[arista]

Originally Posted by MTVN

Think most governments expect to lose seats in local elections so nothing unusual there, the Tories losses weren't disastrous all things considered and won't provide too much cause for concern. A point I heard today was that Michael Foot, William Hague and Ed Miliband all made huge gains in local elections and were then trounced when it came to the general election. Corbyn is celebrating because they only made small losses and, in his own words, 'hung on'. I can't see how Labour can use these results as a basis for optimism at all and most sensible Labour MPs seem to realise that.

Yes they must sort our Corbyn
he wants no Nuke Weapons
His Party in the Bulk
want them.
Thats a General Election Issue
that can not be ignored

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by MTVN

Think most governments expect to lose seats in local elections so nothing unusual there, the Tories losses weren't disastrous all things considered and won't provide too much cause for concern. A point I heard today was that Michael Foot, William Hague and Ed Miliband all made huge gains in local elections and were then trounced when it came to the general election. Corbyn is celebrating because they only made small losses and, in his own words, 'hung on'. I can't see how Labour can use these results as a basis for optimism at all and most sensible Labour MPs seem to realise that.

We didn't have the 5 moderately successful parties in play then however,UKIP were not on the scene bigtime in 2012, they rose at the European elections and then local elections since.

The Conservatives had few seats to lose from the low base they fell to in 2012,Labour had loads to lose from their high base in 2012,when the seats up for election this time were last fought.

They have an optimistic element to them because we now have 5 parties in play in local election and general elections who are all in with a shout of winning seats in both elections.
That was not the case at al in 2012.

So just looking at the average voting figures for last Thursday nationally as to actual votes won in an election, has Labour on 31%,up 2.5% on last years election result,the Conservatives on 30%,that's down over 6% on the election last year.

No way is that optimism for Labour winning an election but already in a year it would be enough to wipe out the overall majority status of the present govt.following that really bad result for Labour last year.
It leaves room for some optimism for Labour in that things are getting better very slowly and less optimism for the govt as things for them are getting worse slowly.
Also Labour have just gained Bristol too from no overall control before,this brings their losses down to only 18 with 48 losses to the Conservatives.

However the 2 by election results on Thursday,where the Conservatives fell much further behind,with UKIP coming a far distant 2nd to Labour in both seats, fills me with more optimism than the local election results do.
Especially with Labour's share of the votes increased or the same as last year,with the Conservatives vote falling away.

It will be a real important result in Tooting now when that by-election is held,since Sadiq Khan is giving up his seat there.
The majority there is a much smaller one and if Labour do as well in that as in the other 3 by-elections they have had already in the last year,that will paint a different picture for more optimism.

[empire]

labour won't win the 2020 election.or any in the next 25 years, the reason why is, that the party is split three ways, with the blairites, the far left, and the centre left, fighting eachother, in the future there might be that the center left labour, will move out and make their own labour party, but they will not get second place in the big elections for the next 20 years, and the main labour party will end up being a third rate party, and a 20 year power vacuum will mean that other parties,snp.plaid cymru,ukip, will just eat into their vote base, you can not blame corbyn for all your problems, because it goes back a long time ago, in the 80s and 90s, because 80s labour was very stale, and 90s new labour went from a working mans party to a red left wing tory party, now its a far left party, and today has a very big ethnic minority vote than it did in the 70s, and they ask why can't they get more white british voters, and they go around in circles, well because of there obsession with racial equality will appeal too one big part of society, but it won't appeal to the other big part of society, and you just lose half of the vote, because you can't call that person, the uneducated class and bigots, corbyn has been in that party a long time, and he knew what happened in the 80s when labour split bady, but the party of the last nineteen years does not appeal to half of working class families anymore, history can repeat itself, but much worst.

[letmein]

Khan is shady as hell and has ties to Islamic extremists. Labour is a disaster under anti-Western, antisemitic, Corbyn. The Left in Britain is a disgrace!

Sadiq Khan slammed for calling moderate Muslim groups ‘Uncle Toms’

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by letmein

Khan is shady as hell and has ties to Islamic extremists. Labour is a disaster under anti-Western, antisemitic, Corbyn. The Left in Britain is a disgrace!

Sadiq Khan slammed for calling moderate Muslim groups ‘Uncle Toms’

b

This has all been proven to be absolute nonsense. You call the left a disgrace because you buy everything said against the left, including what you posted here. Why don't you try and look at both sides of the truth instead of just the bit that gives you ammunition to hopefully shock us all.

[Cherie]

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed

b

This has all been proven to be absolute nonsense. You call the left a disgrace because you buy everything said against the left, including what you posted here. Why don't you try and look at both sides of the truth instead of just the bit that gives you ammunition to hopefully shock us all.

The Uncle Tom quote isn't nonsense is it?

[MTVN]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

We didn't have the 5 moderately successful parties in play then however,UKIP were not on the scene bigtime in 2012, they rose at the European elections and then local elections since.

The Conservatives had few seats to lose from the low base they fell to in 2012,Labour had loads to lose from their high base in 2012,when the seats up for election this time were last fought.

They have an optimistic element to them because we now have 5 parties in play in local election and general elections who are all in with a shout of winning seats in both elections.
That was not the case at al in 2012.

So just looking at the average voting figures for last Thursday nationally as to actual votes won in an election, has Labour on 31%,up 2.5% on last years election result,the Conservatives on 30%,that's down over 6% on the election last year.

No way is that optimism for Labour winning an election but already in a year it would be enough to wipe out the overall majority status of the present govt.following that really bad result for Labour last year.
It leaves room for some optimism for Labour in that things are getting better very slowly and less optimism for the govt as things for them are getting worse slowly.
Also Labour have just gained Bristol too from no overall control before,this brings their losses down to only 18 with 48 losses to the Conservatives.

However the 2 by election results on Thursday,where the Conservatives fell much further behind,with UKIP coming a far distant 2nd to Labour in both seats, fills me with more optimism than the local election results do.
Especially with Labour's share of the votes increased or the same as last year,with the Conservatives vote falling away.

It will be a real important result in Tooting now when that by-election is held,since Sadiq Khan is giving up his seat there.
The majority there is a much smaller one and if Labour do as well in that as in the other 3 by-elections they have had already in the last year,that will paint a different picture for more optimism.

You make fair points as always but I think the fundamental point remains that the Tories did about as you would expect a party in their position to do; Labour did worse. And considering the Tories are divided over Europe, they've just had a key minister resign, they've had a poorly received budget and they've had to perform several u-turns then I think they'll be quite relieved they did not do worse. Labour started from a high base true, I'm not sure I buy that there's more competition now though from UKIP and the Greens because the Lib Dems are nowhere near as competitive as they once were and used to pose a greater threat to both the Tories and Labour than they, Ukip and the Greens now all do put together probably. The fact also remains that, as Caroline Flint said, these Labour results are the worst for an opposition party after a general election in 30 years. And considering the Scotland result its clear that Labour are going to have to do much better in England and I can't see that happening.

[Kizzy]

Anyone hear Boris sing 'Ode to joy' he would've been the toast of the Reichsmusiktage.

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by MTVN

You make fair points as always but I think the fundamental point remains that the Tories did about as you would expect a party in their position to do; Labour did worse. And considering the Tories are divided over Europe, they've just had a key minister resign, they've had a poorly received budget and they've had to perform several u-turns then I think they'll be quite relieved they did not do worse. Labour started from a high base true, I'm not sure I buy that there's more competition now though from UKIP and the Greens because the Lib Dems are nowhere near as competitive as they once were and used to pose a greater threat to both the Tories and Labour than they, Ukip and the Greens now all do put together probably. The fact also remains that, as Caroline Flint said, these Labour results are the worst for an opposition party after a general election in 30 years. And considering the Scotland result its clear that Labour are going to have to do much better in England and I can't see that happening.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7019041.html

According to this, "the Tories are down 47 seats compared to 18 for Labour."

That means the Tories lost more seats than Labour.

"Nationally, with results from 123 out of 124 contested councils now in, the Conservatives have 828 seats, down 47 from before Thursday’s local government elections.

Labour, by contrast have 1,289 seats and are down only 18."

Once again, the right wing press have been putting a bad spin on things. Which party lost more seats? Not Labour!

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by MTVN

You make fair points as always but I think the fundamental point remains that the Tories did about as you would expect a party in their position to do; Labour did worse. And considering the Tories are divided over Europe, they've just had a key minister resign, they've had a poorly received budget and they've had to perform several u-turns then I think they'll be quite relieved they did not do worse. Labour started from a high base true, I'm not sure I buy that there's more competition now though from UKIP and the Greens because the Lib Dems are nowhere near as competitive as they once were and used to pose a greater threat to both the Tories and Labour than they, Ukip and the Greens now all do put together probably. The fact also remains that, as Caroline Flint said, these Labour results are the worst for an opposition party after a general election in 30 years. And considering the Scotland result its clear that Labour are going to have to do much better in England and I can't see that happening.

You make equally fair points although I can see some signs of a Lib Dem start to modest gains again in the future.
They on the estimated voting last Thursday rose to 15%,that is quite an improvement for them from the election.
They also took full control of Watford council to.

If the Lib Dems do start to regain any ground and they held up very well where they were before in places like Eastleigh and South Lakeland,then they will be a threat to the Conservatives in the south West again and even across the south.

No one is or should be saying Labour can win the next election outright,however in all 3 by elections there has been,the swing from the Conservatives has been over 5%,Labour needs something like a 9% swing to win an election outright,that is extremely unlikely.

However 2 things for me and this would be my target for labour,to have a new leader for the 2020 election and to target to win of course but to really go for getting to be the largest party status.
That is much nearer achievable in my view and there could easily be another coalition govt from that.

The results last week, leave plenty to build on for that and hopefully also, Labour will have sorted itself out better,especially for post the EU referendum and the now almost certain battle for the Conservative leadership that will ensue from whatever the result may be.

Things change very quickly in politics,it is hard to say or predict what will be the case 1 year from now let alone another 4 years.
Scotland does not bother me in the slightest,Labour have only won 3 elections out of the last 8 general elections with all the seats they had in Scotland for all that time.

As long as those seats and votes are with the SNP,I am content,because SNP votes will never help the Conservatives in any way.
Also I firmly believe that the SNP has in its tally of votes at least 12% to 15% of 'loaned; Labour votes, were the SNP bubble to start to slip,then the recipients of the lost votes would likely be in the main Labour.

Scotland is a very different place now, no more being taken for granted, no more being a dumping ground for Conservative controversial policy testing.
With the SNP, any chance of booting out the Conservatives as the govt of the UK would be done by the SNP.
So Scotland is fine for me as it is.

I can easily see Labour being the largest party in 2020 if they work at that and plan carefully and I can further see the SNP ensuring a Labour led govt or coalition takes over if it is possible to do so.
the SNP can never be the sole govt of the UK,there are only 59 seats in Scotland, and there will be a few less if the boundary changes go through.

This is why I love politics, the unpredictability of it,the forecasts of hundreds of Labour seats to be lost last Thursday,never materialising in any way.
Then the general election last year, no party will get near an overall majority,one did and got one.

The voters are often a fickle lot and they turn very quickly at times, if we leave the EU and all goes downhill for a time, the govt will likely be blamed for ever holding a referendum in the first place.
If we stay in and things are going wrong, the govt will be blamed for recommending the staying in scenario.

So to say any fortunes will be good or bad for either main party by 2020,would be unwise in my view.
However again, looking at right now,from the high base of 2012,Labour did not slip,lost a few votes but held the seats.
From an extremely low base,the Conservatives slipped even further slightly downwards.

Now, what Ed Miliband failed to manage to do was hold onto to his position of 2012 by the time we got to 2015.
If this time round, Labour finds the way to hold onto what they are at now in 2016 right up to 2020.
Even with Labour not building anymore on that,that will then mean this govt is at least well short of an overall majority in 2020,and depending on the actual arithmetic, anything could happen as to who governs.

That is why I can and do afford myself a little optimism after last week but if I was a Conservative still, I would be far less optimistic.

UKIP in my view, if we vote to leave the EU will largely become irrelevant,if we stay in however, they will then likely gain strength moreso if it's a narrow vote to stay in, and could cause all sorts of difficulties in the next general election.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7019041.html

According to this, "the Tories are down 47 seats compared to 18 for Labour."

That means the Tories lost more seats than Labour.

"Nationally, with results from 123 out of 124 contested councils now in, the Conservatives have 828 seats, down 47 from before Thursday’s local government elections.

Labour, by contrast have 1,289 seats and are down only 18."

Once again, the right wing press have been putting a bad spin on things. Which party lost more seats? Not Labour!

Good point! All you hear about is Scotland.....Screw Scotland! Stupid square sausage munching numpties.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7019041.html

According to this, "the Tories are down 47 seats compared to 18 for Labour."

That means the Tories lost more seats than Labour.

"Nationally, with results from 123 out of 124 contested councils now in, the Conservatives have 828 seats, down 47 from before Thursday’s local government elections.

Labour, by contrast have 1,289 seats and are down only 18."

Once again, the right wing press have been putting a bad spin on things. Which party lost more seats? Not Labour!

I agree with MTVN in that Labour should have done better, however many were saying Labour were going to lose hoards of seats and it never happened.
Now it cannot be said that a party is going to do badly and lose hundreds of seats,then say they have done badly when they didn't.

However where MTVN is on the ball, is the govt is in chaos,labour should in the popular vote be running at least around 8 to 10 points ahead of the Conservatives, and they are nowhere near that.
So at this time, the prospects for 2020 do not look encouraging.

That does not mean as I said above too, that gaining the largest party status is likely out of reach for Labour.
Simple gains of 40 to 50 seats would bring that about.

[Kizzy]

Voters aren't fickle, they're thick! All the govt has to do is spin a story 'leak' it to the torygraph and badda bing Labour lose votes :/

[empire]

labour lost its main base voters in scotland, and london is now there main base, but london is a tiny spot, compared to scotland, today's labour is very far left, the tory's pro eu stance, has lost them some big voters to ukip, over the last few years, and both labour and the tory's are in the same bad way now, and nationalism is rising in europe, and it has been in the last ten years, there many here in the uk that are, fed up with both parties, and don't bother voting for them,

[DemolitionRed]

Corbyn has only been Labour leader for 8 months. Its another 40 months before we choose a new PM. I think its far too early to be making predictions.

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by Cherie

The Uncle Tom quote isn't nonsense is it?

The way its been quoted in the Metro? Yes, absolutely. Its a standing joke in the Muslim communities round here that Sadiq Khan is an uncle Tom and Khan himself accepts that any Muslim working within British politics including himself, will be seen as uncle Toms. What he saying in that video is, he can't only speak and listen to people who think like he does.

[bots]

Well I asked Joey what would be seen as a bad result for labour before the counting started, so its not really fair to move the goalposts now wrt it being a good/bad result even if i want to

One can never read too much into by elections mid term, particularly given that one was the wife of the elected mp, so I set them to one side. The SNP aren't going to go away any time soon, and for some reason they are seen as the protector of the Scottish people, so Labour will do very well to get more than a handful of seats from Scotland at the next GE. Given that traditional base is gone, it means that labour have to make inroads into the traditional english tory vote if they are to even stand a chance of getting even with the tories, let alone forming a majority government.

With the best will in the world, those voters are not going to switch over with seriously left wing policies, its just not going to happen, so while the results were not bad for labour, they are just not going to capture sufficient voters from the tories to seriously consider being a majority government. They will need to move much much closer to the center ground.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

Well I asked Joey what would be seen as a bad result for labour before the counting started, so its not really fair to move the goalposts now wrt it being a good/bad result even if i want to

One can never read too much into by elections mid term, particularly given that one was the wife of the elected mp, so I set them to one side. The SNP aren't going to go away any time soon, and for some reason they are seen as the protector of the Scottish people, so Labour will do very well to get more than a handful of seats from Scotland at the next GE. Given that traditional base is gone, it means that labour have to make inroads into the traditional english tory vote if they are to even stand a chance of getting even with the tories, let alone forming a majority government.

With the best will in the world, those voters are not going to switch over with seriously left wing policies, its just not going to happen, so while the results were not bad for labour, they are just not going to capture sufficient voters from the tories to seriously consider being a majority government. They will need to move much much closer to the center ground.

I forgot you asked me what a bad result for Labour would be.

I am starting to think it may well be that the days of good and maybe too, any overall majority govts are going.

These are struggling with a 12 overall majority and that was unexpected by all Parties and voters alike anyway.

It will be far harder for labour to get any overall majority without Scottish seats admittedly, however for me the fact the SNP will never likely back the Conservatives is good enough for me and I also do think the SNP do a good job in Scotland.

IT isn't really fair to dismiss good results in any elections,especially 3 of them,as to the by-elections, they still have to be won.
Also UKIP were making great play as to both Oldham and Ogmore, yes they came 2nd but miles behind in 2nd.

True in Sheffield the winner is the wife of the deceased former MP but in the other 2 by elections in the last year in Ogmore and Oldham, Labour held their share of the vote or increased it and the fact is that Conservatives fell further behind in them.
Had Labour barely won them or even lost one, people would certainly be shouting off about that.

Reasonable turnouts too in all for by-elections as well.

A good test is coming up in the future, in Tooting, Sadiq Khan's seat,his majority was under 3,000.
If Labour win that again and do really well, 4 by-elections cannot be dismissed.

What is needed is a by-election in a Conservative held seat.

I am under no illusion at all that Labour can win in 2020 outright but I still can see them reaching a point of pushing close to being, or just getting there as to being the largest party.

This however is not mid term, it is only one year after an overall majority victory for this govt.

The coalition was the govt before, and the Lib Dems were slaughtered in the election last year and the Conservatives won.
It is then actually just past this govts own first year of govt.

[Cherie]

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed

The way its been quoted in the Metro? Yes, absolutely. Its a standing joke in the Muslim communities round here that Sadiq Khan is an uncle Tom and Khan himself accepts that any Muslim working within British politics including himself, will be seen as uncle Toms. What he saying in that video is, he can't only speak and listen to people who think like he does.

The video is from 2009, the point of the comment by Metro is Khans hypocrisy at slating Livingstone for using racial slurs while happy to use them himself

It’s unfortunate timing. Days ago, Mr Khan condemned the use of the term Uncle Tom while criticising Ken Livingstone for comments he described as ‘appalling and disgusting’.

Now two Labour councillors are suspended for anti-Israeli Facebook posts
Last night, a spokesman for Mr Khan said last night that he ‘regrets’ using the term.

not sure what the standing joke in your area has to do with anything, apart from being tasteless.