurance before you take up the job. Be a German and get a job in the UK and you have free access to the NHS - a service for which we all pay through the nose - completely for free. There is no balance.

I can't see how it can be a bad thing if the majority of people vote to leave the EU. Surely that's democracy? The Labour Party is not going to give the people a chance to vote in a referendum because they know damn well what the result would be, so in my view this decision is undemocratic.

Enjoyed your posts though joey.

[MTVN]

Yep if I was a betting man I'd fancy the Tories as well, the strength of the recovery in the last few months has actually been pretty remarkable, the UK is the envy of much of Europe; countries like Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Greece, where their economies are still struggling badly. Labours only weapon against the Tories now is that living standards havent improved but an economic recovery usually precedes a living standards increase so who knows how things will look in a years time

[arista]

No Joey you are not in touch with the Older Voters
more and more demand a In or Out Vote on Europe.


Many have never had a chance

This is Special
above Student Level

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by arista

No Joey you are not in touch with the Older Voters
more and more demand a In or Out Vote on Europe.


Many have never had a chance

This is Special
above Student Level

Across the board you will find people have mixed views as to the EU.
After all,all people over 57 got to vote in the 1975 referendum.
I find in all ages those for and against.

I predict here and now that unless the Conservative party got something like an 80+ overall majority in 2015,then no way will they hold a referendum on the EU that looked to have a chance fo bringing an out result.
The pro Europe part of the Conservative party would rebel and block such a bill being enacted.
UKIP well know that too and will play on that in 2015.

No way will MPs with the thinking of Ken Clarke ever support a referendum bill on the EU that could risk the UK leaving.

I also don't think the economy improving,(although it is nowhere near where it should be and the deficit will still be far higher than this Govt said it had to be in 2015), will help the Conservatives win actually.
I see the economy improving as a likely possible handicap for the Conservatives.

Generally when things improve that is when the voters feel they can sit back and let Labour in again.
It is when times are difficult they turn from Labour to the Conservatives.
If the economy looks stronger then that may oddly enough help Labour to a bigger win in 2015.

I still say Labour will win with at least a 30 overall majority.
I cannot at all see the Conservatives getting to over 6% ahead of Labour which they have to be just to get a tiny single figure overall majority probably.

The only party guaranteed, who would in fact deliver an EU referendum, would be UKIP and where they have to get to in the polls, to really influence that with all their other daft policies, is beyond all probability for me.
Not a hope.

[Livia]

In defence of joeysteele, I have to say he's one of the most informed and thoughtful people on the forum - of any age.

[arista]

Well before May 2015
Scotland is this year Sept
Vote up there.


In just weeks Politics can change in a big way
so I do not like "guess this will happen or predict"

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by arista

Well before May 2015
Scotland is this year Sept
Vote up there.


In just weeks Politics can change in a big way
so I do not like "guess this will happen or predict"

True politics can change in weeks,Livia or yourself will be able to likely confirm who said the line ''a week is a long time in politics''.
I think it was Harold Wilson.

However I am happy to stand by my predictions,firstly, that Scotland wll vote to stay in the UK, secondly that Labour will win with at least a 30 overall majority.
Thirdly, no referendum vote at all as to the EU in the next parliament.

Whatever, when the election comes in 2015, no matter what the result,I hope you will be on here arista because I will enjoy debating with you the results as they happen.
Livia too of course and thank you for your kind words.

It was nice to be called a student by arista again, since I am now no longer one,other than a student of life and experiences that is.

[Livia]

Joey, after the general election, I'll see you on here for a post-match analysis :-)

(And you know it was Harold Wilson!)

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Livia

Joey, after the general election, I'll see you on here for a post-match analysis :-)

(And you know it was Harold Wilson!)

I have just looked it up, I wasn't 100% sure, for some reason I keep thinking it was James Callaghan.

I am fascinated by general elections,I will look forward to that Livia, no matter what the result may be.

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Livia

I'm deadly serious. There's more than a year to go till the general election. The economy is recovering, unemployment is down, they're the only party to promise a referendum on Europe, the aliented party faithful are starting to return... meanwhile Ed Miliband continues to be a great asset to the Tories.

I don't think it's questionable that UKIP will take third palce from the LibDems. Let's see what happens at the Euro election in May. That's going to be very telling for all the parties.

I think standard indicators are likely to be more than slightly off for the next general election to be honest - I think there stands to be an unusually large number of people at the polling stations who usually don't bother to vote at all. There specifically to vote "anti-Tory", or in other words mostly Labour (for lack of alternatives).

A year is a long time in politics but I don't think it's anywhere near long enough. The Tories would need not only to see an unprecedented upswing in the economy, but also a leap in both living standards and for a HUGE number of real (full time, contracted) jobs to suddenly become available.

I personally think it's highly unlikely that any economic recovery will trickle down to the average voter at any time before the next general election. It'll stay firmly in the pockets of a relative few.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

I think standard indicators are likely to be more than slightly off for the next general election to be honest - I think there stands to be an unusually large number of people at the polling stations who usually don't bother to vote at all. There specifically to vote "anti-Tory", or in other words mostly Labour (for lack of alternatives).

A year is a long time in politics but I don't think it's anywhere near long enough. The Tories would need not only to see an unprecedented upswing in the economy, but also a leap in both living standards and for a HUGE number of real (full time, contracted) jobs to suddenly become available.

I personally think it's highly unlikely that any economic recovery will trickle down to the average voter at any time before the next general election. It'll stay firmly in the pockets of a relative few.

I don't agree. I worked for the Tories until December and I have to say, their confidence grew significantly in the couple of months before I left. Like you say, a year is a long time, but the campaigns have started already. That's not to say that I support them, but I do think they're working hard to win back their core voters and I think it's beginning to work. But only time will tell... see you back here with joeysteele for the post-match analysis next year.

[GiRTh]

UKIP have no policies. Surely they cannot stand the rigors and scrutiny that come with a General election. I shudder to think what their official election manifesto will be like.

I think its a sorry state of affairs that we even talk about them being contenders but I suppose it highlights the discontent with the current three party system.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

I think standard indicators are likely to be more than slightly off for the next general election to be honest - I think there stands to be an unusually large number of people at the polling stations who usually don't bother to vote at all. There specifically to vote "anti-Tory", or in other words mostly Labour (for lack of alternatives).

A year is a long time in politics but I don't think it's anywhere near long enough. The Tories would need not only to see an unprecedented upswing in the economy, but also a leap in both living standards and for a HUGE number of real (full time, contracted) jobs to suddenly become available.

I personally think it's highly unlikely that any economic recovery will trickle down to the average voter at any time before the next general election. It'll stay firmly in the pockets of a relative few.

I agree with all you say, this is becoming a habit.

I am finding people who don't usually vote and indeed other floating voters who will be voting Labour, not for a great love of Labour but because they want this coalition Govt well and truly out.

In all fact, the Conservatives could only attract 36+% in 2010, in the easiest election there should ever have been to get a working overall majority.
In fact the Conservatives have not registered over 37% in any general election for 22 years now.
So even holding much of the support they got in 2010 will not see them come anywhere near to even being the largest party let alone win outright.

I feel the voters are massively disillusioned with coalition Govt already and in order to not risk another will hand their votes to Labour as the only real current opposition nationally.
For 3 years or more now, Labour has consistently been in the upper 30s as to percentage of voting intention while the Conservatives have been in the lower 30s.
The Lib Dems still struggling to get any support back really at all too.

I just cannot see that position changing enough and all that points to is a majority Labour Govt in 2015.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by GiRTh

UKIP have no policies. Surely they cannot stand the rigors and scrutiny that come with a General election. I shudder to think what their official election manifesto will be like.

I think its a sorry state of affairs that we even talk about them being contenders but I suppose it highlights the discontent with the current three party system.

UKIP is a party of soundbites and those soundbites are very attractive to some people who would probably never look at a manifesto. But they will probably see Farage on the news and hear him make a couple of points that they agree with: immigration and Europe mainly, two of the hottest national topics on the doorstep I understand.

[GiRTh]

Originally Posted by Livia

UKIP is a party of soundbites and those soundbites are very attractive to some people who would probably never look at a manifesto. But they will probably see Farage on the news and hear him make a couple of points that they agree with: immigration and Europe mainly, two of the hottest national topics on the doorstep I understand.

Imigration and Europe are the only policies they ever talk about. Surely the serious news press - Paxman, Adam Boulton etc will destroy Farage in a one to one interview on policies.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by GiRTh

Imigration and Europe are the only policies they ever talk about. Surely the serious news press - Paxman, Adam Boulton etc will destroy Farage in a one to one interview on policies.

Immigration and Europe is all they need for the Euros. By the general election some professionals will have put their ducks into some semblance of a row. Maybe they'll blow themselves out at the Euros, we can only hope.