[Wizard.]

In the 1970 General Election it was certain that Labour leader Harold Wilson would return with a majority as Prime Minister and that Conservative Leader Edward Heath had no chance of getting into Number 10. Opinion polls showed that Labour had a lead of anywhere between a 1% to 9% point lead on the Conservatives but to the countries shock (Ted Heath was the only one who thought he would win - not even the Conservatives thought they had a chance) the Conservatives threw Labour out of power by winning 330 seats to Labours 228.

All I'm saying is never expect a result until the result comes through!

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Riley.

In the 1970 General Election it was certain that Labour leader Harold Wilson would return with a majority as Prime Minister and that Conservative Leader Edward Heath had no chance of getting into Number 10. Opinion polls showed that Labour had a lead of anywhere between a 1% to 9% point lead on the Conservatives but to the countries shock (Ted Heath was the only one who thought he would win - not even the Conservatives thought they had a chance) the Conservatives threw Labour out of power by winning 330 seats to Labours 228.

All I'm saying is never expect a result until the result comes through!

I mentioned this a few weeks ago and was told it was pointless looking back to different times.
Not by you Riley.
I like looking back and politics and elections do have history repeating itself.

The 1970 election too was called after having good local election results by Harold Wilson,and as you said leads ranging from 1% to nearer 10%.

Then the Cons and Heath came through overturning a Labour previous majority of around 90 into a Con one of 30.

Obviously,not yourself, but I would love a similar scenario but as you say,it's been done before.

I'd say it won't this time but there's no way of really assessing that last second decision of voting in the ballot booth by voters.
Glad you looked that up as I did.

[bots]

All the polls have been on such small scales, the maximum is usually 2000. Even with the best modelling in the world, the margin of error when you scale it up to 40+ million makes them not a lot more reliable than a lottery predictor.

What will be will be.

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Riley.

In the 1970 General Election it was certain that Labour leader Harold Wilson would return with a majority as Prime Minister and that Conservative Leader Edward Heath had no chance of getting into Number 10. Opinion polls showed that Labour had a lead of anywhere between a 1% to 9% point lead on the Conservatives but to the countries shock (Ted Heath was the only one who thought he would win - not even the Conservatives thought they had a chance) the Conservatives threw Labour out of power by winning 330 seats to Labours 228.

All I'm saying is never expect a result until the result comes through!

Results have been hard to call in recent years (Brexit, Trump) but to be honest I think that's because results at the moment are heavily right-skewed over what was expected... so I think, unfortunately, in this case



AND I have a horrible feeling that the Tories will gain some seats in Scotland, too, mainly off the back of the terrorist / security rhetoric.

I am open to being pleasantly surprised, though.

[Greg!]

Fookin hope so but I doubt it.

[Withano]

That sounds so arousing. But nah, Tories have won it.. but probably my with the 66% majority they wanted.

[smudgie]

I won't take a Tory win for granted.
I reckon the young voters, especially students will be out in force today.
The thought of no student fees would get me voting if I was a student, you would be daft not to.

[Tom4784]

Originally Posted by smudgie

I won't take a Tory win for granted.
I reckon the young voters, especially students will be out in force today.
The thought of no student fees would get me voting if I was a student, you would be daft not to.

The young vote is always touted as influential but the older vote always swings it in the end, sadly.

[sungrass]

Originally Posted by Dezzy

The young vote is always touted as influential but the older vote always swings it in the end, sadly.

Aye 67% of the population is over 60 - which is scary when you think about the future of elderly care and so many of them keep voting Tory

[Tom4784]

Originally Posted by sungrass

Aye 67% of the population is over 60 - which is scary when you think about the future of elderly care and so many of them keep voting Tory

People buy into the headlines but not the reality. People will believe the lies about Labour but will champion the Tories when they say nothing and their policies are vague messes that haven't been correctly priced.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Dezzy

People buy into the headlines but not the reality. People will believe the lies about Labour but will champion the Tories when they say nothing and their policies are vague messes that haven't been correctly priced.

Dead right again.
Also it has been one of the better things during this unnecessary and awful election, to come across your strong and reasoned posts all through