What everyone who's ever supported a housemate in Big Brother needs to understand...

[James]

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (6.25%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

[chuff me dizzy]

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

Ive got to admit Im pretty good at picking the winner from early on in the series

[bots]

Can't have any of this logical talk :laugh:

[Elliot]

Don’t forget if you’re a hot male multiply the odds by like 10 and cut in half the odds for any female that dares to ever cross him

[Beastie]

Very wise James. It's nice sometimes just to enjoy the show! Like for the final I want Cameron to win. But I would still be happy if Cian wins. Okay if Zoe wins and meh if Akeem wins :laugh:

[Morgan.]

I have to disagree slightly. There are character traits that the public won't warm to, or will nevertheless vote for. Black females an example, albeit overused, but iirc the highest they've gotten is 3rd Place. So their odds of winning are statistically lower based on track record.

Then you consider when they entered. The later into the series they join, the less chance the public have to warm to them, making their odds lower.

[rusticgal]

Think Ive supported 6 winners...and several finalists

[Beastie]

Also if you are Welsh or Irish you are likely to stay in longer ;)

[Toy Soldier]

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 3/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 15/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

[edited to fix a couple of my own figures]

[Matthew.]

1/16 (0.06%)

i think you mean 6.25%

[RileyH]

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of teaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

oop

[Withano]

I also took issue with that 1 in 16 thing. Edit that immediately.

[James]

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands. :p


i think you mean 6.25%

:facepalm:

Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%

[Withano]

I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

[Matthew.]

i just checked my profile housemates and 4/29 of them are winners so i get your point

[Withano]

i just checked my profile housemates and 4/29 of them are winners so i get your point

8/41 for me

9/42 if Cameron wins

[RileyH]

I only have Helen, Rylan & Jack Dee ffs

[Matthew.]

I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

this

i just checked my profile again and with all of mine, i can point out something negative about them, or why someone might not like them

[Toy Soldier]

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands. [emoji14]




:facepalm:

Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%It is quite depressing I suppose that these things are never really equal... It would actually be quite interesting if someone put together all of the figures over the years and got some full stats on it! E.g. Is it true that Irish people last longer? Do Scottish people go sooner? Do men have a better chance than women? Does sexuality come into it? I'd guess all of these things do but I wonder what the "statistically most likely" finalist looks like :think:. I think actual WINNER involves a higher element of storylines / what happened during the series but I reckon "likely finalists" can be identified very early on. Cian, Zoe and Akeem were all really likely finalists right from the first week. Cameron not so much and needed that "story boost".

Funnily enough on first impressions, Lewis F was a very UNlikely finalist but would almost definitely have won if he hadn't been kicked... Which actually applies to a lot of "oddball" winners.

[Toy Soldier]

I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.Pobody's nerfect.

[James]

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 3/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 15/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

[edited to fix a couple of my own figures]

These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Sian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/tv/3123980/cian-carrigan-big-brother-farmer/

[Smithy]

James just pissing on everyone’s parade :laugh:

[DouglasS]

I normally do not support 1 single housemate which increases my odds, I usually have 2 favorites or so a season

Winners I have supported/been in my top 2 have been;

Nadia,
Brian Belo,
Sophie,
Josie,
Aaron,
Luke A
Isabelle

so I'm doing okay.

[y.winter]

The chances of the four of them making it to the final after surviving every public vote in which they could've gone home (inc. Cameron's decision):
Cameron and Zoe - 66%
Cian - 44%
Akeem - 7%

Akeem was lucky!

[Matthew.]

These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/tv/3123980/cian-carrigan-big-brother-farmer/

sorry ik i probably sound like i’m on a mission to point out every mistake you make but you missed out Sian, and that article had her at 9/2, same as Cian

[y.winter]

These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/tv/3123980/cian-carrigan-big-brother-farmer/

Not Sian being the obvious winner that they didn't bother putting her on the list :laugh:

[James]

Oh, Sian was 9/2 also, joint favourite.

I missed that. :umm2:

[ThriceShy]

I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.

[Cherie]

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

I dont vote apart from when BOTs was doing his campaign so I can’t really complain, dont really understand people who spend alot of money voting :conf:

[Cherie]

I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.

Agree

[ThatsMyUserName]

Also if you are Welsh or Irish you are likely to stay in longer ;)

That's why I'm still hoping Akeem can win.

[Dinah]

I dont vote apart from when BOTs was doing his campaign so I can’t really complain, dont really understand people who spend alot of money voting :conf:

:blush:I used to vote but came to my senses and stopped a long time ago.

[Ant.]

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

i think your maths is off a tad

[Ant.]

I only have Helen, Rylan & Jack Dee ffs

I only have taste :hee:

[James]

I have corrected the errors in my previous posts. :umm2:

[Ant.]

I have corrected the errors in my previous posts. :umm2:

:umm2:

[GoldHeart]

Also if you are Welsh or Irish you are likely to stay in longer ;)

It's worked for Akeem & Cian :clap1:

[hijaxers]

I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.


Yes i agree it really becomes so boring harping on about someone who never had a hope in hell of winning.

[thesheriff443]

I have corrected the errors in my previous posts. :umm2:

With this thread James you have,

gone into the enemy’s camp holding the the gun the wrong way round.

You made a pigs eat of it.

[Kazanne]

I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.

This is so true

[bots]

I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.

well, if posts werent trolling and baiting, they might have been better received. :idc:

[Cherie]

I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.

I just had a look at this thread now and any 'abuse' you got was from one person who was not a Sian fan :dance: and it wasn't even abuse he just asked you to read a book :laugh:

http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=351237&page=3

[Niamh.]

My favourites won in the earlier series (Craig, Brian, Kate) then I didn't have a winner till BB12 after that and I liked Issy from last year, Cian is in the final so that a decent result, obviously if he won it would be great but it's not likely, beating Zoe would do me :p

[MTVN]

Most people tend to support the bigger characters who are more prominent in their series though which makes them more likely to reach the final or win. Besides supporting a housemate and getting invested in their journey is part of the fun of it, I don't know how you can always watch the show without ever having a favourite James lol

[joeysteele]

Most people tend to support the bigger characters who are more prominent in their series though which makes them more likely to reach the final or win. Besides supporting a housemate and getting invested in their journey is part of the fun of it, I don't know how you can always watch the show without ever having a favourite James lol

This totally I identify with easily.

Not necessarily always re the bigger characters, often my own favourites were seen as near also rans initially.

Yes however, getting behind a housemate or housemates you come to connect with on the show, the bonding of support for them, makes sharing their time in the house.

Once you feel strong enough to support them, then really, the funds would be spent on other pleasures but it's a good feeling when you think, you have helped someone get to the finals.
You come to sort of help sponsor in part their time on the show.
IF you want to that is.

We'd have no reality shows at all or have even had BB all this time, if people hadn't or had hardly voted for their favourites over the years.