[Liam-]

Only about 30% of the Republican Party are die hard maga cultists as it is, the more sensible republicans voted against him in 2020, I can’t imagine him now being a convicted felon would make them vote for him again now

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Liam-

Only about 30% of the Republican Party are die hard maga cultists as it is, the more sensible republicans voted against him in 2020, I can’t imagine him now being a convicted felon would make them vote for him again now

I'd agree but you have to balance that against Biden being... if you look at it objectively... somewhere between a joke and terrifying. There's just at this point no denying that he ain't playing with a full deck any more. I don't think he's "senile" but his faculties are massively reduced... people weren't fully aware of that in 2020. He's far too old to do the job. The whole situation is a mess.

[The Slim Reaper]

Originally Posted by Soldier Boy

I'd agree but you have to balance that against Biden being... if you look at it objectively... somewhere between a joke and terrifying. There's just at this point no denying that he ain't playing with a full deck any more. I don't think he's "senile" but his faculties are massively reduced... people weren't fully aware of that in 2020. He's far too old to do the job. The whole situation is a mess.

People will hold their noses at his senility, but I think Gaza is much the bigger issue. His path to victory is always through the young, and PoC. He's screwed the pooch with both of them.

[user104658]

Originally Posted by The Slim Reaper

People will hold their noses at his senility, but I think Gaza is much the bigger issue. His path to victory is always through the young, and PoC. He's screwed the pooch with both of them.

What are their alternatives in the US though? It's not like Trump is falling over himself to support Palestinian children. I suppose turnout could be an issue.

[The Slim Reaper]

Originally Posted by Soldier Boy

What are their alternatives in the US though? It's not like Trump is falling over himself to support Palestinian children. I suppose turnout could be an issue.

The alternative is not to vote at all. Trump has come out and said he'll crush the campus protesters on his first day in office, but I think Bidens optics over trumps bluster is always more shocking and is reality.

I have no worries that trump will be able to get more voters than he got last time, but US elections are weird. Hilary lost her election by a total of 25k votes across 3 or 4 states. it doesn't take a lot to happen for those margins to be in play again. That's without understanding that MAGA have been trying to get themselves in influential positions when it comes to election supervision, and signing them off.

I could be completely wrong, but I just don't see Biden winning at this point in time.

[bots]

Originally Posted by The Slim Reaper

The alternative is not to vote at all. Trump has come out and said he'll crush the campus protesters on his first day in office, but I think Bidens optics over trumps bluster is always more shocking and is reality.

I have no worries that trump will be able to get more voters than he got last time, but US elections are weird. Hilary lost her election by a total of 25k votes across 3 or 4 states. it doesn't take a lot to happen for those margins to be in play again. That's without understanding that MAGA have been trying to get themselves in influential positions when it comes to election supervision, and signing them off.

I could be completely wrong, but I just don't see Biden winning at this point in time.

A lot of the reason Hillary didn't win, was because people simply didn't like her, and she was way ahead in the polls, so people just didn't bother voting. As you say, it doesn't take much change at swing states to actually win the election. Let's also not forget the election interference

So, this time round, i actually think its a good thing that the polls are close, because it forces people out to vote, and bidens vote pool should be much larger than trumps, meaning he should win .... but will i put a bet on it? If i'm betting any way, it will be for a Biden win

[The Slim Reaper]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

A lot of the reason Hillary didn't win, was because people simply didn't like her, and she was way ahead in the polls, so people just didn't bother voting. As you say, it doesn't take much change at swing states to actually win the election. Let's also not forget the election interference

So, this time round, i actually think its a good thing that the polls are close, because it forces people out to vote, and bidens vote pool should be much larger than trumps, meaning he should win .... but will i put a bet on it? If i'm betting any way, it will be for a Biden win

Quick point about vote pools and US elections. They always come down to a few votes in a few states. The fact Biden had 8 million more voters last time is an irrelevance. It's about voting pools in very specific counties and cities and there just isn't a lot of room to play with.

I'm not sure what the demographics are in those states, and I can't be arsed to look, so it may mean that Biden losing young and PoC coastal or city voters won't have any impact at all on the races that matter, or it could just completely wipe his chances off the (electoral) map.