Statistical Chances of Winning

[Morgan.]

I created a formulae from previous winners to include the chances of winning based on different criteria - gender, age, nationality, race, entrance, sexuality etc. I have then calculated the finalists chance of winning, and o pared them to evicted housemates.

Zoe: 8.2%
Cameron: 6.0%
Cian: 5.4%
Akeem: 4.8%


Lewis F: 8.6%
Lewis G: 8.6%
Sîan: 8.2%
Zoe: 8.2%
Isabella: 7.8%
Isaac: 6.6%
Hussain: 6.2%
Kenaley: 6.1%
Brooke: 6.0%
Cameron: 6.0%
Cian: 5.4%
Ellis: 5.3%
Tomasz: 5.2%
Akeem: 5.0%
Anamélia: 4.8%
Kay: 4.4%


From this, Zoe statistically stands the best chance of winning on Monday, whilst Akeem has the least chance startistically.

Meanwhile Lewis F and Lewis G stood the best chances of winning statistically from the whole cast, with Kay having the least chance.

[Matthew.]

what is the formula?

[Cherie]

Gosh, that’s interesting, will probably happen

[Cherie]

what is the formula?

I was afraid to ask :hehe:

[Matthew.]

Kay having the least chance.

but we all know she would have won had she not walked

[RileyH]

Funny how Zoe's coming 4th isn't it

[Elliot]

Kenaley having higher percentage than cian and Cameron ddd cmon girl she was doomed from the first minute

[Morgan.]

what is the formula?

I was afraid to ask :hehe:

Basically, I added up the character traits of all winners (Civillian and Celeb). This is gender, sexuality, nationality, skin colour, launch entrance or late entrance and age. E.g. There's been 31 English winners, 2 Irish, 3 Welsh, no Scottish and 4 others.

I'd then go through the housemate list, and add up all of their traits. E.g. Zoe is non-LGBT (34), English (31), Female (16), 31+ (17) and White (38). That gives her 136, and I'd create a percentage using that and the total of everyone's score added together.

[Cherie]

Basically, I added up the character traits of all winners (Civillian and Celeb). This is gender, sexuality, nationality, skin colour, launch entrance or late entrance and age. E.g. There's been 31 English winners, 2 Irish, 3 Welsh, no Scottish and 4 others.

I'd then go through the housemate list, and add up all of their traits. E.g. Zoe is non-LGBT (34), English (31), Female (16), 31+ (17) and White (38). That gives her 136, and I'd create a percentage using that and the total of everyone's score added together.

Impressive

[Matthew.]

no Scottish

:fist:

[Matthew.]

Basically, I added up the character traits of all winners (Civillian and Celeb). This is gender, sexuality, nationality, skin colour, launch entrance or late entrance and age. E.g. There's been 31 English winners, 2 Irish, 3 Welsh, no Scottish and 4 others.

I'd then go through the housemate list, and add up all of their traits. E.g. Zoe is non-LGBT (34), English (31), Female (16), 31+ (17) and White (38). That gives her 136, and I'd create a percentage using that and the total of everyone's score added together.

oh wow this is actually pretty clever

bet that took ages though :laugh:

[Morgan.]

Impressive

oh wow this is actually pretty clever

bet that took ages though :laugh:

Thanks :love:

About 30/40 minutes :laugh:

And I'll add that Zoe would've been much lower in the odds if I'd just included civilian housemates. Most celebrity winners were above 30 so that helped by her chances. But because it's the same show I included both Winners.

[Underscore]

calculate my chances of winning against these bozos :D

[Headie]

Kenaley was always at 0% lets not kid ourselves!

[y.winter]

Not black female winner standing the same chance as a Scottish winner.

[DouglasS]

Where this formula fails is that they do not put in 50 percent LGBT contestants and 50 percent straight contestants. Therefore there are not going to be as many LGBT contestants as straight contestants win. Same with black contestants. I reckon in actual propotion LGBT contestants have faired better than non-LGBT tbh.

[Morgan.]

calculate my chances of winning against these bozos :D

From what I know about you, 5.8%. Above Cian and under Cameron. 11th overall.

[Morgan.]

Where this formula fails is that they do not put in 50 percent LGBT contestants and 50 percent straight contestants. Therefore there are not going to be as many LGBT contestants as straight contestants win. Same with black contestants. I reckon in actual propotion LGBT contestants have faired better than non-LGBT tbh.

That is very true, and my scraped C in GCSE maths means I have literally no idea how to make the figures proportional.

[Underscore]

From what I know about you, 5.8%. Above Cian and under Cameron. 11th overall.

oof

[Matthew.]

From what I know about you, 5.8%. Above Cian and under Cameron. 11th overall.

can you do one for me as well please? :hee:

[Northern Monkey]

Very clever :clap1:

(Although when i added all the percentages together in came out at 102.4%)

[Morgan.]

Very clever :clap1:

(Although when i added all the percentages together in came out at 102.4%)

I added up in my head so specific numbers might be 1 or 2 out - but their placing will still be roughly the same and nothing wouldn't have changed drastically.

[Morgan.]

can you do one for me as well please? :hee:

Again just a guess, but 6.6% - so equal chances to Isaac and 6th/7th overall.

[Matthew.]

Again just a guess, but 6.6% - so equal chances to Isaac and 6th/7th overall.

i’m 6th place just like legend Brooke! :flutter:

[Matthew.]

thanks!

[Vicky.]

Was BB4s Cameron not Scottish? :suspect: Positive I remember him being..

[user104658]

Was BB4s Cameron not Scottish? :suspect: Positive I remember him being..Well, yes and no, he was from the Orkney islands which are part of Scotland but... Orkney folks are really their own special sort of people. [emoji23]

[Wizard.]

Chances of Big Brother returning? Big fat 0!

[MB.]

I see you've accidentally added a decimal point into Kay's percentage

[Withano]

I thought that Cameron bb4 was scottish?

Not that it would change the results.. just thought he was!

Thats a pretty cool idea Morgan

[mr rochester]

Very impressive and interesting.

I would have calculated it at 25/1 each but I am no statistician.

Will watch with great interest now.

[Morgan.]

Was BB4s Cameron not Scottish? :suspect: Positive I remember him being..

I thought that Cameron bb4 was scottish?

Not that it would change the results.. just thought he was!

Thats a pretty cool idea Morgan

Ah apologies, BB4 is one of the few I haven't seen any of!

[user104658]

Ah apologies, BB4 is one of the few I haven't seen any of!You didn't miss much.

[Pro Sniper]

The question is how much faith do you have in this "model" ? If you have any belief in it at all you'd surely have something on the Zombie to win? Even if you're not a gambling man/women, with a risk-reward ratio of 1-20.. it would be foolish not to put some money where your mouth(model) is..

[Morgan.]

The question is how much faith do you have in this "model" ? If you have any belief in it at all you'd surely have something on the Zombie to win? Even if you're not a gambling man/women, with a risk-reward ratio of 1-20.. it would be foolish not to put some money where your mouth(model) is..

Well I can't factor in other variables. So Cameron has come out on the show and had this journey of acceptance - but no other winner has so I can't include that, but it does increase his chances.