[Calderyon]

Jedward 5/6 - Shortening
James C 7/2
Kim 9/2 - Drifting
Coleen 7 - Shortening
Bianca 25
Nicola 33

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebr...brother/winner

Jedward & Coleen shortening, Kim drifting across the board.

[Niamh.]

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

[Vanessa]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

Oddds shortening is good. Means Jedward have more chance of winning!

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

Shortening means (technically*) that the bookies think they are more likely to win and you will therefore get less money back for whatever you put on. Drifting means the opposite - less likely to win, more money back if they do.

* I say TECHNICALLY because bookies also manipulate odds for other reasons, for example, to attract bets to a selection that they do NOT think will win. They will cut the odds on a horse / team / BB housemate etc. to make people think "Ooooooh they must be more likely to win I will bet on them!!" when actually that is exactly what the bookie is trying to get you to do...

Odds are also affected by simply how much money has been bet on a selection. The more money has been placed across the country, the more the odds will come in to compensate. That said, for something like reality TV, looking at how much money has been bet on a contestant is actually quite a good indicator of how popular they are.

[Niamh.]

Originally Posted by Vanessa

Oddds shortening is good. Means Jedward have more chance of winning!

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Shortening means (technically*) that the bookies think they are more likely to win and you will therefore get less money back for whatever you put on. Drifting means the opposite - less likely to win, more money back if they do.

* I say TECHNICALLY because bookies also manipulate odds for other reasons, for example, to attract bets to a selection that they do NOT think will win. They will cut the odds on a horse / team / BB housemate etc. to make people think "Ooooooh they must be more likely to win I will bet on them!!" when actually that is exactly what the bookie is trying to get you to do...

Odds are also affected by simply how much money has been bet on a selection. The more money has been placed across the country, the more the odds will come in to compensate. That said, for something like reality TV, looking at how much money has been bet on a contestant is actually quite a good indicator of how popular they are.

This is why I don't gamble

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

This is why I don't gamble

It's why I *only* gamble on reality events, if you follow twitter / FB "buzz" you can get some great odds. Helen Wood is still my best coup . 33/1. Bear was also an easy win with good odds, as was (sadly!) Trump . I haven't bet this year, there's not a huge amount of value left on the board, I wish I had bet on Jedward a few weeks ago . I'd only recommend Kim at 9/2 and maybe a small bet on Bianca because of all the weirdness... ... ...

But I actually both hope AND think that the boys will pull it off, and betting odds on isn't worth it (at the moment you don't even double your money on them). The only odds-on BB bet I've ever placed was Gary Busey and I was *****ing my pants watching that finale (I put on Ł110 at 8/11, really stupid bet). Not worth it.

[Niamh.]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

It's why I *only* gamble on reality events, if you follow twitter / FB "buzz" you can get some great odds. Helen Wood is still my best coup . 33/1. Bear was also an easy win with good odds, as was (sadly!) Trump . I haven't bet this year, there's not a huge amount of value left on the board, I wish I had bet on Jedward a few weeks ago . I'd only recommend Kim at 9/2 and maybe a small bet on Bianca because of all the weirdness... ... ...

But I actually both hope AND think that the boys will pull it off, and betting odds on isn't worth it (at the moment you don't even double your money on them). The only odds-on BB bet I've ever placed was Gary Busey and I was *****ing my pants watching that finale (I put on Ł110 at 8/11, really stupid bet). Not worth it.

I suppose betting on Helen atleast mad you happy in some way anyhow

[Calderyon]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

Shortening odds mean that more people are putting money towards that choice than not thus decreasing the value of that choice. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is more likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

Drifting odds meant that less people are putting money towards that choice/target than
some of the others. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is less likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

[Niamh.]

Originally Posted by Calderyon

Shortening odds mean that more people are putting money towards that choice than not thus decreasing the value of that choice. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is more likely to happen than some of the the others that are available in the same betting target/choice.

Drifting odds meant that less people are putting money towards that target than
some of the others. Meaning the people that are betting towards that target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is less likely to happen than some of the the others that are available in the same betting target/choice

Thanks Calderyon

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Calderyon

Shortening odds mean that more people are putting money towards that choice than not thus decreasing the value of that choice. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is more likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

Drifting odds meant that less people are putting money towards that choice/target than
some of the others. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is less likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

In basic terms yes, but with reality shows they're also watching the shows themselves and the press and adjusting accordingly. If someone has a great show / a lot of social media buzz they'll cut the odds quickly regardless of the money that's being placed. The odds setters are slow to react to social media though, and that's where you can win big, by betting before they notice the hype.

[RichardG]

coleen is going to win isn't she, bots were screaming for her last night

in a top two with cosmo

[chuff me dizzy]

Jedward are NOT shortening they have been this price all week ,the betting odds have been very stable for days now,this is why I started a thread about it yesterday ,Jedward are not firm enough favs to say no one can catch them

[user104658]

Originally Posted by chuff me dizzy

Jedward are NOT shortening they have been this price all week ,the betting odds have been very stable for days now,this is why I started a thread about it yesterday ,Jedward are not firm enough favs to say no one can catch them

They are shortening slightly, you could still get evens on them yesterday whereas now they are odds-on across every betting site. Your best price is 10/11. It's not a significant change really but it is still shortening odds. Oddschecker is colour-coded to show exactly that. Blue shortening, red drifting, white unchanged.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by chuff me dizzy

Jedward are NOT shortening they have been this price all week ,the betting odds have been very stable for days now,this is why I started a thread about it yesterday ,Jedward are not firm enough favs to say no one can catch them

I don't bet or gamble on BB but I popped into.a local betting shop on Tuesday to see the CBB odds, Jedward had gone to 10/11 from evens.
If they are now 5/6 that means they are now 10/12 so have shortened slightly again.

Not that betting odds mean much as to BB really.

[Time]

seems like a kim win is looking less likely

[chuff me dizzy]

Originally Posted by Time

seems like a kim win is looking less likely

Dont panic, the odds have hardly moved all week

[user104658]

Helen btw was actually 7/1 on the DAY of the finale, and Ashleigh was 8/15 (almost a dead cert to win). A prime example really of how wrong the odds can be for BB.

[Denver]

I win money aslong as Jedward get top 3

[sampvt]

The smart money this year went early on JC, then it shifted to Kim now its back to Jedward. The bookies have been so wrong this year its hard to find a bet that makes sence but in happy as I took an american to walk, Ray Hay obliged, I took Biance to reach the final and JC to win. I lost one bet on Austin to walk as he went early but my bets are all well covered and im in good profit allready. I still think 9/2 in places for JC is a great bet and I dont know why but i cant see the GBP voting for Jedward, i honestly cant see them getting the middle of the road last minute voters and they have probably lost a lot of the granny votes as well this year due to the arguments.

[user104658]

Originally Posted by sampvt

The smart money this year went early on JC, then it shifted to Kim now its back to Jedward. The bookies have been so wrong this year its hard to find a bet that makes sence but in happy as I took an american to walk, Ray Hay obliged, I took Biance to reach the final and JC to win. I lost one bet on Austin to walk as he went early but my bets are all well covered and im in good profit allready. I still think 9/2 in places for JC is a great bet and I dont know why but i cant see the GBP voting for Jedward, i honestly cant see them getting the middle of the road last minute voters and they have probably lost a lot of the granny votes as well this year due to the arguments.

The thing is... by this logic, Ricky should easily have won summer BB and yet was beaten by Bear.

[Wizard.]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

The thing is... by this logic, Ricky should easily have won summer BB and yet was beaten by Bear.

What time do the markets close? When the finale show starts? before the lines close, or as close as before the last time the vote freezes?

[Amy Jade]

The only time I have ever gambled was Ł20 on Vicky Pattison winning IAC

[Calderyon]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebr...brother/winner

Coleen has overtaken Kim in the odds as the third favorite to win and is about to pass James C. (Already has on some of the markets)

[Wizard.]

Originally Posted by Calderyon

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebr...brother/winner

Coleen has overtaken Kim in the odds as the third favorite to win and is about to pass James C. (Already has on some of the markets)

I read somewhere that bookies can manipulate odds to make people think they're more likely to win, so people will bet on them? I hope Tim Booth does a winner prediction because he predicted Angies, Stacey, Jessica, and Calum's eviction.

[Calderyon]

Originally Posted by Riley.

I read somewhere that bookies can manipulate odds to make people think they're more likely to win, so people will bet on them? I hope Tim Booth does a winner prediction because he predicted Angies, Stacey, Jessica, and Calum's eviction.

He already has.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv/b...g-tips-preview

I think he is wrong though.