[user104658]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

america is not signed up to the ICC, so the ICC has no hold over america. What i am saying is that more and more countries will leave it, which means it ends up with no jurisdiction. That's a simple reality of what will happen

If it can't seek to investigate potential war crimes without members simply leaving as soon as they disagree with an investigation on politician grounds, then they already have no meaningful jurisdiction.

But we're in late-stage postmodern civilisation so this is par for the course - the social contract breaks down, laws become meaningless. It was ever thus.

Try to impose Covid restrictions like was done successfully in 2020 and see what happens in 2024. The illusion of compliance and authority is all but gone in the western world, whether that's on an individual or geopolitical level.

[bots]

Originally Posted by Soldier Boy

If it can't seek to investigate potential war crimes without members simply leaving as soon as they disagree with an investigation on politician grounds, then they already have no meaningful jurisdiction.

But we're in late-stage postmodern civilisation so this is par for the course - the social contract breaks down, laws become meaningless. It was ever thus.

Try to impose Covid restrictions like was done successfully in 2020 and see what happens in 2024. The illusion of compliance and authority is all but gone in the western world, whether that's on an individual or geopolitical level.

it's like everyone assuming labour will win the next election. The political world is just not the same now as any previous election, so i wouldn't bet on anything

[user104658]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

it's like everyone assuming labour will win the next election. The political world is just not the same now as any previous election, so i wouldn't bet on anything

On that front to be fair there are actual indicators of how it will go in terms of actual meaningful polling/local elections etc... it would take a lot for the Tories to not be absolutely slammed at the GE. Public tide has turned - they're no longer a fashionable choice, and no longer have the "glory hunter" effect (i.e. the people who will simply vote for whichever party they think is going to win, so that they can claim the victory and celebrate the win).

I'm not convinced it'll be a Labour landslide though, probably looking at a minority government, a coalition less likely. The main difference is that I don't think there'll be a clear major opposition party - it'll be Labour in power and a gaggle of opposition parties. Tories not massively ahead of the traditionally smaller parties in terms of seats.

But we will see. As you say, hard to predict anything until a few weeks before the vote at this point. Who bloody knows what ****storm global event will have kicked off by then.