[Nedusa]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

I don't think this debate will matter a great deal really Kizzy, for me the way I see it is there will be no referendum as to the EU from any party and all the party leaders know that too.

Firstly, UKIP will never in my opinion get to 23% in the polls where they would need to be just to even pick up likely 3 or 4 seats max.
The Lib Dems will nver back a referendum vote as to the EU unless they were sure it would result in an 'IN' vote.

Ed Miliband has ensured he would not have to have a referendum as in reality it is doubful at this time that the EU would embark on any new treaties that involved power transfers from Countries,so he is covered.

David Cameron is well aware I believe that he will never get to the 39/40% level in the polls and have Labour on less than 34% that would even just give him a bare overall majority.
All this hot air as to Europe and the referendum is a desperate attempt to possibly manage to come out again as the largest party in the 2015 election.
Again in that event, no referendum, as he says he will 'only' re-negotiate and hold a referendum if he gets an overall majority.

So no referendum at all from any party in the next parliament is in my view even probable,they all have their get out clauses in place now anyway as to same.

Europe at the heart of election campaigns don't bode well for the ones going on about it.
I have been reading up on the 2001 election again, daft William Hague made that all about saving the pound, he went on an on about it apparantly,stating Labour would join the Euro and the pound would be gone.
The last week was full of 5 days to save the pound, 4 days to save the pound etc;.

he went down to almost as big a defeat as John Major had 4 years before that in 1997,adding barely 1% to his total votes cast for the Conservatives.

Labour lost votes to the Lib Dems in the 2005 election, they have clawed back at least 6 or 7% of that again and that is why they are solidly in the upper 30s of percentages of voting intention.
In 13 years the Conservatives in fact only rose from around 31% in 1997 to just over 36% in 2010.

I cannot see any way they will exceed that figure and even if they and Labour were on 35 or 36% each, that would result in a likely majority Labour Govt when you consider Sinn Fein don't take their seats at Westminster and the SDLP in Northern Ireland would back the Labour party in parliament.

So this debate between Clegg and Farage wll be an interesting sideshow that will in the end have no lasting impact whatsoever, in my opinion.
I repeat again,I do not for one minute believe any party leader either wants to have or will indeed have,(despite all the hot and in my view wasted air from David Cameron and co), any referendum on EU membership in the next parliament.

Good points raised there Joey, I tend to agree with your closing comment that No Govt will actually give the GBP an In/out Referendum to decide our future in the EU.

It is such a complicated subject in fact I doubt even the experts could agree on whether the UK is better or worse off in the long run by staying in the EU.

I think the prevailing political view is that the UK is currently stronger being part of it, a view Ed Miliband seems to share.

So until it becomes patently obvious to all interested parties ie Govt, Corporate Business etc.. that staying in the EU is damaging Britain I think in the EU we will stay and all talk of referendums will remain just that..ie all talk