[Dash Darington]

A freeroll came your way, and you're trying to convince people who know nothing of gambling that it makes you a genius.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

A freeroll came your way, and you're trying to convince people who know nothing of gambling that it makes you a genius.

Please elaborate, you have my attention

[Dash Darington]

Originally Posted by sampvt

Please elaborate, you have my attention

A freeroll is possible when the odds shift in your favour. This happens to everyone who gambles over any significant length of time. Everyone. It's not evidence of being a great gambler.

Separately, you called it a no brainer that Joel would go, and now you've bet against yourself because your confidence has waned. If not, you'd either let it ride or at most bet just enough on Eileen going to cover your first bet. You've abandoned your own prediction. Not very Oracle-like.

[Beso]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

A freeroll is possible when the odds shift in your favour. This happens to everyone who gambles over any significant length of time. Everyone. It's not evidence of being a great gambler.

Separately, you called it a no brainer that Joel would go, and now you've bet against yourself because your confidence has waned. If not, you'd either let it ride or at most bet just enough on Eileen going to cover your first bet. You've abandoned your own prediction. Not very Oracle-like.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

A freeroll is possible when the odds shift in your favour. This happens to everyone who gambles over any significant length of time. Everyone. It's not evidence of being a great gambler.

Separately, you called it a no brainer that Joel would go, and now you've bet against yourself because your confidence has waned. If not, you'd either let it ride or at most bet just enough on Eileen going to cover your first bet. You've abandoned your own prediction. Not very Oracle-like.

This is why I make money and you obviously let your jealousy get the better of you. My Eileen bet was an insurance bet based on the edits and only a fool allows the chance factor to weigh lay their judgement. Being greedy is the trait of a desperate gambler. I don't gamble, I invest in betting odds.

I couldn't give a toss about personalities, I believe in the power of the pound not the love of an individual, that's for people like you that make the bookies a fortune with your logic (if of course you actually do bet which I doubt)

Im open for discussions anytime but if you want to turn this into a troll thread, walk on please as I am not that interested in arguing with people that cant reach my level.

[Dash Darington]

Originally Posted by sampvt

This is why I make money and you obviously let your jealousy get the better of you. My Eileen bet was an insurance bet based on the edits and only a fool allows the chance factor to weigh lay their judgement. Being greedy is the trait of a desperate gambler. I don't gamble, I invest in betting odds.

I couldn't give a toss about personalities, I believe in the power of the pound not the love of an individual, that's for people like you that make the bookies a fortune with your logic (if of course you actually do bet which I doubt)

Im open for discussions anytime but if you want to turn this into a troll thread, walk on please as I am not that interested in arguing with people that cant reach my level.

As I pointed out, you didn't simply make an insurance bet. You abandoned your prediction altogether. If you were still confident Joel would go, you'd bet 80 at 5/2 on Eileen to cover your first bet, and win 420 with zero risk.

It seems like you've backtracked from your claim about being an Oracle or great predictor of outcomes in the game. That's reasonable. Abandoning your prediction is the appropriate response, given your uncertainty. Your response to the favourable shift in the odds is a sound one.

After re-reading your post I see you're actually describing an imaginary bet that isn't even available to you, not one you've actually place.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

As I pointed out, you didn't simply make an insurance bet. You abandoned your prediction altogether. If you were still confident Joel would go, you'd bet 80 at 5/2 on Eileen to cover your first bet, and win 420 with zero risk.

It seems like you've backtracked from your claim about being an Oracle or great predictor of outcomes in the game. That's reasonable. Abandoning your prediction is the appropriate response, given your uncertainty. Your response to the favourable shift in the odds is a sound one.

After re-reading your post I see you're actually describing an imaginary bet that isn't even available to you, not one you've actually place.

Going by your analysis, you seem hell bent on trying to push the point that I abandoned my mantle of the Oracle by placing an insurance bet. Let me ask you this, would you rather win £300 with zero risk of £500 with a medium risk. If you answer the former you are agreeing with me, if you answer the later you are a mug punter. If you don't answer with any logical rhetoric, you admit defeat and my mantle of Oracle stands in tact and you enter troll territory.

Why don't you offer facts not supposition, I am far better placed to argue the toss with a logical debate as opposed to bickering with someone who is plainly jealous of someone obviously more successful that your good self

Now do we agree to disagree and move on, are you just going to keep on digging at me.

[Dash Darington]

Originally Posted by sampvt

Going by your analysis, you seem hell bent on trying to push the point that I abandoned my mantle of the Oracle by placing an insurance bet. Let me ask you this, would you rather win £300 with zero risk of £500 with a medium risk. If you answer the former you are agreeing with me, if you answer the later you are a mug punter. If you don't answer with any logical rhetoric, you admit defeat and my mantle of Oracle stands in tact and you enter troll territory.

Why don't you offer facts not supposition, I am far better placed to argue the toss with a logical debate as opposed to bickering with someone who is plainly jealous of someone obviously more successful that your good self

Now do we agree to disagree and move on, are you just going to keep on digging at me.

As I've said repeatedly, you didn't simply place an insurance bet (which itself would be a sign of uncertainty). You've bet both sides. In answer to your question, I'd take the first option and take the guaranteed £300. I do agree with you, and I've said so. It is a sound response to your own uncertainty. You've just described a "medium risk" that your prediction is incorrect, which means you're not an Oracle, and your predictions have a significant element of uncertainty.

I won't fault you for your repeated insults and ad hominem attacks, as I suspect you can't help yourself.