[BB22]

I have only been watching Big Brother since BB9 and only been frequenting this forum since the start of BB10 so this is my first post. Be kind.

I was finally moved to register and post after watching Noirin's nominations this morning because I think her nomination decision was a pivotal moment for the House.

If Noirin had voted for Sree instead of Halfwit*, it would have been a three-way vote on Friday between Halfwit, Angel and Sree. Sree would have gone.

If Noirin had voted for Sree instead of Angel, it would have been a straight vote between Sree and Halfwit on Friday. Sree would have been annihilated, getting 90% or more.

The significance of all this is as follows: with Marcus immune and Charlie not allowed to nominate this week a small window of opportunity opened up for the Nerds. However, that window has now closed, one of the Nerds will go this Friday and they will be fatally weakened.

I am assuming that the Nasties will continue to nominate Halfwit each week, and I believe they will consistently force a vote between Halfwit and one of the other Nerds (starting almost certainly with Marcus next week). Thus the public will not be given the opportunity for some time to break up the Nasties and weaken their block voting power. Basically, from this week the Nasties are going to be picking off the Nerds one by one by forcing the public to choose between Halfwit and one of the other Nerds.

Now this by itself may be interesting to watch. The trouble is that the Nasties' internal dynamic is very boring. They are made more interesting by their conflict with the Nerds. But as the Nerds leave the Nasties become less and less interesting to watch.

Eventually we are going to be left, I think, with Halfwit and the Nasties in the House. At that point the public will get the opportunity to vote out a Nasty each week until the final. I must say I think it is a real possibility that Halfwit may face the public vote every single week and yet still end up the winner of BB10.

Obviously I am making a very far-reaching prediction here and there are a number of variables which may serve to change things. Firstly, Sree. Sree is not really a proper member of the Nasties, he is more Lisa's little poodle. The Nasties could easily turn on him, in which case he would be utterly destroyed in the public vote. Secondly, Siavash. Siavash is, I think, a bit of a wild card. I think the Nasties actually rather like him but are highly suspicious of his friendship with Marcus. They may be more reluctant to vote for him, however. Thirdly, Rodrigo is not really a proper member of either group, although I think he leans more towards the Nerd camp. I am not sure how he is going to proceed, although he appears to really dislike Sree. Fourthly, and the most difficult to predict: there is always the possibility of a serious internal disagreement within the Nasties which could change the situation entirely. There is, however, absolutely no sign of that.

* Noirin's nomination of Halfwit instead of Sree is a particularly sore point and close to unforgivable. After Halfwit used his birthday gift to relieve her of the onerous task of putting the glasses and moustache on each day it really was unkind, unpleasant and unjustifiable to then nominate him, especially in the very same week and especially given her many arguments with the rather creepy and unpleasant Sree.

Anyway, sorry for the long post. I have noticed that most of the posts on this forum tend to be rather short so this one might seem a little incongruous.