[bots]

Well, that's not true is it. The SNP will not form any alliance with either labour or the tories. The tories will not form a coalition with anyone that doesnt support an EU referendum vote which means UKIP is their option, so unless we bring in the very minor parties, the only real option for labour is the lib dems.

[Kizzy]

You can't predict what anyone will do, it's all based on presumption isn't it?

[arista]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

I would be happy with a Labour/ SNP alliance don't get me wrong, what I'm saying is it's all whipping up mass hysteria that even if there were these 50+ SNP members in the UK parliament it wouldn't be catastrophic... anything that is proposed by anyone is voted on they aren't going to get anything passed on 50 votes are they?
It's all just tory scaremongering as they are terrified of having to relinquish their stranglehold.

But Your Ed will not
He is the fecking big Scaremonger
your Own Leader

[arista]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

You can't predict what anyone will do, it's all based on presumption isn't it?

Yes

But your Ed has said Locked Door
to the SNP.

So Every news and radio
Debates Your Mess

[MTVN]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

Correct me if I am wrong, but given that labour have turned down the opportunity of any formal alliance with the snp, the snp numbers cannot be used when it comes to deciding who forms a new government. So labour are going to have to win more seats than the tories outright, or hope that the lib dems dont get wiped out and do a coalition with them.

But the Conservatives probably won't be able to get a Queen's speech through parliament even if it had the support of the Lib Dems so they couldn't form a government either. I actually don't know what happens after that, would there be another election or can Miliband then put forward a Queen's speech even if Labour do not have the most seats in the Commons?

Originally Posted by joeysteele

She will need to get a mandate from the Scottish people to ask for one and get the proposal through the Scottish parliament first again too.

The earliest she could try that,which may be unwise to, is in the Holyrood elections next year,she could put in the SNP manifesto for that election the desire to seek another referendum.
Were she then to get an overall majority in the Scottish parliament, she could then demand same from the UK govt; who again however would have to approve such a referendum.

She couldn't just demand one now without a further mandate from the Scottish electorate.
Which is why no referendum is mentioned in the current SNP manifesto for this UK general election.

I think she will get one eventually in the future, she is there as leader for the next 10 years at least I would say.
With a lot of uncertainty about now however, I cannot see her looking for a referendum until after the next UK general election.
I could see an independence proposal being in the SNP manifesto for Holyrood elections in 2021 but not next year 2016.

See I think their showing next week will embolden them to put something in their manifesto saying something like "we will continue fighting for Scottish independence" or just straight up "we will seek a second referendum" and they will take the risk that their popularity has soared so much that, even if that puts some people off, they will still gain a majority quite comfortably

[Kizzy]

'Alex Salmond today pledged there would not be a second Scottish independence referendum for another generation even if he loses Thursday’s contest by a single vote.
The First Minister indicated there would not be another referendum for at least another 18 years, dismissing concerns the separatists would pursue a “never-endum” strategy by calling for another vote as soon as possible.'

I would say this was agreed as a proviso of the 1st referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...eferendum.html

[bots]

Originally Posted by MTVN

But the Conservatives probably won't be able to get a Queen's speech through parliament even if it had the support of the Lib Dems so they couldn't form a government either. I actually don't know what happens after that, would there be another election or can Miliband then put forward a Queen's speech even if Labour do not have the most seats in the Commons?

I'm not sure what happens either. I'm guessing that it then goes back to coalition building, and if no-one can get a majority together then it goes back to an election.

Of course if the tories had a minority government and wanted to push through a queens speech they may just leave out a wad of legislation for the first speech and hope to get more support later on. Then it descends into ineffectual government that can't do anything.

[Kizzy]

What was included in the queens speech last time that actually had any baring on policies implemented?

[MTVN]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

'Alex Salmond today pledged there would not be a second Scottish independence referendum for another generation even if he loses Thursday’s contest by a single vote.
The First Minister indicated there would not be another referendum for at least another 18 years, dismissing concerns the separatists would pursue a “never-endum” strategy by calling for another vote as soon as possible.'

I would say this was agreed as a proviso of the 1st referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...eferendum.html

Sure he said that, but now the political face of Scotland is set to change massively, Salmond is no longer leader and Sturgeon is refusing to rule anything out and now says vague things like 'when the Scottish people decide' which she says could happen in ten years or in fifty. I suspect she hopes they will 'decide' next year. And here's what Salmond's ex-number two said the other day:

The SNP will propose another independence referendum in its Scottish election manifesto, the former deputy leader has said amid fears over the party's influence on Ed Miliband after the election.

Jim Sillars told The Telegraph party members will demand a promise to hold another vote on independence is the “first line” of the SNP’s 2016 Holyrood manifesto.

He said any other move would be “astonishing” and likely trigger a backlash from the tens of thousands of new members who joined after Scots voted to stay in the Union last September.

Reacting to the comments, Nicola Sturgeon indicated the SNP could pledge a second referendum in principle in a future manifesto but said it would not necessarily trigger an immediate vote.

The SNP leader also repeatedly failed to rule out putting a pledge in next year’s manifesto after being grilled on Mr Sillars’s comments during First Minister’s Questions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ader-says.html

[Kizzy]

She may put a pledge in to placate voters, it does not follow she'll deliver and states as such. She can't because the agreement was and is there cannot be one within a generation.

[bots]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

She may put a pledge in to placate voters, it does not follow she'll deliver and states as such. She can't because the agreement was and is there cannot be one within a generation.

That was Salmond's pledge, he stepped down, so its meaningless.

[Kizzy]

No, there's no way he could have agreed to a generation initially if that entailed him being leader for the duration... That would be impossible :/

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

It's a hypothetical question, nobody knows what will happen after the election so all the tory squalling about what ifs is equally as irrelevant by that token.

The Conservatives,well some of their Ministers,(not the whole party,some are even dismayed Cameron is spending so much time fuelling this Scottish/English divisive talk),are furious that the SNP have said they will do all they can to lock the Conservatives out of power if they have the numbers to after the election.

What Ed Miliband has said is he will have no 'formal' deals with the SNP.
He has said if he gets the chance to, he will present a minority Labour govts; Queen's speech to parliament.

IT will then be up to all the other parties to either vote for that Queen's speech,vote against it or abstain, no deals done at all.

If the SNP back that Labour Queen's speech since they have said they will never pave the way for a Conservative led govt;
Then Labour governs as a minority Labour govt: still no deals done.

The SNP get no concessions or deals at all except they don't inflict on Scotland a Conservative led govt; which they have promised the Scots they will never let happen.

Miliband has ruled out, a coalition or confidence and supply,however that doesn't mean he cannot have the support of the SNP, if they decide to vote for his proposals, to keep the Conservatives out.
The SNP can still support a min.Labour govt; in order to ensure the Conservatives are out and stay out of power.

Even in the instance of Labour not being the largest party,if Labour MPs and SNP MPs make up a majority of votes in parliament,then the Conservatives can not govern at all,as they would not be able to reach overall majority status,even if they were the largest party.
David Cameron would have the right to put forward a Queen's speech first but once defeated then the chance would pass to Ed Miliband.
If Cameron is sure he couldn't win a Queen's speech vote, then he could resign right off as PM and allow Ed Miliband to put one forward.

Say the Conservatives had 284 seats,Labour had 275,seats, the SNP 53 seats.
Labour and the SNP combined would be 328 seats.

That would leave only 322 MPs left for all other parties, Sinn Feinn are likely to have at least 4 seats,they don't take their seats at the Westminster parliament,so that reduces further the 322 opposing number to at least 318.

Labour in that scenario could govern fine and would also be able to probably rely on votes too from Plaid Cymru, Greens and the SDLP from Northern Ireland.
Making their position even that bit stronger.

The worst scenario that could come about, would be that the SNP choose to vote down both the Labour Queen's speech and also a Conservative Queen's speech.
In that case, there would have to be another general election.

That is what Ed Miliband is happy to take a chance on happening,as he knows the SNP would have to explain that to their voters in Scotland.
So he seems to be prepared to call their bluff as to that.

[bots]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

No, there's no way he could have agreed to a generation initially if that entailed him being leader for the duration... That would be impossible :/

It was one mans informal undertaking, nothing written in stone. Lets see, my view is that the SNP will want to strike while they have momentum, and they have that now, leave it too long, and their chance will be gone for a generation

[Kizzy]

I think he's paying a very canny game Joey, thanks for that It is annoying that it gives the torys something else to harp on about in the hope of deflecting their misdemeanors though, but hopefully voters will get sick of them and insist on some real input over the next couple of days.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

It was one mans informal undertaking, nothing written in stone. Lets see, my view is that the SNP will want to strike while they have momentum, and they have that now, leave it too long, and their chance will be gone for a generation

Personally I think it is written, they won't get enough support in the UK parliament for another in/out anyway, even if the public do want one.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

Personally I think it is written, they won't get enough support in the UK parliament for another in/out anyway, even if the public do want one.

You are right, and she also needs to get it through the Scottish parliament again first too.
Before presenting it to the UK govt:

She could possibly lose the overall status she has there if in the manifesto for Holyrood elections next year, she includes seeking a new referendum again.

[billy123]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

The Conservatives,well some of their Ministers,(not the whole party,some are even dismayed Cameron is spending so much time fuelling this Scottish/English divisive talk),are furious that the SNP have said they will do all they can to lock the Conservatives out of power if they have the numbers to after the election.

What Ed Miliband has said is he will have no 'formal' deals with the SNP.
He has said if he gets the chance to, he will present a minority Labour govts; Queen's speech to parliament.

IT will then be up to all the other parties to either vote for that Queen's speech,vote against it or abstain, no deals done at all.

If the SNP back that Labour Queen's speech since they have said they will never pave the way for a Conservative led govt;
Then Labour governs as a minority Labour govt: still no deals done.

The SNP get no concessions or deals at all except they don't inflict on Scotland a Conservative led govt; which they have promised the Scots they will never let happen.

Miliband has ruled out, a coalition or confidence and supply,however that doesn't mean he cannot have the support of the SNP, if they decide to vote for his proposals, to keep the Conservatives out.
The SNP can still support a min.Labour govt; in order to ensure the Conservatives are out and stay out of power.

Even in the instance of Labour not being the largest party,if Labour MPs and SNP MPs make up a majority of votes in parliament,then the Conservatives can not govern at all,as they would not be able to reach overall majority status,even if they were the largest party.
David Cameron would have the right to put forward a Queen's speech first but once defeated then the chance would pass to Ed Miliband.
If Cameron is sure he couldn't win a Queen's speech vote, then he could resign right off as PM and allow Ed Miliband to put one forward.

Say the Conservatives had 284 seats,Labour had 275,seats, the SNP 53 seats.
Labour and the SNP combined would be 328 seats.

That would leave only 322 MPs left for all other parties, Sinn Feinn are likely to have at least 4 seats,they don't take their seats at the Westminster parliament,so that reduces further the 322 opposing number to at least 318.

Labour in that scenario could govern fine and would also be able to probably rely on votes too from Plaid Cymru, Greens and the SDLP from Northern Ireland.
Making their position even that bit stronger.

The worst scenario that could come about, would be that the SNP choose to vote down both the Labour Queen's speech and also a Conservative Queen's speech.
In that case, there would have to be another general election.

That is what Ed Miliband is happy to take a chance on happening,as he knows the SNP would have to explain that to their voters in Scotland.
So he seems to be prepared to call their bluff as to that.

Thanks for that post Joey that makes things a lot clearer.

[joeysteele]

The only other issue to take into account, is the 'fixed term parliament act' brought in by this coalition.

It has many clouded waters to its content and conditions that doesn't specify how many times govts; have to lose votes of confidence before a new general election comes about.

It could be David Cameron tries to get a Queen's speech through,is beaten, so then Ed Miliband gets a shot at it, if he gets beaten,there is a time frame for a new attempt to be made to form a govt:.
Cameron or Miliband could resign as leaders,then allow another leader to present their said or new Queen's speeches.

If one wins,they can govern, if in time they lose a vote of confidence, then it could be still that the then opposition gets another go at forming a govt;
It was an act that left a lot of questions and little as to what was needed to resolve the issues too.

Of course,one thing Labour and The Conservatives could agree on, could be to repeal the act.
To hand back to the PM of the day the ability and right to call an election anytime.

To just call for a new election however,under the fixed term parliament act in place now,would however need two thirds of elected MPs to vote for same.
This would require then, 434 MPs to call for a new election.
Not a two thirds of MPs present at the time but the actual votes of 434 MPs.

If both major parties concede however,that even with possible new leaders neither could get a Queen's speech passed in parliament,and are then in deadlock, then that vote for a new election would likely come about, with Labour and Conservative agreement,thanks to the number of MPs they have between them obviously.

[bots]

We could easily be beginning a new era of completely ineffectual government. Maybe as the population has such a lack of trust in any of the political parties, that is the proper outcome, until they get their act together and restore trust.