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There are some tory seats that will never vote labour no matter what the political situation, and the same is true for labour. It always comes down to the marginal seats. Bear in mind that the effect of tory mp's resigning works both ways. Many voters could say lets give the new candidate a chance. They may feel they are getting the old Tory party back rather than the ukip lite they currently have.

The other thing is that media just isn't consumed the way it used to be. People tend to only watch outlets that reflect and reinforce their own political views. It's like fox news and msnbc in America. In those circumstances polling means less and less


This all leads me to believe that it will be a much closer contest than people/mainstream media think. I think it will be very close to a repeat of the Theresa May election leading to a tiny majority for the tories, because electorally, the tories have an advantage in the way constituencies are configured that put the advantage with the tories before a vote is even cast

The other thing to remember is that it is a summer election. That is the best time to get a tory vote