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-   -   Voting intention polls March (https://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=336463)

Brillopad 11-03-2018 10:32 AM

Voting intention polls March
 
https://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/voting-intention/

Not changed much, as expected - 43% Labour and 41% Tories. Considerably more reliable than the Mirror stating 44% Labour and 37% Tories - a huge 5% difference. Who would you believe?

Withano 11-03-2018 11:54 AM

The most recent poll, carried out by Survation, who seem to be one of the most consistently accurate pollster, have it at 44:37. Its a shame we're stuck with the tories, its clearly not the will of the people.

https://i0.wp.com/survation.com/wp-c...size=698%2C447

Withano 11-03-2018 12:00 PM

Thanks for highlighting this, its good to see a pro-labour thread in the forum for a change.

MTVN 11-03-2018 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 9913703)
The most recent poll, carried out by Survation, who seem to be one of the most consistently accurate pollster, have it at 45:37. Its a shame we're stuck with the tories, its clearly not the will of the people.

https://i0.wp.com/survation.com/wp-c...size=698%2C447

So how does December work out as the most recent poll?

A poll four days ago actually put the Tories ahead: https://order-order.com/2018/03/06/a...-tories-ahead/

Tom4784 11-03-2018 12:01 PM

I'm skeptical of any polls, they didn't get it right the last time or with the referendum.

reece(: 11-03-2018 12:01 PM

Polls aren't to be trusted after getting it wrong so many times.

Withano 11-03-2018 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MTVN (Post 9913710)
So how does December work out as the most recent poll?

A poll four days ago actually put the Tories ahead: https://order-order.com/2018/03/06/a...-tories-ahead/

That isnt the most recent graph actually. My bad

Withano 11-03-2018 12:07 PM

Polls tend to be skewed in right wings favour in this country, so this is promising for me.

Brillopad 11-03-2018 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 9913709)
Thanks for highlighting this, its good to see a pro-labour thread in the forum for a change.

If you make comparisons with previous polls a small change is the norm. I think your ‘enthusiasm’ and reading more into it than that is only to be expected.

Withano 11-03-2018 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brillopad (Post 9913755)
If you make comparisons with previous polls a small change is the norm. I think your ‘enthusiasm’ and reading more into it than that is only to be expected.

Yep, a small change is the norm, a few consistant small changes is a different thing entirely though.

Twosugars 11-03-2018 12:46 PM

I hope Labour and others will destroy Tories in London local elections in May:cheer2:

Kazanne 11-03-2018 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twosugars (Post 9913764)
I hope Labour and others will destroy Tories in London local elections in May:cheer2:

They probably will as they have form on 'destroying' things:hehe:

Brillopad 11-03-2018 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 9913763)
Yep, a small change is the norm, a few consistant small changes is a different thing entirely though.

Nope. It’s being going on like that for ages. Besides even if it were true it’s like how in the local elections people make a protest vote - but when it comes to the real thing they go with their heads and hearts. You will see.

Withano 11-03-2018 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brillopad (Post 9913792)
Nope. It’s being going on like that for ages.

Well.. exactly, but you're the only one to make a thread highlighting their success. What else was you planning on talking about if not that?

Brillopad 11-03-2018 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 9913803)
Well.. exactly, but you're the only one to make a thread highlighting their success. What else was you planning on talking about if not that?

I wasn’t highlighting Labour’s success - I wasn’t aware their was one. I was drawing attention to the convenient discrepancy between two polls and how small changes like that are very unlikely to lead to a Labour win. People are desperate to believe that, I understand that, but facts are facts. :hee:

Withano 11-03-2018 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brillopad (Post 9913812)
I wasn’t highlighting Labour’s success. I was drawing attention to the convenient discrepancy between two polls and how small changes like that are very unlikely to lead to a Labour win. People are desperate to believe that, I understand that, but facts are facts. :hee:

Yeh it would be a bit daft to only look at one poll result, it would be better to look at the last ten or fifteen, which show a large majority of Labour wins, and very few tory wins.
Take into consideration how right-leaning the polls tended to be before the election and brexit too, and the picture looks very different.

I'm a bit confused why you made this thread now? Seems a bit baity if it wasnt supposed to be a discussion on the poll results afterall.

Kizzy 11-03-2018 01:26 PM

Every day the tories make themselves more and more unattractive to more and more people, I welcome any shift towards Labour.

Mystic Mock 11-03-2018 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MTVN (Post 9913710)
So how does December work out as the most recent poll?

A poll four days ago actually put the Tories ahead: https://order-order.com/2018/03/06/a...-tories-ahead/

Interesting that Greens are ahead of UKIP on that poll.

DemolitionRed 11-03-2018 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mystic Mock (Post 9913838)
Interesting that Greens are ahead of UKIP on that poll.

UKIP have been thrown into the long grass. The Greens are definitely a party I'd support if and when they come up with a decent leader.

Northern Monkey 11-03-2018 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dezzy (Post 9913711)
I'm skeptical of any polls, they didn't get it right the last time or with the referendum.

This

Northern Monkey 11-03-2018 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mystic Mock (Post 9913838)
Interesting that Greens are ahead of UKIP on that poll.

UKIP are dead

user104658 11-03-2018 03:25 PM

Polls had "Stay" (referendum) and "Clinton" (US presidential) ahead by such huge margins that bookies were giving 1/5 on for each. They also didn't reflect the latest GE at all. I'm not sure they're even close to accurate.

Wizard. 11-03-2018 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 9913724)
Polls tend to be skewed in right wings favour in this country, so this is promising for me.

It's actually the other way around. In both the 2010 and 2015 elections the polls had Labour much higher than the what actually happened. It's only in the 2017 GE where Labour did better than predicted and the Conservatives did worse.

Wizard. 11-03-2018 03:32 PM

When Labour loses the next GE the Labour mob have to remove Jeremy "I will not be moved" and take him down.

Withano 11-03-2018 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier (Post 9913968)
Polls had "Stay" (referendum) and "Clinton" (US presidential) ahead by such huge margins that bookies were giving 1/5 on for each. They also didn't reflect the latest GE at all. I'm not sure they're even close to accurate.

Leave was consistently higher than remain in the polls, apart from the short spike after Cox's murder... it's just that nobody believed the polls back then, but they were well within the margin of error.

Vicky. 11-03-2018 03:37 PM

I am ****ed if there is another election soon. I cannot vote Labour as they are a mess and are actively trying to remove the rights of women. I cannot vote for a party that are trying to remove my rights, and the rights of my daughter..obviously.

However I cannot vote for the Tories either. As they are actively ****ing my life, as a disabled and not very well off person.

Anything else is a wasted vote really. And near all other parties support 'self-ID', the only party I am aware of that do not back this ridiculous proposal is UKIP, and hell will freeze over before I vote for them.

So yeah, politically homeless. First time ever, and it does not feel good.

Underscore 11-03-2018 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vicky. (Post 9913981)
I am ****ed if there is another election soon. I cannot vote Labour as they are a mess and are actively trying to remove the rights of women. I cannot vote for a party that are trying to remove my rights, and the rights of my daughter..obviously.

However I cannot vote for the Tories either. As they are actively ****ing my life, as a disabled and not very well off person.

Anything else is a wasted vote really. And near all other parties support 'self-ID', the only party I am aware of that do not back this ridiculous proposal is UKIP, and hell will freeze over before I vote for them.

So yeah, politically homeless. First timer ever, and it does not feel good.

I get you. I'm a Labour member who resides on the Progress wing. I don't think it's fair all of the sudden momentum are running the show.

Having troubles reconciling even renewing my membership. Planning to vote Lib Dem or Greens.

user104658 11-03-2018 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vicky. (Post 9913981)
I am ****ed if there is another election soon. I cannot vote Labour as they are a mess and are actively trying to remove the rights of women. I cannot vote for a party that are trying to remove my rights, and the rights of my daughter..obviously.

However I cannot vote for the Tories either. As they are actively ****ing my life, as a disabled and not very well off person.

Anything else is a wasted vote really. And near all other parties support 'self-ID', the only party I am aware of that do not back this ridiculous proposal is UKIP, and hell will freeze over before I vote for them.

So yeah, politically homeless. First timer ever, and it does not feel good.

Vote SNP Vicky. Road trip!

Vicky. 11-03-2018 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier (Post 9913985)
Vote SNP Vicky. Road trip!

Sturgeon is one of the worst ones for this 'biology is not real' bull**** :laugh: Scotland are further down the rabbit hole than England is.

Though I would prefer to live in Scotland tbh, at least they are cushioned from the endless cuts to ill people. Only a few miles up the road, but more snow and colder weather..hmm

user104658 11-03-2018 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vicky. (Post 9913996)

Though I would prefer to live in Scotland tbh, at least they are cushioned from the endless cuts to ill people. Only a few miles up the road, but more snow and colder weather..hmm

Not really, unfortunately the benefits system isn't devolved (yet) so Westminster policy still dictates things like DLA / PIP / Universal Credit. I do find that generally, at least, Scottish politicians are far more sympathetic to disabilities, disabled rights and mental health, though, so far fewer hurdles with day to day things and less of the "everyone is just a scrounger!" attitudes. In terms of actual income though, the cuts have been the same.

Vicky. 11-03-2018 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier (Post 9913999)
Not really, unfortunately the benefits system isn't devolved (yet) so Westminster policy still dictates things like DLA / PIP / Universal Credit. I do find that generally, at least, Scottish politicians are far more sympathetic to disabilities, disabled rights and mental health, though, so far fewer hurdles with day to day things and less of the "everyone is just a scrounger!" attitudes. In terms of actual income though, the cuts have been the same.

Ah, I was under the impression that it was different there. ****. I cannot escape then D:

Brillopad 11-03-2018 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 9913820)
Yeh it would be a bit daft to only look at one poll result, it would be better to look at the last ten or fifteen, which show a large majority of Labour wins, and very few tory wins.
Take into consideration how right-leaning the polls tended to be before the election and brexit too, and the picture looks very different.

I'm a bit confused why you made this thread now? Seems a bit baity if it wasnt supposed to be a discussion on the poll results afterall.

It seems a bit baity does it - are you trying to take this thread off topic again? :rolleyes:

I made it, as I said, to point out the discrepancy between two different polls, and let’s face it a 5% difference is considerable. I believe the poll you posted got it right once which does not make it a predictor of solid standing. At the end of the day time will tell and I look forward to that day - that is how confident I am.

reece(: 11-03-2018 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mystic Mock (Post 9913838)
Interesting that Greens are ahead of UKIP on that poll.

Rightfully so, UKIP are finished from all the inner party leadership chaos and movement to Cons. Greens can only rise :clap1:

reece(: 11-03-2018 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed (Post 9913920)
UKIP have been thrown into the long grass. The Greens are definitely a party I'd support if and when they come up with a decent leader.

Caroline is the best party leader going!

Greg! 11-03-2018 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vicky. (Post 9914003)
Ah, I was under the impression that it was different there. ****. I cannot escape then D:

Some of the worst sanctions and cuts like the bedroom tax are mitigated by the Scottish government, but technically they don't have power over welfare laws (yet)

Ammi 12-03-2018 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vicky. (Post 9913981)
I am ****ed if there is another election soon. I cannot vote Labour as they are a mess and are actively trying to remove the rights of women. I cannot vote for a party that are trying to remove my rights, and the rights of my daughter..obviously.

However I cannot vote for the Tories either. As they are actively ****ing my life, as a disabled and not very well off person.

Anything else is a wasted vote really. And near all other parties support 'self-ID', the only party I am aware of that do not back this ridiculous proposal is UKIP, and hell will freeze over before I vote for them.

So yeah, politically homeless. First time ever, and it does not feel good.

..I guess how I’m thinking about it, Vicky...is it won’t be a ‘wasted vote’ for me even though it won’t have any impact on a government at this moment in time or in any near future in my lifetime, quite possibly...but unless those ‘wasted votes’ also happen and grow more and more in their collective thoughts...?...then there will only be two possibilities to consider and the same potential dilemma as generations go on etc...so it’s more a ‘future vote’ of potential options as opposed to a ‘wasted vote’...a future of more balance and centre that we need so much...

Vicky. 12-03-2018 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ammi (Post 9915425)
..I guess how I’m thinking about it, Vicky...is it won’t be a ‘wasted vote’ for me even though it won’t have any impact on a government at this moment in time or in any near future in my lifetime, quite possibly...but unless those ‘wasted votes’ also happen and grow more and more in their collective thoughts...?...then there will only be two possibilities to consider and the same potential dilemma as generations go on etc...so it’s more a ‘future vote’ of potential options as opposed to a ‘wasted vote’...a future of more balance and centre that we need so much...

Yeah I guess. the lib dems seemed to be creeping up as a realistic option, until Clegg ****ed all the students and went back on the one pledge that probably won them more votes than any other pledge combined :laugh:

I think I will probably end up voting independent, come voting time, if we have any independant candidates (from memory last time we had 4 labour 3 tory a lib dem and a ukip). No chance at all, but I would not really feel right not voting AT ALL given everything people have done to ensure I have the option to vote

bots 12-03-2018 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vicky. (Post 9915643)
Yeah I guess. the lib dems seemed to be creeping up as a realistic option, until Clegg ****ed all the students and went back on the one pledge that probably won them more votes than any other pledge combined :laugh:

I think I will probably end up voting independent, come voting time, if we have any independant candidates (from memory last time we had 4 labour 3 tory a lib dem and a ukip). No chance at all, but I would not really feel right not voting AT ALL given everything people have done to ensure I have the option to vote

Sounds like an ideal opportunity for you to stand yourself Vicky. Go for it, you have plenty time to prepare

Vicky. 12-03-2018 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide (Post 9915646)
Sounds like an ideal opportunity for you to stand yourself Vicky. Go for it, you have plenty time to prepare

LOL **** that. I don't have the time, nor the patience to deal with all of that stuff :D Especially with my illness. If by some miracle I did get elected, I could not travel to parliament or whatevers needed. Plus my area has been under the same labour MP for the past like 30 years or something, so until he dies I dont think anyone has a chance, and even when he does, it will pass to another Labour I think. I prefer to moan, and maybe sign a petition every now and again.

My politics..probably wouldn't be too popular either. I wouldn't think. I am too all over the place on various topics

DemolitionRed 12-03-2018 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reece(: (Post 9914751)
Caroline is the best party leader going!

I like Caroline Lucas and I like her policies (that's why I like the Green Party) but she's not imo leadership material. She's good at fighting her parties corner but she doesn't have a strong enough voice for people to take much notice of.

As for economics, the Greens have the best economists in the land. Both the Cons and Labour have adopted many of the Greens ideas regarding fiscal policy.


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