[spintronic]

Originally Posted by Claymores

What you say is sensible (albeit that 'welching' on as deal made on national TV does seem highly unprincipled!).

I'm having more laffs today at certain Aaronites pointing the finger at Alex with the suggestion she'll likely 'welch' and being very judgemental of her character. It seems that some were unaware that Aaron had made a further agreement with Jay to split the winner's £50k on a 30/20 basis, and when questioned about Lord Aaron's likely actions, the attitude has often been that 'he should keep it'.

The double-standards are just such a giggle.

It's as simple as this.

1) BB knew Aaron was ahead in the polls, & split the 100k to spite *him*.
2) IF;


2a) Everyone keeps their word.
2b) If Everyone welches.
2c) If Alex splits & Aaron welches.
2d) If Aaron splits & Alex welches.

2a)
Arron = £30,950
Jay = £29,500
Alex = 10k
Tom = 10k
Louise = £9,500 (And a 200k photoshoot like rebeckah, which she won't split)

2b)
Aaron = £50,950
Jay = £14,500
Alex = 30k & nice shoes.
Louise = £3,500 (And a 200k photoshoot like rebeckah, which she won't split)
Tom = £10 & a nice watch.

2c)
Aaron = £50,950
Jay = £14,500 or
Jay = £9,500 (If he also splits) which [He wouldn't given that scenario]
Alex = 10k (Or 20k if Jay doesn't split. As she then won't give louise any)
Louise = £3,500 or (£9,500 depending on Jay) + 200k Photoshoot.
Tom = 10k
2d)
Arron = £30,950
Jay = £34,500
Alex = £30,00 & shoes
Tom = £10 & watch
Louise = £3,500 (And a 200k photoshoot like rebeckah, which she won't split)


Its a "Prisoner dilema" scenario.

With the grinder that Aaron will *NOW* realise he SHOULD have got the full 100k.


But we know 2 things about Aaron.

A) He is smart.
B) He liked Alex (as a little sister)

Given that in scenarios;

2a, 2c & 2d. Jay has *MORE* money than Alex.

He will try to avoid *ANY* outcome that Gives Jay more money than Alex.

Given that 2d has two nasty affects.

1) Jay has more than Alex.
2) Jay has more than Aaron. (Oh yes, Jay has MORE than Aaron)

We know he will avoid 2d like cancer.

2a ALSO gives Jay more than Alex. So he won't be doing that either.

His ***ONLY*** options are,

2b & 2c.

Given they are both scenarios where he *HAS* to welch.

The "Nash Equilibrium" for Aaron is to --------> Welch.