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the truth · 19-09-2016, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dezzy

I don't think the polls will mean anything when it comes down to the voting (not that I believe any stats Truth puts out anyway). The only voters he appeals to are the straight white people with racist tendencies which means that he won't have any impact with anyone who doesn't fit into his narrow demographic and the last two elections have shown that the vote Trump is courting no longer wins the White House by itself.

cheers for calling me a liar lol

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

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General Election: Trump vs. Clinton (4-Way)
69.4k Shares RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes | Latest Polls
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 9/5 - 9/18 -- -- clinton 44.9% trump 44.0% Clinton +0.9%
+7

arista · 19-09-2016, 05:18 PM

Yes
the truth

CNN HD Live said today
the Polls all say its very close now.

Withano · 19-09-2016, 07:36 PM

Not really the point we're making though.. Polls are entirely irrelevant.

bots · 19-09-2016, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano

Not really the point we're making though.. Polls are entirely irrelevant.

hardly, they give a fairly accurate impression of public opinion, and what the trend of opinion is over time. Very relevant I would say.

The margin of error in polls is such that one really has no idea who will win this election. Its too close to call, at least at this point. Literally either could win it, so pretending otherwise could just lead to disappointment down the line.

GiRTh · 19-09-2016, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano

Not really the point we're making though.. Polls are entirely irrelevant.

The official polls they use are accurate. They predicted Obama's win in both 2008 and 2012 and in 2012 Obama actually won by a bigger margin than the polls were predicting even though many didnt believe the polls and thought Romney was much closer.

Trump is running rings around the media at the moment. He cant be pinned down on policy, he doesnt answer questions, he yet not one of the supposedly skilled media cann pin him down on anything. He a complete joke and they are an even bigger joke. He changes his mind on a daily basis but it looks like he understands TV better than most of the media and thus not much is sticking at the moment

The debate is gonna be essential viewing. It will be nothing like they have had before and I dont think the winner will be decided at that point. Trump will call HRC 'lying Hillary' and 'corrupt Hillary' over and over again and it might stick

Withano · 20-09-2016, 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

hardly, they give a fairly accurate impression of public opinion, and what the trend of opinion is over time. Very relevant I would say.

The margin of error in polls is such that one really has no idea who will win this election. Its too close to call, at least at this point. Literally either could win it, so pretending otherwise could just lead to disappointment down the line.

But public opinion isnt how the winner will be decided, it isn't the most votes win. Theres an entirely different method in place so na, irrelevant.

bots · 20-09-2016, 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano

But public opinion isnt how the winner will be decided, it isn't the most votes win. Theres an entirely different method in place so na, irrelevant.

and its the same in the UK, it doesn't stop polls being incredibley accurately recently. As I was also saying, trends are also very important

Liberty4eva · 20-09-2016, 02:44 PM

Because Trump would be way more friendly to an independent UK than Hillary, it makes logical sense for the British to support Trump. There are really only a handful of people here that are immune to this social justice warrior crap.

Anyways, Trump should win the debate.

Withano · 21-09-2016, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

and its the same in the UK, it doesn't stop polls being incredibley accurately recently. As I was also saying, trends are also very important

Ukip got 12.6% of the vote and 1 in 650 seats. They done similarly well in polls. Thats how incredibly inaccurate polls are. So na, irrelevant.

bots · 21-09-2016, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano

Ukip got 12.6% of the vote and 1 in 650 seats. They done similarly well in polls. Thats how incredibly inaccurate polls are. So na, irrelevant.

thats fine. Lets mark this thread, and then refer back to it at the result. I don't need to argue. I have no horse in this race

Withano · 21-09-2016, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

thats fine. Lets mark this thread, and then refer back to it at the result. I don't need to argue. I have no horse in this race

You dont understand.. Trump could top the poll, Clinton could top the poll and that does not matter, that is not how the winner is decided

Its the same in the UK, it did not matter that UKIP got 12.6% of the vote, they wont get 12.6% of the seats cos thats not how it works.

bots · 21-09-2016, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano

You dont understand.. Trump could top the poll, Clinton could top the poll and that does not matter, that is not how the winner is decided

Its the same in the UK, it did not matter that UKIP got 12.6% of the vote, they wont get 12.6% of the seats cos thats not how it works.

Are you aware of just how accurate the polls in the UK have been in recent years? Identifying almost seat for seat who would win. I think it is you who doesn't understand the nature of polls these days.

Withano · 21-09-2016, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

Are you aware of just how accurate the polls in the UK have been in recent years? Identifying almost seat for seat who would win. I think it is you who doesn't understand the nature of polls these days.

They havent been at all accurate, not that it matters with a general election because popular opinion is not how its decided.

bots · 21-09-2016, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano

They havent been at all accurate, not that it matters with a general election because popular opinion is not how its decided.

but these are polls, which doesn't necessarily equate with public opinion. Sorry, but evidence of accuracy is there for all to see in recent elections in both the USA and here in the UK. If you don't want to acknowledge that, that's fine. I'm just curious why you would want to discard a poll as a useful indicator though. What purpose does that serve? Would you rather be ignorant of trends? Do you want to believe there can only be one possible winner, no matter what evidence is presented to the contrary? I find it intriguing.

Withano · 21-09-2016, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

but these are polls, which doesn't necessarily equate with public opinion. Sorry, but evidence of accuracy is there for all to see in recent elections in both the USA and here in the UK. If you don't want to acknowledge that, that's fine. I'm just curious why you would want to discard a poll as a useful indicator though. What purpose does that serve? Would you rather be ignorant of trends? Do you want to believe there can only be one possible winner, no matter what evidence is presented to the contrary? I find it intriguing.

I don't care who wins really, theres just no point in being like 'uh-oh the polls are close, trump has a chance now' no.. He could top the polls and it would not make a difference. It is irrelevant. He will win if he gets more states behind him, not more people. The polls represent the latter and they are irrelevant.

Withano · 21-09-2016, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

but these are polls, which doesn't necessarily equate with public opinion. Sorry, but evidence of accuracy is there for all to see in recent elections in both the USA and here in the UK. If you don't want to acknowledge that, that's fine. I'm just curious why you would want to discard a poll as a useful indicator though. What purpose does that serve? Would you rather be ignorant of trends? Do you want to believe there can only be one possible winner, no matter what evidence is presented to the contrary? I find it intriguing.

Let me word it a different way for you

You need 270 areas to take control

Clinton has 169 pretty much secured and an extra 55 are likely
Trump has 97 pretty much secured and an extra 23 are likely

Thats 224:120 with 194 unclear areas.

It doesnt matter that Trump is nearing Clinton in popularity polls, because, that is not how the winner is decided.

bots · 21-09-2016, 02:12 PM

here are recent changes :

Here is the current map:

Its a trend favouring Trump, and by no means an assured victory for Hillary.

The question is, what has Trump done to improve his rating? Nothing. Some things just happen.

Tom4784 · 21-09-2016, 03:04 PM

I imagine the debates will be the death of Trump's campaign, his policies are senseless and vague and the debates should put that in plain sight. I imagine he'll resort to his playground insults before long, As long as Hillary doesn't get drawn into it and stands her ground then she should be able to come out on top easily.

I still refuse to believe that people outside of his bigoted fandom will actually vote for him.

Withano · 21-09-2016, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

here are recent changes :

Here is the current map:

Its a trend favouring Trump, and by no means an assured victory for Hillary.

The question is, what has Trump done to improve his rating? Nothing. Some things just happen.

So to summarise, popularity polls are irrelevant. And I dont know where you found that map but Clinton would win even if Trump took all of those 'toss up' areas. I dont think its an assured thing yet, you should stay away from that website.