Scotland Likely to Secede From the United Kingdom After Election
 

Good? Bad?

What will happen to the Union Jack?

"Potentially the most serious threat to the UK in its 310-year history moved a step closer to fruition as the Scottish National party swept to untrammelled power in the Scottish parliament, giving its leader, Alex Salmond, a mandate to hold a referendum on independence at the time of his choosing within the next five years.

The stunning result in Scotland " giving Salmond a working majority of nine at Holyrood " gave David Cameron a new constitutional headache as he saw off the introduction of the alternative vote for Westminster elections. The no campaign, of which Cameron was a vocal supporter, won the nationwide historic referendum on AV by an overwhelming margin of 68% to 32% on a 42% turnout.

In a presidential campaign Salmond turned round a Labour poll lead and swept through Scottish Labour's heartlands taking 69 seats, to Labour's 37. The SNP reached its majority by taking Kirkcaldy, the home turf of former Labour prime minister, Gordon Brown.

The stunning result in Scotland, caused by a collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote there and a rudderless Labour campaign, led Salmond to announce he would be holding conversations immediately with Cameron to "lay down markers as to what this result, what this mandate, means in terms of Scotland's relationship with the United Kingdom".

He will call for specific transfers of power to Scotland in an attempt to assemble slowly a consensus for independence, leading to a referendum at some point after 2013.

Cameron said: "If they want to hold a referendum, I will campaign to keep our United Kingdom together with every single fibre I have." Despite the SNP's big win, polls showed most voters in Scotland oppose independence.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...ict?intcmp=122

They'll probably get the referendum but I can't see the majority wanting to split entirely.

Just because Scots vote for SNP it doesnt mean they'd vote for independance. It's a different thing. And the majority of Scots don't even vote SNP so I seriously doubt a referendum would result in them seperating.

I just don't think they have the confidence or desire togo it alone. Especially now they pretty much get the best of both worlds.

Alex Salmond can of course put forward a policy for referendum on Independence, he can then hold that referendum if it gets through the Scottish parliament.

However if the result of the referendum was yes, he cannot insist that it is binding on the UK govt. The UK parliament would then independently discuss and decide whether to allow a vote in the UK parliament for Independence to be given.

With all main political parties at Westminster, it is a long shot indeed that the UK parliament would support and vote for to allow independence for Scotland.

He could of course go on and on about it, but his winning a referendum on independence would not in itself mean independence for Scotland,that would have to be decided and allowed by the whole UK parliament.

I doubt and would hope also that the Scots would not vote for full independence anyway.

I don't agree fully about Scots getting the best of both Worlds but you are totally correct in that not a majority of Scots voters vote SNP anyway.
the majority of votes in Scotland go to Unionist parties like Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems.

Even this election with the disenchanted votes of the Lib Dems being loaned to the SNP,they still only got the SNPs vote to 45%,in truth the figure comfortably strong as to SNP voting is more like 33/34%, no more.

well they would'nt and thats why it ain't gonna happen. If they had a referendum(which I hope they do) I think it would settle it once and for all. Then the SNP would have nothing to bang on about.

Be Great
Scotland can stand on its own Feet
and go for the Euro if they Dare.


Means Labour will never have Scotland again.

Bliss

not sure how you draw that conclusion. I think a lot of SNP votes are a nod towards independance. If they actually had it then the SNP would lose their big calling card.

but I think a lot of SNP votes are a bluff. They wouldnt get so many if it actually resulted in a split from the UK.

They are doing it in a few years
by then
Scotland will be better off
as a Republic.


And Will not effect English visting it
or working up there , except if the pick the dodgy Euro.

sorry but I dont feel any great desire from Scots to be a republic. Im sure there has been much more desire in recent decades...but it never happened.

Countries become republics via some kind of huge revolution...and I don't see many Scots revolting. It will take decades to happen I reckon. Not like theyll have referendums every year.

From what I know, most Scots like what the SNP are doing in the country but dont necessarily support independence, Salmond will have his referendum but I dont think they'll secede

Yes, that would be a good thing to happen,I agree with you.

In Scotland in a few years they will Vote on it.

If the public at that time want it
it will go ahead.


Times Are Hard

Republic Of Scotland has a International Market Place.
Maybe they should change to dollars - that would be safer.

Good, lets see how long it takes them to crawl back when they realise they need our money!

Its not for a Few years
by then Scotland can get away from English Deals.
and change to dollars - if they wish

No Scotland can stand on its own feet.


Times Are Changing

its not about whether they can stand on their own feet. This isnt just about business its also about emotional attachment. I know there's a hate thing between English & Scots but really there's still deep rooted links. Giving up the union jack, the monarchy and all ties to the brand of Britain is a huge deal and I don't think Scots are anywhere near ready to take that leap. Really, they don't even need to. They still have their own identity within the union.

They are not Going to Build a Wall.



No this is Not about Hate at all


This is about Money and the Future of Scotland.




Sure they can have the Union jack
and the Republic of Scotland
we are United against terror gang criminals

Really strong post Zippy,I have to agree again with you,independence would bring all sorts of costly and unnecessary trauma of re-organisation not just because of the fact Scotland is part of the EU as part of the United Kingdom but on all other industrial,business and financial matters.

As you rightly point out, they have massive affection for many British elements such as for the Monarchy.You are 100% right to point out that it's unlikely the majority of them will want to take that leap into the unknown now.

It's a thin line between love and hate, it's been on the whole a mutually good thing for Scotland to be part of the UK and good for England and the rest to have them there too.

I cannot see a majority of Scots voting for independence in the modern World as it is, it made more sense to want it many decades ago rather than now.

come the Olympics the UK will be united. Thats when I always notice the real connection between the UK nations. They all fly the union jack.

good luck to a referendum after that

Yes its after that Event.


Not a Problem.

it will be a problem if youre hoping for a republic

If its a no vote there won't be another referendum for many many years

They are doing it when more want it.
And times will be even harder.


Look what went down with Cleggs Vote Mess
2 to 1 against his rush failed vote job.

Alex Salmond can do no wrong after biggest victory margin in Scottish political history

The scale of the Nationalists' win is so great that Labour might never recover, with profound consequences not only in Holyrood but in Westminster. Independence for Scotland and the end of the United Kingdom suddenly seems possible


From todays Observer.



Utter Bliss



If Scotland becomes a Republic
it will Kill the Labour party of England.

It's never going to happen I believe.
Independence would be a disaster not only for the rest of the UK but also for Scotland, and if the unthinkable did happen as that devastation hit it would be the Govt that was in power at the time that would never recover from that break up.

However, the referendum can be held but the whole UK parliament as Sovereign parliament is the only one who can actually grant Independence and can you arista or anyone else see the Conservative,Labour and Lib Dem parties allowing independence to be granted. of course not,they are all staunch Unionsit parties and on this issue they would speak as one party. All coming together to reject the independence call.

Alex Salmond and the SNP can hold the referendum but what they cannot do is make it binding to the whole UK parliament at Westminster.
This is never going to happen I am so confident to say that never in my lifetime (I hope I have a long way to go only being 19), will the Scots ever actually vote for independence and also at the next election when it comes, I also believe the Scots will give Labour as many seats as it got in 2010 and likely more for those elections to the Westminster parliament.

The Lib Dem protest votes that gave the SNP this great succes are only loaned to them,in a Westminster general election, some will go back to the Lib Dems and others to likely Labour.The SNP, come the westmister election, will end up again behind Labour, the Lib Dems well down on past elections and the Conservatives stuck, due to the massive hatred that remains for the Conservatives overall in Scotland.

Sure England will not want it

But in 3 years time the Scotts could back it
as the bonus behind the deal is the Key.

It was reported today David would allow
them to Vote up there.

Its for the Scottish People Alone to Pick
what they want.


And it is Bliss
that if we get the Republic Of Scotland
Labour with Die.


I will Jump with Pure Joy.


Times Are Changing.

I feel you are missing the point I am trying to make,it is not for the Scottish people alone to decide to have independence,yes in a referendum they can vote for it as they voted for devolution in 1979 but Margaret Thatcher refused to grant it,however,that referendum vote would not in any way be binding to the govt in Westminster who have to take the whole UK picture.Only the Westminster UK parliament can grant independence to one of its Nations and there is not a single main UK party who would support that.

An Alex Salmond/SNP referendum can be taken as a barometer but it cannot be made binding to a UK Westminster govt.

Actually it's also a poor argument to say that without Scotland Labour would be finished, in both 1997 and 2001 and to a degree in 2005 even without the Scottish seats won by Labour there would have still been Labour Govts,albeit in 2005 a likely minority Labour govt.
Without the 41 seats won in Scotland by Lab 2005, they would have still had 314 seats.

No its is the Scottish Vote Only.

Watch the News

For the referendum only.Yes.
I have watched the news, it is the 'law', the SNP cannot get a yes in a referendum and automatically get independence, it has to be granted by the UK parliament,read the law on constitutional matters, this is a constitutional matter, the Scots parliament has no power over matters of the constitution.

Either way it would not finish the Labour party as you say it will, as there are only 60 seats in Scotland, take those 60 seats away,that leaves 590 English/Welsh and Irish seats, needing 296 for an overall majority then without any Scottish seats.

Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 2005,they got 355 seats in the 2005 election, so without the Scottish seats that leaves 314, they would have still had an overall majority of 30+.

It Bloody Could


And it would be Bliss.

Labour want UnElected Former Nutter Brown to
take him on so it can Backfire
He will be on Mic telling he own Nasty thoughts , again.

If they become a sovereign state, then I am defecting to Scotland, no questions asked. Meanwhile England can enjoy decades of economic mismanagement and continued decimation of our schools, universities, and NHS. Before you know it every penny, of your taxes will be lining the pockets of PPP contractors, (privately owned and run) public transport parasites and military parades, not that any of you will mind I'm sure. It is obvious that you have learned nothing from the mistakes of every government for the past 30 years what you want and who am I to stop you going about your merry way?

Actually, I would be delighted if they go through with this. The English public will learn from their mistakes the hard way, just don't take me with you thank you very much.

Good For You


Feel The Force.

Well I would bet Alex Salmond would grin from ear to ear if they unleashed Gordon Brown on them again. That would be a very unwise decision.
Having said that most Scots would rather Brown still as PM than Cameron.

How could it finish Labour though,I have just listed clear facts of the last 3 elections won by Labour where in no way were the Scottish seats even needed to win them a comfortable overall majority.

In truth, especially with the defeat of the AV vote,with PR now off the agenda for decades at least,we are back to the 2 party system and really neither the Conservatives or Labour are anywhere near being finished,the same cannot be said for the Lib Dems though.

I too would love one day to join members of my Father's family who are Scots and live in Scotland.Independent or not.
I love the place and the people.

Yes Scotland is great

I may even buy a castle up there
so I can export more

I don't think English people care too much either way.

and I really don't know why you think the Scots would vote to be a republic in a referendum. There's just no strong indication to back that up. In fact, all indications suggest otherwise.

The SNP have only increased their votes since they are restricted to power WITHIN THE UK fold. Votes for the SNP are not votes for independance like it used to be before Scots had their own parliament. And as Ive said, they don't even get anywhere near a majority. So in a referendum I really don't see where 50% plus of the votes would even come from.

and you can go on about feelings being different in a few years but thats just wishful thinking. It takes a damn sight longer than that for a population to suddenly switch to wanting to be a republic. It takes generations.

I totally agree,as you point out the SNP did not even get over 50% of the votes and many of the increased votes to the 45% they did get were protest votes from Lib Dems.

The last part of your post sums the realities of the situation up perfectly too.

"I don't think English people care too much either way."


True.


I look Forwards

The Republic of Scotland
CDX Castle Party

The SNP won 69 out of 129 seats. It was a landslide victory.