A Fatal Tipping of the Balance
 

I have only been watching Big Brother since BB9 and only been frequenting this forum since the start of BB10 so this is my first post. Be kind.

I was finally moved to register and post after watching Noirin's nominations this morning because I think her nomination decision was a pivotal moment for the House.

If Noirin had voted for Sree instead of Halfwit*, it would have been a three-way vote on Friday between Halfwit, Angel and Sree. Sree would have gone.

If Noirin had voted for Sree instead of Angel, it would have been a straight vote between Sree and Halfwit on Friday. Sree would have been annihilated, getting 90% or more.

The significance of all this is as follows: with Marcus immune and Charlie not allowed to nominate this week a small window of opportunity opened up for the Nerds. However, that window has now closed, one of the Nerds will go this Friday and they will be fatally weakened.

I am assuming that the Nasties will continue to nominate Halfwit each week, and I believe they will consistently force a vote between Halfwit and one of the other Nerds (starting almost certainly with Marcus next week). Thus the public will not be given the opportunity for some time to break up the Nasties and weaken their block voting power. Basically, from this week the Nasties are going to be picking off the Nerds one by one by forcing the public to choose between Halfwit and one of the other Nerds.

Now this by itself may be interesting to watch. The trouble is that the Nasties' internal dynamic is very boring. They are made more interesting by their conflict with the Nerds. But as the Nerds leave the Nasties become less and less interesting to watch.

Eventually we are going to be left, I think, with Halfwit and the Nasties in the House. At that point the public will get the opportunity to vote out a Nasty each week until the final. I must say I think it is a real possibility that Halfwit may face the public vote every single week and yet still end up the winner of BB10.

Obviously I am making a very far-reaching prediction here and there are a number of variables which may serve to change things. Firstly, Sree. Sree is not really a proper member of the Nasties, he is more Lisa's little poodle. The Nasties could easily turn on him, in which case he would be utterly destroyed in the public vote. Secondly, Siavash. Siavash is, I think, a bit of a wild card. I think the Nasties actually rather like him but are highly suspicious of his friendship with Marcus. They may be more reluctant to vote for him, however. Thirdly, Rodrigo is not really a proper member of either group, although I think he leans more towards the Nerd camp. I am not sure how he is going to proceed, although he appears to really dislike Sree. Fourthly, and the most difficult to predict: there is always the possibility of a serious internal disagreement within the Nasties which could change the situation entirely. There is, however, absolutely no sign of that.

* Noirin's nomination of Halfwit instead of Sree is a particularly sore point and close to unforgivable. After Halfwit used his birthday gift to relieve her of the onerous task of putting the glasses and moustache on each day it really was unkind, unpleasant and unjustifiable to then nominate him, especially in the very same week and especially given her many arguments with the rather creepy and unpleasant Sree.

Anyway, sorry for the long post. I have noticed that most of the posts on this forum tend to be rather short so this one might seem a little incongruous.

Welcome to the boards, excellent post :flower:

Excellent post.

I agree with all you have said and it looks, at the moment as though it will go the way you predict! :hello:

I am very very worried about Siavash. The nasties are now going to pick the others off one by one!

Siavash is an interesting one, don't you think? When I saw him on the first evening of BB10, his clothes and manner and the way he went into the house, I was sure I was going to dislike him intensely.

However, far from being annoyingly arrogant, he seems like a rather pleasant sort of guy.

The guy is a legend tbh, and I'm not just saying that cause I got good odds on him :laugh:

Sadly though, he WILL lose because the Nerd powerboase has gone and the Nasties see him as an outsider to be picked off. Sure, a likeable outsider, but an outsider nonetheless.

Very nice post BB22, well contrived.

The nasties transpareny is beyond a joke, they will indeed do everything in their power to get rid of their rivals, ie Freddie, Angel, Marcus and Siavash and then what are we left with?

Once Lisa and Co's rivals have gone they will have no one left to bicker about and life in the house will be so bland viewers will switch off in their droves.

I acutally like Halfwit, he is one of the few who seem normal. A man with brains and speaks clearly.

That is very ture and when Noirin nominated freddie last night i was shocked that is wasnt sree as she complains about him pestering her and following her about, but she doesnt nominate him ? strange if he was annopying her as much as she says then she would surely want him out of the house, but by not nominating him it suggests to me that she likes the attension !!!

This seems to happen a lot in BB and its very frustrating to watch as the public is powerless.. 2 of the favourites face eviction this week while the most disliked remain.

Last year was similar although the opposite group seemed to have the power with B Block picking off the other HMs.

BB needs to intervene with some twist as the public is powerless. BB gave them a small oppurtunity this week but they missed it :(

I agree entirely. The Nasties are rather dull. It is only their secret war against Halfwit and the others that is making them vaguely watchable. If it is just that group remaining in the House then things are going to be rather boring.

A very partizan view of the world from a Freddie fan.

The fact is that Noirin doesn't like Halfwit (and nor do most of the HM's) and since she has nominated him every week since the start, she was perfectly entitled to nominate him again. Noirin did nothing that Dogface, Karly, Kris, Lisa, Rodrigo and Sree didn't do and that was to nominate the most annoying housemate.

Noirins nomination was no more significant than that of Lisa's for Freddie and Noirin didn't owe Freddie any saving favours. The fact that Freddie removed Noirin's "glasses" was done for his own benefit as much as Noirin's, and deserved no more thanks than when Noirin cooks Freddies dinner every night.

When you are a Freddie fan you can twist the truth any way you like, but in reality there are many views of the house dynamics.

It only takes a little bit of imagination to understand why Noirin didn't nominate Sree, and her reasons have been consistent week after week.

I have to say, I am a Noirin fan but I was very disapointed that she didn't nominate Sree and that(even though I don't particularly like Freddie) that she did nominate Freddie. remember when he used his gift to let Noirin not have to draw on the glasses, I believe her words to him were"Thanks I owe you one" :devil:

Sorry to hear you think the truth (which I am sure you believe you have a firm grasp of!) is being twisted.

I wouldn't say I am particularly a "Freddie fan" actually, although I have warmed to him given his underdog status in the House, so I think you are rather "twisting" my motivations in order to explain why I might have a different view of things to you.

As for Noirin, I think you are drastically over-simplifying the situation. You are correct that she has consistently nominated Halfwit and failed to nominate Sree but of course there has been a certain narrative to the last week or so in which the relationship between her and Sree appears to have deteriorated drastically and I think it is fair for people to expect changing relationships to be reflected in a person's pattern of nominations. No?

Whatever Halfwit's motivations in granting her his birthday gift I remain committed to the idea that it was a rather base thing to do to nominate him this week.

That is a very good first post, and welcome to the forum (Im more than happy with the long posts and discussions so please bring it on! (sorry quick Kirsten Dunst flashback) Hmmmmmm.

I think the point I quoted is of key significance. I do fear for this years BB.

They have missed the window, if one of the 'cool' group was up and lost to Freddie then things might have changed.

Now, though, I fear its too late (cue dramatic music so that we pay attention).

That is a very good first post, and welcome to the forum (Im more than happy with the long posts and discussions so please bring it on! (sorry quick Kirsten Dunst flashback) Hmmmmmm.

I think the point I quoted is of key significance. I do fear for this years BB.

They have missed the window, if one of the 'cool' group was up and lost to Freddie then things might have changed.

Now, though, I fear its too late (cue dramatic music so that we pay attention). [/quote]

I think the only way they can change the dynamics of the group now is to send some new people in fast to shake things up abit

Whilst Im not trying to speak for BB22, it was considered to be the tipping point by the OP, and that the whole group dynamics in the house are off-balance with one group having nearly all the say that happens, and that this group of its self, without anyone else is going to be dull to watch.

Noirin is just the tipping point, not the problem itself.

I think the only way they can change the dynamics of the group now is to send some new people in fast to shake things up abit [/quote]

Providing they don't get picked off by the same group.

The 'Nerds' won't vote as a group like the others, they'll vote for who they want to down to their own thoughts rather than what seems a group collective. As such even with new housemates they are still all likely to be nominated in turn.

[

I think the only way they can change the dynamics of the group now is to send some new people in fast to shake things up abit [/quote]

Providing they don't get picked off by the same group.

The 'Nerds' won't vote as a group like the others, they'll vote for who they want to down to their own thoughts rather than what seems a group collective. As such even with new housemates they are still all likely to be nominated in turn. [/quote]

Maybe but you never know, Some new guy could come in and steal Sophie from Kris this would surely split the group

I hope you're right, I really do.

Maybe I'm just grasping at straws though!!

It is not a complex situation. Not many Housemates like Freddie and find him annoying; they simply want rid of him (despite the fact the the public bizzarly support him). Noirin has the right to nominate him equally as much as any other HM and has done so week after week.

You are implying that a single televised event of Freddie removing Noirin's glasses should have altered Noirin's perception of Halfwit. The premise is based on a complete lack of understanding of human relationships. We do not know whether Noirin repaid the favour in any other way (perhaps giving him a beer or cooked a meal for him) and your pre-occupation that she should alter her view of Freddie is just not realistic. To marry Freddies "favour" with an insistance that Noirin should suddenly like Freddie and not nominate him is as equally invalid as any suggestion that Lisa shouldn't have nominated him after Freddie gave her one of his ciggies.

Every HM every day will appear to contradict themselves by doing favours or trading insults with others, but when it comes to nominations, the HM's simply state who they don't want in the house.

It is not for the mere public to tell the HM's who they should get along with and who they should get rid of; they are quite capable of discerning for themselves who to nominate.

It IS partizan of you to suggest that an HM should or should not have nominated for X reason, but since we, the public, never get to see the whole picture, we have to assume that ANY HM has the perfect right to nominate anyone and getting mad about it for reason X, is simply lacking understanding.

Whist Noirin has temporarily fallen out with Sree whilst she reasses her relationship with him, it is also crazy to suggest that any minor skirmish that has been televised should result in a sudden attack from Noirin on her once closish friend. Noirin sympathises with Sree's personality and didn't wish to nominate him.

Rather than attack Sree, she chose to turn the other cheek.

That is simply her own choice.

If big brother doesnt throw some new housemates in soon, after angel is voted out i think im not going to watch anymore.

Excellent posts, but now I'm suffering word blindness

:dance: