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-   BB7 (https://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=57)
-   -   The bookmakers' odds [merged topics] (https://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23740)

jrc 13-08-2006 10:11 AM
Give over, 'Ash' is not going to win. Pete will win in a landslide victory.

BigBrother10:AllnewBigBro 13-08-2006 10:11 AM
Pete is still fav and keching up on the polls.
 
Pete is still a big fav(1/6) and keching up on the polls.Glyn is fav on the winner without pete betting market,Ash is 2nd at 21/10 nearly 2/1.Glyn is 1/1 and 10/11.Nikki was fav but now 3rd at 11/4.Nikki stands no reall chance to be honest.This market kind of predicts who will finish 2nd or 3rd and so on.
With some bokkies Ash has the same odds as Nikki and has evn overtook Nikki.With bet365 she is 15/2 ,Glyn is 8/1 and Nikki 10/1.But Glyn is still 2nd fav overall and Nikki 3rd overall but Ash will kech up with her.

kara 13-08-2006 10:13 AM
so its now 1/6 pete and pretty much the inverse for Ash - It's a two horse race now. I reckon it's 50-50 pete or ash to win - the bookies will catch up by tuesday

BigBrother10:AllnewBigBro 13-08-2006 10:14 AM
With some bookies ,but with most she is 3rd and 4th favourite.Glyn has shortened slightly or has stayed the same.I chek each bokkies odds so overall Glyn is 2nd fav love.http://odds.bookies.com/Default.aspx...e=0&help=false
you will see for yourself.

kara 13-08-2006 10:15 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by jrc
Give over, 'Ash' is not going to win. Pete will win in a landslide victory.
tell us what makes you so sure? don't the numerous on-line polls make you a little unsure?

kara 13-08-2006 10:15 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Bigmouth
Sweet:joker: Kara whos that picture of in your Avatars???
Shes cute:tongue:
that's me :)

BigBrother10:AllnewBigBro 13-08-2006 10:16 AM
She is joint 2nd fav with Glyn.But Glyn has better odds with most bookies so Glyn and Nikki are still ahead f Ash.

nikkiisgreat 13-08-2006 10:16 AM
cool just remove gyl and add dickey then i would be alrite
1 pete hope he win he deserves it
2nikki dont want her to win although i love her because she has been evicted
3dickey love him
4 ash i like her more but not as much as pete dickey and nikki
5gyln i dislike him more as the day go by
6jennie not because i dislike her more but bcause she doesnt deseve to win

Bigmouth 13-08-2006 10:17 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by kara
Quote:
Originally posted by Bigmouth
Sweet:joker: Kara whos that picture of in your Avatars???
Shes cute:tongue:
that's me :)
God dam girl,You look sweet enough to eat:love: Was you in star wars:joker: Thanks for the banner:thumbs:

BigBrother10:AllnewBigBro 13-08-2006 10:18 AM
Glyn as well ,Its Pete,Glyn and Ash for the title.A 3 horse race not 2.3 contenders.Nikki has blown her chances she is out.So the rest as well.

jrc 13-08-2006 10:18 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by kara
Quote:
Originally posted by jrc
Give over, 'Ash' is not going to win. Pete will win in a landslide victory.
tell us what makes you so sure? don't the numerous on-line polls make you a little unsure?
Well for a start I honestly think that Pete is the most popular housemate. These polls are not an example of the real thing, because you can only vote once. Look, instead of boasting about how you 'know' Ash will win, you may as well just wait until friday, its only 5 days away.

kara 13-08-2006 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by jrc
Quote:
Originally posted by kara
Quote:
Originally posted by jrc
Give over, 'Ash' is not going to win. Pete will win in a landslide victory.
tell us what makes you so sure? don't the numerous on-line polls make you a little unsure?
Well for a start I honestly think that Pete is the most popular housemate. These polls are not an example of the real thing, because you can only vote once. Look, instead of boasting about how you 'know' Ash will win, you may as well just wait until friday, its only 5 days away.
pete was popular, but that popularity has slipped in this last week. People will multi vote for all of the contestants. I don't 'know' that Ash will win, but I feel she has a good chance of winning as anyone else (and I've got some money on her! :) )

nikkiisgreat 13-08-2006 10:23 AM
justremove gyln from the mist then ash and pete i wouldnt mind who win

BigBrother10:AllnewBigBro 13-08-2006 10:30 AM
Look pete is still fave cant you accept that, stop pretending Ash is odds on.Pete and Glyn stand a better chance at the moment.Pte to win.Ash is fake.

James 13-08-2006 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by kara
Quote:
Originally posted by James
The bookmakers usually get it right in terms of predicting the result.

The one exception I remember was when Kenzie was odds-on to win Celebrity Big Brother 3 - right up to the final day even - and Bez ended up winning.

Also you have to remember bookmakers' odds don't necessarily reflect how likely something is to happen but reflect how much money has been laid, where.

Something has definately changed in the polls this week... this is the first week Aisleyene has been in the lead.
James, in the thread about Poll accuracy you say in response to the question "are the polls on this forum accurate?":

Quote:

I'd say pretty much, yes.

For CBB4 the final week poll predicted Chantelle would win by a landslide. It didn't predict that Michael Barrymore would be second though - the fact that people often vote for more than one housemate in the final is a variable that the polls on this site don't really take into account.

For the BB6 final the poll correctly predicted throughout the week that it was nip-and-tuck between Anthony and Eugene. After Eugene won half the money in the penultimate night twist there was a run-off poll and Anthony was the clear leader there.

The eviction polls have been generally accurate throughout this series also. For example Imogen's eviction percentage was 62% and the poll here predicted 63.1. Mikey's eviction percentage was bang-on level with the poll here - 48.5%.

Of course (as politicians are fond of saying) the only poll that really counts is the one, the result of which, will be announced at the end.
What do you think is going on, are the bookmakers right or are the polls right?
I think the polls are fairly accurate but the gap between Pete and Aisleyne will close later in the week - Pete has started off slow in a lot of weeks' favourite polls but picked up more votes later.

A lot of votes (to win BB7) will be cast near the end of the week. The final vote might be quite tight.

kara 13-08-2006 10:42 AM
odd on nikki: 7 to 4 at willhill !!!!
_______________________________

kara 13-08-2006 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by James
Quote:
Originally posted by kara
Quote:
Originally posted by James
The bookmakers usually get it right in terms of predicting the result.

The one exception I remember was when Kenzie was odds-on to win Celebrity Big Brother 3 - right up to the final day even - and Bez ended up winning.

Also you have to remember bookmakers' odds don't necessarily reflect how likely something is to happen but reflect how much money has been laid, where.

Something has definately changed in the polls this week... this is the first week Aisleyene has been in the lead.
James, in the thread about Poll accuracy you say in response to the question "are the polls on this forum accurate?":

Quote:

I'd say pretty much, yes.

For CBB4 the final week poll predicted Chantelle would win by a landslide. It didn't predict that Michael Barrymore would be second though - the fact that people often vote for more than one housemate in the final is a variable that the polls on this site don't really take into account.

For the BB6 final the poll correctly predicted throughout the week that it was nip-and-tuck between Anthony and Eugene. After Eugene won half the money in the penultimate night twist there was a run-off poll and Anthony was the clear leader there.

The eviction polls have been generally accurate throughout this series also. For example Imogen's eviction percentage was 62% and the poll here predicted 63.1. Mikey's eviction percentage was bang-on level with the poll here - 48.5%.

Of course (as politicians are fond of saying) the only poll that really counts is the one, the result of which, will be announced at the end.
What do you think is going on, are the bookmakers right or are the polls right?
I think the polls are fairly accurate but the gap between Pete and Aisleyne will close later in the week - Pete has started off slow in a lot of weeks' favourite polls but picked up more votes later.

A lot of votes (to win BB7) will be cast near the end of the week. The final vote might be quite tight.
thanks james!

Bells 13-08-2006 10:42 AM
That's a really good point James. Things seem to change towards the end mainly, I mean obviously it was more apparent last year in BB6 but even this year I think we can expect to see the HMs pick up some last minute votes.

kara 13-08-2006 11:03 AM
the odds are going crazy at the moment, some have glynn as favourite! ash is still climbing steadily overall

Deep2 13-08-2006 12:05 PM
I can't see how Richard has been discounted by everyone - he is such a nice, intelligent character. Can't believe he will finish 5th at best.

Dan_ 13-08-2006 12:08 PM
I still think if it came down to it people would end up voting for Pete if their favourite ended up going.

Arneldo 13-08-2006 12:13 PM
You have to remember that female housemates usally do alot better in Polls then male housemates - I think Makosi was top of some polls this time last year aswell but i could be wrong.

I think Aisleyne, Glyn & Pete all have a chance at coming 1st or 2nd & I think Nikki has a good hcance at coming 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

I think come Friday - We will not know just who will finish were. except Jennie and rich who will probley finish 5th & 6th

kara 13-08-2006 12:49 PM
check the odds again, pete's are drifting and ashs are shortening !!!! :)

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/m...x/pid/17917904

kara 13-08-2006 12:50 PM
You can still get 16 to 1 on ash at totesport, but the others are down into single figures

lambruscokid 13-08-2006 01:52 PM
I might just set some money aside on Ash, that way at least if she does miraculously come top, my disappointment will be tempered with cash...


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