[OnTheRight]

Originally Posted by Zizu

Bookies normally do though or certainly very close - thats why they are all wealthy and the gambling addicts broke


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Plenty of Bookies have gone bankrupt.
And Bookies do not want the favourite to win.

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by OnTheRight

Plenty of Bookies have gone bankrupt.
And Bookies do not want the favourite to win.

Who said anything about Bookies wanting favourites to win ?

They simply calculate the odds accordingly


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[OnTheRight]

Originally Posted by Zizu

Who said anything about Bookies wanting favourites to win ?

They simply calculate the odds accordingly


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They always want the fav to lose. There will be massive liabilities on the fav.

[Crimson Dynamo]

An Ali win would be so bad for BB

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Crimson Dynamo

An Ali win would be so bad for BB

…. and in the real world …


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[moon_peach]

Originally Posted by GoldHeart

Can it really change much in 2 days though

Sometimes it can. Just checked now and on oddschecker Ali’s at around 73% odds and Marcello 18%, so the gap has widened after that ep (which I haven’t seen yet so idk why.) If Ali’s odds stay that high and she doesn’t win then they’ll have really gotten it wrong!

[GoldHeart]

Originally Posted by moon_peach

Sometimes it can. Just checked now and on oddschecker Ali’s at around 73% odds and Marcello 18%, so the gap has widened after that ep (which I haven’t seen yet so idk why.) If Ali’s odds stay that high and she doesn’t win then they’ll have really gotten it wrong!

That's my point, Ali is winning no matter what.

Painfully predictable,and a horrible result.

[Bronzo]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

Based on current odds here the % chance of likely to win:

Ali - 65.20%
Marcello - 20%
Emma - 7.7%
Hanah - 7.7%
Nathan - 2.9%
Segun - 2%

Helen winning at 13.3% and even Luke at just over 20, shows it’s not a complete dead cert. It’s when some Cody reaches 70+% they become a dead cert imo.

[joeysteele]

The thing that's different now though is you only get 5 votes at a time
That removes the high level of extra phone voting there was before.
When you could hammer your phones endlessly voting for someone or against someone too.

This app voting limits the amount of votes cast now.
Plus the opportunity to target even probably.

[eternal]

I'd be happy with Hanah, Marcello or Emma winning it. I wouldn't mind Nathan either as he has been entertaining but his showmance and nastiness at times has brought him down.

Segun and Ali should be nowhere near it. Neither have brought any humour or entertainment to the house. Segun is a nice guy but spineless and Ali is straight up awful.

[Benjamin]

To win

Ali - 4/11
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 9/1
Hanah 12/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 40/1

[bots]

that order shows nathan and segun with the lowest votes which ties in with them being bottom 4 in the vault

[GoldHeart]

Originally Posted by bots

that order shows nathan and segun with the lowest votes which ties in with them being bottom 4 in the vault

I suspected that, but then I'm kept thinking Nathan was higher up.

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

To win

Ali - 4/11
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 9/1
Hanah 12/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 40/1

For anyone unsure …

You have to pay £11 in order to possibly win £4 - betting on Ali


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[Benjamin]

Originally Posted by bots

that order shows nathan and segun with the lowest votes which ties in with them being bottom 4 in the vault

No you can’t use the odds for the finishing order. They rarely reflect that.

[Benjamin]

To win

Ali - 4/9
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 10/1
Hanah 14/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 50/1

[moon_peach]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

To win

Ali - 4/9
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 10/1
Hanah 14/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 50/1

Can I ask Benjamin, is there any one bookies that tends to be more accurate than the others? I know they all seem to offer slightly different odds

[Benjamin]

Originally Posted by moon_peach

Can I ask Benjamin, is there any one bookies that tends to be more accurate than the others? I know they all seem to offer slightly different odds

Not really. They tend to all have very similar odds.

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by moon_peach

Can I ask Benjamin, is there any one bookies that tends to be more accurate than the others? I know they all seem to offer slightly different odds

Slight tangent but I think OddsChecker assimilates ALL the other bookies’s odds together to give an overall view on things


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[Benjamin]

Originally Posted by Zizu

Slight tangent but I think OddsChecker assimilates ALL the other bookies’s odds together to give an overall view on things


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Correct. It will show you all the bookies odds for a housemate if you expand it. Odds checker will show you the one which will give you the best return out of all of them unless you expand it.

[moon_peach]

Oh thank you both, I didn’t realise that! I’ve been mostly focusing on oddschecker, so good to know that’s probably the best way to do it

[bots]

All we can really take from the odds are that Nathan and Segun are unlikely to win. All the rest of them reflect the money placed on them, which in a system consisting of limited free votes, points to corresponding likely outcomes. It's not possible these days to swamp vote for one house mate, so the odds are far more likely to reflect reality than they did when you had to pay to vote

[Locke.]

10/1 for Ali to win and Hanah to come 2nd is generous

https://sports.williamhill.com/betti...ther/outrights

[GoldHeart]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

To win

Ali - 4/9
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 10/1
Hanah 14/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 50/1

See it's changed again, except for Ali of course.

[BBXX]

I've put a bet on Marcello to soften the blow by £35 if he wins.