[Crimson Dynamo]

Andrew Neil
@afneil

The British commentariat, which doesn’t know much about French politics, is
mesmerised and delighted by the fact the Left came first. It was quite a
surprise.

But the bigger political picture is that France how has a hopelessly hung
parliament from which it will be very difficult to create a stable government
that will last. In that respect we’re back to the Fourth Republic (look it up). It
managed 21 governments in 12 years!!

The bond markets will be over the moon at the prospect. Not. Let’s see what
happens to OATS (French gilts) tomorrow.

Some pertinent facts:

1. A huge chunk of the Left New Popular Front is just as objectionable as the
National Rally.
2. The NPF was cobble together at the last minute and might not last a month never mind create a coalition.
3. Hard to see how the Macron centrists could come to a sensible
arrangement with the NPF. But to split it might leave any coalition short of a majority.
4. France’s ability to form a government now suspect.
5. The National Rally is the big loser of the night but even that doesn’t change the fact that
6. Macron is a busted flush.


Just watch this space.

https://x.com/afneil/status/1810057578937991664