[Toy Soldier]

Merriam-Webster dictionary defines a conspiracy theory as;

"A theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators; A theory asserting that a secret of great importance is being kept from the public."

(https://www.merriam-webster.com/dict...iracy%20theory)


But of course, this is a vast over-simplification of something quite psychologically complex. If we want to understand the thinking of the conspiracy theorist, there are a multitude of factors to consider. I've been hobby-reading around this for a couple of weeks and it's actually quite fascinating, and HUGELY relevant in understanding the social and political psychology of the world as we find it in 2021 (US elections, Covid, Climate change etc.). The below is a very good read for those who have the time and inclination. I will warn though it's a very long paper. The excerpt I'm including here believe it or not ( ) is only a small section.

Conspiracy theories appear to provide broad, internally consistent explanations that allow people to preserve beliefs in the face of uncertainty and contradiction. Consistent with this analysis, research suggests that belief in conspiracy theories is stronger under conditions of uncertainty (van Prooijen & Jostmann, 2013). Further, belief in conspiracy theories appears to be stronger when people perceive patterns in randomness (van Prooijen, Douglas, & de Inocencio, 2018; van der Wal, Sutton, Lange, & Braga, 2018; Whitson & Galinsky, 2008; but see Dieguez, Wagner-Egger, & Gauvrit, 2015). Conspiracy belief is also stronger among people who consistently seek patterns and meaning in their environment, such as believers in paranormal and supernatural phenomena (Bruder et al., 2013; Darwin, Neave, & Holmes, 2011; Drinkwater, Dagnall, & Parker, 2012; Leiser, Duani, & Wagner-Egger, 2017; Oliver & Wood, 2014a, 2018). It is also stronger when events are especially large-scale or significant and when small-scale, mundane explanations therefore seem unsatisfactory (Leman & Cinnirella, 2013).

People who overestimate their ability to understand complex causal phenomena are also prone to conspiracy beliefs (Vitriol & Marsh, 2018). Conspiracy beliefs have also been linked to the need for cognitive closure (Marchlewska, Cichocka, & Kossowska, 2018; Leman & Cinnirella, 2013), especially when events lack a clear official explanation. Conspiracy beliefs have also been linked to feelings of boredom (Brotherton & Eser, 2015). However, conspiracy theories might appear to satisfy some epistemic motives at the expense of others. For example, conspiracy belief has been linked to the conjunction fallacy (Brotherton & French, 2015; Dagnall, Denovon, Drinkwater, Parker, & Clough, 2017), which is an error of probabilistic reasoning whereby people overestimate the likelihood of co-occurring events (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983).

Other researchers have shown that projection of one’s own personal beliefs onto others is associated with conspiracy belief—that is, the belief that “they conspire” is in part the 8 Douglas et al. result of the belief that “I would conspire” (Douglas & Sutton, 2011). Swami, Voracek, Stieger, Tran, and Furnham (2014; see also Ståhl & van Prooijen, 2018) found that lower levels of analytic thinking predicted conspiracy beliefs. Mikušková (2017) found that student teachers high in conspiracy beliefs were more likely to score lower in rational thinking style. Douglas, Sutton, Callan, Dawtry, and Harvey (2016) found that hypersensitive agency detection — the tendency to attribute agency and intentionality where it does not (or is unlikely to) exist — predicts conspiracy beliefs (see also Brotherton & French, 2015; van der Tempel & Alcock, 2015). McHoskey (1995) found that conspiracy beliefs may be in part a product of biased assimilation—accepting information that confirms one’s views and scrutinizing information that disconfirms one’s views (see also Thorson, 2015).

Other cognitive processes linked to conspiracy beliefs involve a tendency to accept epistemically unwarranted beliefs (Lobato, Mendoza, Sims, & Chin, 2014), a quasi-religious mentality (Franks, Bangerter, & Bauer 2013; Wagner-Egger, Delouvee, Gauvrit, & Dieguez, 2018), and lower levels of intelligence (Stieger, Gumhalter, Tran, Voracek, & Swami, 2013). Finally, conspiracy beliefs have been linked to factors such as nonclinical delusional thinking (Dagnall, Drinkwater, Parker, Denovan, & Parton, 2015) and schizotypy (Barron, Morgan, Towell, Altemeyer, & Swami, 2014; Bruder et al., 2013; Darwin et al., 2011; Swami, Pietschnig, Tran, Nader, Stiener, & Voracek, 2013; van der Tempel & Alcock, 2015). Overall, there is evidence that conspiracy theories appear to appeal to individuals who seek accuracy and/or meaning, but perhaps lack the cognitive tools or experience problems that prevent them from being able to find accuracy and meaning via other more rational means.

The full paper takes a much deeper dive into each area of study.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...111/pops.12568