Betting Odds

[dbh-g]

The betting odds on William Hill:

1. Sam & Amanda

2. Brian

3. Liam

4. Carole

5. Ziggy

6. Jonty


The betting odds on Paddy Power:

1. Sam & Amanda

2. Brian

3. Liam

4. Ziggy

5. Jonty

6. Carole

Which do you think is more accurate? Personally I don't think that Carole may possibly come fifth but no way fourth.

[dbh-g]

Soz meant to say i think Carole may get fifth but no way fourth.

[CassetteFinger]

Yeah she will either finish above or below ziggy.

[Terpsichore]

You can't expect win odds to mean much in the lower part of the table. No one lower than Liam has any realistic chance of winning, and the odds for Carole, Ziggy & Jonty will vary quite a lot from bookie to bookie, because they're not putting much thought into it. Basically those odds are there as bait for the occasional mug punter.

If any bookies are offering bets on "last 4" it would be a different thing. Then they'd think more carefully about the odds, and you might expect the odds on Ziggy and Carole to reflect their popularity more accurately.

Interesting to see that the number of bookies offering BB bets has halved since yesterday. Some of them have taken fright with the run of bets on the Twins. Rather than shorten the odds still further, they've just shut down.

[bananarama]

They showed some of the odds on todays BBLB. Don't know where they got the odds for the twins and Brian as they had little resemblance to the odds now showing on betting sites

[CassetteFinger]

Why what odds did they show on bblb was it odds that had them closer than they actually are.

[bananarama]

Originally posted by Rice_Square
Why what odds did they show on bblb was it odds that had them closer than they actually are.


Yes....They showed them closer They weren't in decimal but Brian was put at 2/1 If I remember correctly Which I think means £2 for every £1 bet if he won

The twins were ahead think they were 3/5

At present the typical odds are

Twins 1.44
Brian 3.25

[CassetteFinger]

They probably show the best odds brian has out of all bookies and the best odds samanda have out of all the bookies.

[Terpsichore]

I believe the odds they showed were 2/7. I think that was a mistake, and should have been 3/7. In decimal odds that comes out as 1.42, which was about right yesterday. Today, however, it's dropped still further, and is now below 1.4.

The bookies who I mentioned in my last post as shutting up shop today have now re-opened. A momentary loss of bottle on their part. Crazy times.

The warning I gave in another thread about how bookies odds can distort the true picture still holds good. Also, there are BB tricks in the pipeline whose results are unknown at present. But it isn't out of thequestion that the twins could find themselves out of the house as a result of some dirty trick on BB's part. They have broken so many of their own rules this series that I wouldn't put it past them to pull something really controversial in the hunt for more ratings. But if the twins fall victim to it, it could backfire on BB disastrously (as well as costing me a lot of money).

[CassetteFinger]

O docimal odds confuse me.

[KKBL]

the BBLB odds were from paddy power as paddy power is the officiall BB and C4 bookies!!

[CassetteFinger]

Really but on the website hes 2-1 :S

[Wiglet]

Twinies are currently 4/9, Brian 2/1, Liam 12/1 with the other three 50/1 rank outsiders with Paddy power.

Most bookies are keeping Carole, Jonty and Ziggy around 50/1 and 80/1 although I have seen one with Jonty at 66/1 and Carole and Ziggy further out at 75/1 and another with Carole and Ziggy at 50/1 and Jonty at 100/1. That particular bookie is not taking bets on Samanda anymore so must be pretty certain on a win?

Is it worth a flutter on Jonty at 100/1! :cheer2::tongue::thumbs:

[☺♥BB5♥☻&]

twin to win
ziggy to come 6th
i dont care about what happens in the middle

[bananarama]

Originally posted by Rice_Square
Really but on the website hes 2-1 :S


Paddypower have the odds

Twins 1.44
Brian 3.0

Translated for each £ if the twins win you get 44p profit
If Brian wins you get £2.0 profit

Also your originak stake of £1 back

[Wiglet]

I'm looking at Paddypower but I have it in 'old money'!

4/9 twinies and 2/1 Brian.

Banarama, how are you getting the decimal odds?

[Terpsichore]

I've just looked at the recording I made this morning of BBLB and the odds given were 4/9, which is about right.

The way to get decimal odds is to do the division and get the decimal result - 4/9= 0.44 - and then add 1. So 4/9 in decimal odds is 1.44.

The reason for the +1 is that decimal odds always shows your stake, whereas fractional odds only shows the winnings. Decimal odds shows your total return, stake plus winnings. On a £1 bet the return is £1+£0.44=£1.44

[Sticks]

In the conventional format of x to y, this means you have to put on £y to earn £x

So with the odds given for the twins (4 - 9) you have to put on £9 to win £4

With Brian, you put on £1 to win £2

[CassetteFinger]

Originally posted by ☺♥BB5♥☻&
twin to win
ziggy to come 6th
i dont care about what happens in the middle

I agree 20000000% samanda to win ziggy out first on friday wipe that smug smile of his face.

[12bigbrother12]

Twins T'win!

[Terpsichore]

Both Brian and Liam are drifting oddswise, while twins are still advancing. They've put a big gap now between themselves and the other two main contenders. The average on oddscheckers about two hours ago was 1.37 for twins, 3.19 for Brian, 12.4 for Liam. But the twins odds are mostly showing blue (which signifies that odds are still shortening even as we speak), while Liam and Brian are showing mostly pink, which signifies odds still lengthening. What that means is that in a few hours the twins will be even further ahead, and might even go below 1.3 in the next 24 hours. I can't remember the odds for Pete in the final days last year, but I don't think they were much shorter than the twins have now. These are close to landslide figures.

[Sticks]

To be blunt, it looks like the twins are slipping :shocked:

It looks like their odds are lengthening again

As anyone got a betting odds history so we can see if there is a trend here.

[alex123]

i still have faith in liam com'on lad:dance2::dance2::dance2:
________
YAMAHA XVS1100 (http://www.cyclechaos.com/wiki/Yamaha_XVS1100)

[dazza91]

Originally posted by Sticks
To be blunt, it looks like the twins are slipping :shocked:

It looks like their odds are lengthening again

Of course they are :whistle:

Coming from the person who said they were a definite to get evicted when they were up :laugh2:

[Sticks]

Originally posted by dazza91
Of course they are :whistle:

Coming from the person who said they were a definite to get evicted when they were up :laugh2:

Only because I sounded the fire bell

It still could have happened, as it was a mathematical possibility then

[Matt08]

Brian's not going to have any chance if it's just him and the twins left in the house on Friday.

[JeanP!]

Go Samanda
Go Carole
Go Liam

:cheer2:

[bbrocks-x]

i think the paddy power odds are better

[Terpsichore]

Originally posted by Sticks
To be blunt, it looks like the twins are slipping :shocked:

It looks like their odds are lengthening again



Taking an average across the bookies, since lunchtime the twins' odds have slipped fractionally from 1.37 to 1.40. Brian's have also slipped fractionally from 3.19 to 3.20. Liam's have shortened slightly from 12.4 to 12.0. Nothing particularly surprising there. When odds shorten rapidly over 1 or 2 days there will be a slight back corrective at some point. You could call it an "elasticity" effect.

However the general trend is still forward for the twins (mostly blue on oddschecker) and still backward for both Liam and Brian (mostly pink).

[XxShortyxX]

I want Samanda 2 win and Liam to come second. The bookies have inside information, the twins are stil fav to win, so I am thinking they are a head of the vote.

[Sticks]

Originally posted by XxShortyxX
so I am thinking they are a head of the vote.


Just keep thinking that and they will loose :nono:

Don't just think it, act on it

Please report to the boot camp to get into shape so we can get the twins into the winners circle.

Also make sure your telephone is in working order, you will need it.

Remember 09011 21 22 24

[TOMBOY--N-I-K]

1. sam and amanda
2. brian
3. liam
4. ziggy
5. carole
6. jonty

[the_chosen_one]

You could have got 77/1 on the Zig man when I predicted his victory 6-7 weeks ago. I hope you all put your pennies on.

[Terpsichore]

Pennies are about all that bet is worth. But it's worth more now than it was 6-7 weeks ago. 77/1, you say? Well, you could get 101/1 from Stan James right now.

Are you sure you know what you're doing, gamblingwise? I reckon they saw you coming, mate. :cloud:

[the_chosen_one]

It was the same post where I predicted the final 6, 100% correctly (including Jonty, who hadn't even entered). :thumbs:

I find your lack of faith disturbing, Terpsichore.

Originally posted by Terpsichore
77/1, you say? Well, you could get 101/1 from Stan James right now.


You know what to do with those pennies, then.

[Terpsichore]

Whatever I do with those pennies, I'm bound to end up with more of them than you. If I'd been so rash as to buy into a falling market, I certainly wouldn't be bragging about it six weeks later when my stock had fallen by 1/3 of its original value. Are you related to Tim Nice But Dim?

[the_chosen_one]

Apologies for taking a while to reply Terpsichore, I was busy counting my winnings from predicting the final 6, 100% correctly. Now, where were we…

Originally posted by Terpsichore
If I'd been so rash as to buy into a falling market, I certainly wouldn't be bragging about it six weeks later when my stock had fallen by 1/3 of its original value


Oooo, touchy. Yes, as you’ve informed me, Ziggy’s odds have taken a sudden fall, whereas they’ve been on a slight rise since those dark days of 77/1 back in July, have they not? Ah well, I’ve had my feet up where that one’s concerned, I’m happy with the (considerable) profit I’ll make, but it’s certainly interesting to see how late that late surge is actually going to be. Even all powerful Jedi can’t predict everything, to the last detail. Those odds really are rather good, aren’t they?.....but….you stick with the twins Terpsichore, that’s where the safe money is.

Originally posted by Terpsichore
Are you related to Tim Nice But Dim?


Yeah, I’m his uncle Trevor. Mean but clever.

[JeanP!]

Sam/Amanda2/7
Brian11/4
Liam16/1
Carole50/1
Ziggy50/1
Jonty50/1

[CassetteFinger]

Sam & Amanda 2 - 7
Brian 11 - 4
Liam 16 - 1
Ziggy 66 - 1
Carole 66 - 1
Jonty 100 - 1
Any Other (Not Listed) 250 - 1

[XxShortyxX]

Originally posted by Rice_Square
Sam & Amanda 2 - 7
Brian 11 - 4
Liam 16 - 1
Ziggy 66 - 1
Carole 66 - 1
Jonty 100 - 1
Any Other (Not Listed) 250 - 1


I like them Odds, go Samanda :cheer:

[Sticks]

I sure they had better odds a few days ago

According to Coral

Amanda and Sam 1/3
Brian 5/2
Liam 12/1
Ziggy 50/1
Carole 50/1
Jonty 66/1

Amanda and Sam's odds are lengthening from how I read it

Did they peak too soon

Remember Kara lost out to jony by a measly 0.1% :shocked:

[Terpsichore]

Taking an average across all bookies on oddschecker both yesterday and today, we have:

xxxxxxx26th 27th
Twins - 1.42 1.33
Brian - 3.22 3.32
Liam - 12.0 12.90

As you see, the twins' odds have shortened still further since yesterday, and both Brian's and Liam's have lengthened. And the forecast is that that trend will continue for a while, probably for another day or so, with twins continuing to advance, and the other two drifting.

It's definitely landslide time according to the bookies, but there's no guarantee that this reflects the reality. Those figures represent gamblers' perception, not public perception. Not trying to frighten anyone, but a cautionary word is needed. It's the public, not the gamblers, who will be doing the voting this week. Fingers crossed.

[Amy21]

Whats the latest on the odds???. Are the twins still 1st favourite to win the show or has it changed again???.

[CassetteFinger]

No Brian peaked to soon his odds are lengthening by the day.

[CassetteFinger]

Originally posted by Amy21
Whats the latest on the odds???. Are the twins still 1st favourite to win the show or has it changed again???.

Its all basically the same twins are first brian is second liam is 3rd and the rest dont count.

[Amy21]

Originally posted by Rice_Square
Originally posted by Amy21
Whats the latest on the odds???. Are the twins still 1st favourite to win the show or has it changed again???.

Its all basically the same twins are first brian is second liam is 3rd and the rest dont count.

Yes go the twins!!!!!! :bigsmile:. I hope either they win or Brian does. I dont want any of the others to win.

[the_stillness]

I love those odds - come on TWINS2WIN

[CassetteFinger]

Yes everyone better be voting :D

[Sticks]

Don't let the odds given lure twin supporters into a false sense of security. They have not won it yet and they could still loose if we let them.

Keep dialling.

[JeanP!]

090 11 21 22 24 :xyxwave:

[Terpsichore]

Not much change since mid-day for the top two, but Liam's average has slipped further, from 12.90 to 13.72.

The others fighting for scraps. Barring a major development, those will be the three top contenders at the end of the week, at least with the bookies. Probably also with the public, but you can expect some discrepancy. But the gap now between the twins and Brian, and between Brian and Liam, is big enough that it would take a very big divergence of punters' opinion from public opinion to upset the winning order.

[Terpsichore]

This is how the average odds have changed over the last three days:

Twins 1.33 1.32 1.29
Brian 3.32 3.33 3.57
Liam 12.90 13.27 20.0

Twins odds continue to shorten, Brian slips slightly, Liam slips drastically.

Liam is the surprise. I can't think of any reason for his sudden decline.

[bananarama]

Ladbrooks today (Tuesday)

Twins 1.17
Brian 4.5

[Captain.Remy]

Now it's obvious and confirmed that the twins get the money ! :lovedup:

[Terpsichore]

Twins continue to advance. Now the longest odds you can get on them is 1.3 from Bluesqu. Average now 1.23.

Brian's odds continue to slip, now averagely 4.03

Liam's average currently 18.58.

All three still well clear of the others. Lowest odds you can get on any of them is 51.00 on Carole and Ziggy.

With a big gap between the leaders and the rest, and the gap between the three leaders widening, there is not much to get excited about. There is no fast finisher, like Aisleyne last year who closed rapidly on Glyn in the last week before falling back in the final day. The colour-code system on oddschecker still shows that we can expect twins' odds to shorten still further and Brian and Liam to lengthen. It's more of the same. This looks to me like the final result in terms of the top three.

With the other three the odds should not be taken as a reliable guide. When odds go over 50.00 it's Mickey Mouse figures. Any of them could finish fourth, but it will probably be Ziggy.

[CassetteFinger]

Come on the TWINS :D

[alex123]

i think
twinnies will win but im not counting out the other 2 just yet,out of the 3 i want liam then the twins:elephant:
________
Coach purses (http://icoachhandbags.com/)

[GlitterEyes]

I think the twins winning is the most predictable as they don't cause anyone any harm and nobody has any valid reasons for disliking them like they do with all the other HM.

[CassetteFinger]

Originally posted by GlitterEyes
I think the twins winning is the most predictable as they don't cause anyone any harm and nobody has any valid reasons for disliking them like they do with all the other HM.

Yes and thats why they should win :thumbs:

[Amy21]

What are the latest odds today???. Are the twins still 1st favourite to win the show???. Someone please tell me I would appreciate it alot.

[Sticks]

From Paddy Power

Twins 1/5
Brian 10/3
Liam 18/1
Ziggy 50/1
Carole 80/1
Jonty 100/1

I would not trust the odds now, as it was pointed out a lot of the voters are below 18, and so their vote wont show up there and they are said to be in the Brian camp. The bookmakers must be getting the bets from older people who are fewer in number.

Although I would like the twins to win, from what has been said in the last 24 to 48 hours, it is looking less likely what ever the odds down the bookies are saying.

Does our resident expert Terpsichore know if the bookmakers know how to factor in the vote of those to young to place a bet?

[CassetteFinger]

Im 16 im in the samanda camp.

[sXcLiLMiNx]

who do you want to win Big Brother 2007???

amanda and sam 1278
brian 1181
carole 436
jonty 420
liam 1212
ziggy 1014

just thought id post this poll from a friends myspace

[sXcLiLMiNx]

going to post the percentages now,they did'nt let me copy them first time :S

[Terpsichore]

Originally posted by Sticks

Does our resident expert Terpsichore know if the bookmakers know how to factor in the vote of those to young to place a bet?

If they're old enough to use mobile phones and old enough to vote, they're also old enough to take part in opinion polls. No doubt there are many of them posting regularly on this site. And therefore there is no need to think of them as below the radar in terms of getting their views across.

As I said in a previous post, the bookies pay close attention to internet chat forums, and watch all BB-related programmes on TV, and study newspaper coverage. They also commission polls of their own. So they're well clued up about what people are thinking. And, even if it were true that the youngest voters are outside the range of the opinion canvassers, there is no reason to think their votes would be for Brian rather than the twins. I would expect all three of the leading contenders to be popular with that age group. The ones who would suffer would be the other three, Carole, Ziggy and Jonty.

However, as I said in another post, public opinion is not the only factor that determines odds. If money starts piling onto a particular contestant, their odds will shorten even if their popularity with the public remains the same. The bookies have to do that to protect themselves. So sometimes the betting bandwagon gets ahead of the public, and makes a contestant look more popular than they really are.

That has probably happened in the case of the twins. Their odds have shortened drastically in the last few days, and this evening I found the average across several bookies had dipped below 1.2. I doubt very much that that reflects a sudden surge of public support, which is probably the same as it was a week ago when the odds were around 1.5. Mostly the shortening odds are due to a surge of enthusiasm from the punters. For that reason, where you get odds on two contestants that are still within touching distance of each other, it would be unwise to assume that the contestant with the lower odds has the better chance of winning. But that doesn't apply in this case, because Brian is no longer in touching distance. His odds have gone over 4.0 and are still lengthening. It's a big gap. Public opinion could turn out to be at variance with the betting trend by quite a big percentage, and the result would still be the same. Barring a major disaster, the twins' victory is a done deal.

[CassetteFinger]

Sam & Amanda 1 - 5
Brian 10 - 3
Liam 18 - 1
Ziggy 50 - 1
Carole 80 - 1
Jonty 100 - 1
Any Other (Not Listed) 250 - 1

Odds :D (http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=104&ev_type_id=8293&promo=bet_DontMentionIt&crea=hdr)

[sXcLiLMiNx]

so basically the odds are saying the noone out of the trio of twins,brian and liam have absolutley no chance in hell of winning

[cepb]

No they've got the best chance of winning.

[Sticks]

Terpsichore, I think I was having a wobble, similar to Red Wednesday in 1992, the impression given on BBLB and from a poster here that there was a hidden Brian block vote that would overwhelm the twins vote.

It had me in a state of depression.

But from what you said, the odds at the bookies could be deceptive in gauging actual voting patterns?

[Captain.Remy]

I'm really really glad they are faves !!! :spin2:

[bananarama]

I don't bet on BB or anything for that matter myself but would like to know what those that bet on BB are likely to do.....

Meaning.....If some one bets on lets say the twins because you think they will win regradles of how you feel about tham. Would that bet then be supported with a vote for the twins in order to help increase the chances of winning the bet.....

You see what I am leading into..........In other words does betting cause more voting for the chosen one than if betting did not exist!!!!

[Terpsichore]

Originally posted by Sticks
Terpsichore, I think I was having a wobble, similar to Red Wednesday in 1992, the impression given on BBLB and from a poster here that there was a hidden Brian block vote that would overwhelm the twins vote.

It had me in a state of depression.

But from what you said, the odds at the bookies could be deceptive in gauging actual voting patterns?

Yes, the odds at bookies can be deceptive for reasons I gave in my last post - i.e. gamblers start following each other, creating their own bandwagon. But that's only true up to a point. If it gets too far out of line with the reality, it soon corrects itself. Bookies's odds are often wrong, but not by the huge amount that they'd have to be this year, if the result was an upset.

I doubt very much that there's any hidden Brian block vote, or not one that will make much difference. The accuracy of polls etc, is something people like me had to worry about last year, when the race for second was a close contest. Aisleyne's last two weeks was a sprint finish that took her right up to Glyn on the table. IIRC, they were level-pegging until a couple of days before the Friday. Could have cost me a lot of money if she'd finished ahead. But when odds levels are as they are this year, with Brian well adrift, any inaccuracies in polls or betting odds isn't going to make a lot of difference.

What can make a difference - but not this year, I think - is "second votes". When the vote is spread between 6 contestants, you have to ask what happens after a contestant has been evicted and lines are still open. Some of that contestant's supporters will then transfer their support to another contestant. If things go as I expect them to, Carole, Ziggy and Jonty will be gone first, and their combined support might have been 25% of the total so far. If all of them voted again for their second favourite, that can make a difference. In the time available, it's probably not huge, but it could have been the decisive factor last year in winning 2nd place for Glyn. There was no large clique of "Glyn haters" - i.e. people who would vote initially for their favourite (e.g. Richard) and then after he was evicted they'd start voting for whoever was Glyn's main rival. But there was a large block of "Aisleyne haters" who would have given their second votes to Glyn. Just about everyone liked him, even if he wasn't their favourite.

I can only guess how big second votes are as a factor, but I would say it favours the Twins rather than Brian. My perception is that the "Brian-hating" block is bigger than the "Twin hating" block, and if that's true, second votes will favour them more than him. But I think the contest would have to be a lot closer before second votes would make a difference to the result.

[Terpsichore]

Here is the progression of average odds for the last five days.

Twins - 1.33 -- 1.32 -- 1.29 -- 1.29 --- 1.23 --- 1.19
Brian -- 3.32 -- 3.33 -- 3.57 -- 3.57 --- 4.03 --- 4.51
Liam - 12.90 - 13.27 - 18.29 - 20.00 - 18.58 - 18.81

Twins' surge continues. Brian dipped badly in the last two days. Liam holding steady at the moment, but the colour-coding on oddschecker shows he might start advancing, closing the gap on Brian. Too late to catch him, probably, but not impossible. After a bad week, he might be turning the corner in terms of popularity. It usually takes a few days for punters' odds to catch up with a mood swing, so he might be closer to Brian in reality than the figures imply.

[iem]

Paddy Power:- Latest Odds:-


Sam & Amanda: 1 - 5
Brian: 10 - 3
Liam: 18 - 1
Ziggy: 50 - 1
Carole 80 - 1
Jonty: 100 - 1

[CassetteFinger]

From Totesport

Sam/Amanda 1/7
Brian 5/1
Liam 14/1
Ziggy 50/1
Carole 80/1
Jonty 80/1

Brian is dropping and is now 5/1 :D

[JeanP!]

YAY

TWINS 2 WIN
090 11 21 22 24

[sXcLiLMiNx]

come on liam you can catch him:laugh::laugh::laugh:

[iem]

Paddy Power:- Outright Betting:-
Latest odds:-

Sam & Amanda 1 - 5
Brian 10 - 3
Liam 18 - 1
Ziggy 50 - 1
Carole 80 - 1
Jonty 100 - 1
Any Other (Not Listed) 250 - 1

[sXcLiLMiNx]

does that mean liam is catching up on bri :O:O:O:O:O:devil:

[bananarama]

All these odd will be meaningless if in reality many individuals are casting hundreds of votes for their favourite. Creating a massive distortion of genuine popularity.

Money buys votes. Those that have it can out do those that do not..........

Regardless of what the bookies indicate the twins are not safe winners you can be 100% certain of that.......

[sXcLiLMiNx]

^^^ thats true

[CassetteFinger]

I hope that they are winners though.