[arista]

This worse than the Flu
James
Covid 19 jumps into a old person lungs
FAST

[arista]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

Boris actually said 250,000 tests, it was the expert next to him who said 25,000.. 10,000 will be a generous estimate too.
Nobody I know that rang 111 with symptoms has been offered a test.

Yes Kizzy they run out of a large amount
so cancelled General Public tests.

[James]

Originally Posted by arista

This worse than the Flu
James
Covid 19 jumps into a old person lungs
FAST

Yes, looks like it.

[The Slim Reaper]

Originally Posted by James

But it still kills about 18,000 people a year and that could be reduced with stronger measures.

Also there's years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to the strain that is going about, and it doesn't do much good. More about that here -
https://www.insider.com/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

I've read a lot of medical experts saying that comparing this to flu is a mistake. We've done all we can to mitigate risks with the flu, and as a society we accept that there are risks in daily life. Same reason no one wants to ban cars or planes.

The early government guesstimate for Covid-19 was that letting it go would cause over 200,000 deaths, and that's the figure that came out, so it's probably closer to 500,000. That's why Boris had to change tact to now put us in lockdown.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by James

But it still kills about 18,000 people a year and that could be reduced with stronger measures.

Also there's years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to the strain that is going about, and it doesn't do much good. More about that here -
https://www.insider.com/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

ThIs is not flu, I can only suggest that the economy can't grind to a halt every year? Flu is as you say seasonal it comes and it goes..this won't go.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

ThIs is not flu, I can only suggest that the economy can't grind to a halt every year? Flu is as you say seasonal it comes and it goes..this won't go.

This will become seasonal once larger scale immunity is present and then will reduce further when effective vaccination is possible.

The main difference between this and flu is that it's new and thus large numbers can become infected at once, swamping the healthcare system and condensing deaths into a protracted time period.

Lockdown is to stop that from happening and manage the spread, which can hopefully be contained in pockets post-lockdown (this remains to be seen, we'll see what happens in China).

The lockdown is not to eliminate Covid-19, and realistically, people need to stop believing that it's going anywhere or they're just setting themselves up for a fresh shock. It can't currently be treated like flu because its new; and not everyone catches flu all at once. That's the major difference. Over time, while the disease is NOT flu, the management of it will become EXACTLY like flu. There will be seasonal Covid-19 in the years to come and a yearly death figure (probably similar to flu) is something that is just inevitable.

[Toy Soldier]

I'd also point out that we also didn't lockdown the country every winter before annual flu vaccination became widespread (annual shots are actually a very new thing in the UK) and death rates did used to be higher. A long-term, spread out death rate from flu is an accepted "norm" and in the decades to come, the same will be true of Covid.

We just need to get past the initial "hump" of zero population immunity without healthcare and the economy imploding.

[Smithy]

Originally Posted by arista

100% Johnson PM
is at fault
he had Harder warnings
ignored them.

DRAG HIM Arista

[Toy Soldier]

I guess if you want a real-world example of something comparable;

During the colonisation of America a lot of Native Americans died of illnesses brought in by colonists who only had the sniffles. They had NO resistance to the viruses being brought in, when in Europe these bugs had been circulating for decades, and that made them far more severe for the "immune-naive" natives.

Flu is seasonal because of mutations that mean you can "catch it again", but you still have some "tools in the immunity toolkit" to fight it. That will happen with Covid and that's how it will become seasonal. It'll mutate season to season but be less severe than it is as a "fresh virus" straight off the bat.


........


.... And yes I do feel like I need to apologise for that pun...

[The Slim Reaper]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

I'd also point out that we also didn't lockdown the country every winter before annual flu vaccination became widespread (annual shots are actually a very new thing in the UK) and death rates did used to be higher. A long-term, spread out death rate from flu is an accepted "norm" and in the decades to come, the same will be true of Covid.

We just need to get past the initial "hump" of zero population immunity without healthcare and the economy imploding.

You can't compare what was happening pre 1940's to the modern day though. Completely different worlds, populations, and medical capabilities.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

This will become seasonal once larger scale immunity is present and then will reduce further when effective vaccination is possible.

The main difference between this and flu is that it's new and thus large numbers can become infected at once, swamping the healthcare system and condensing deaths into a protracted time period.

Lockdown is to stop that from happening and manage the spread, which can hopefully be contained in pockets post-lockdown (this remains to be seen, we'll see what happens in China).

The lockdown is not to eliminate Covid-19, and realistically, people need to stop believing that it's going anywhere or they're just setting themselves up for a fresh shock. It can't currently be treated like flu because its new; and not everyone catches flu all at once. That's the major difference. Over time, while the disease is NOT flu, the management of it will become EXACTLY like flu. There will be seasonal Covid-19 in the years to come and a yearly death figure (probably similar to flu) is something that is just inevitable.

Again if it is not flu why would it be seasonal?

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

Again if it is not flu why would it be seasonal?

Because once widescale population immunity is present (both natural and vaccine) it'll re-emerge as fresh mutations seasonally, but immune systems will have "blueprints" to work off of that will make it spread less easily (a mutated virus strain is not a new virus, some of the previous antibodies can still fight it).

Also this is the 5th human coronavirus, there are 4 other milder coronaviruses in regular circulation and they are largely seasonal.

I think it's also worth noting that we have no real idea how severe those 4 viruses were when they first became active in humans, Covid-19 could theoretically eventually be very similar to them. But that's not really a practical point, more just thinking about what Covid-19 might look like when it's been around for a few hundred years. Very possible that for the people of 2220 it's just another cold.

I might freeze my head like Disney just to pop up in 200 years and say "See, told you!" before I inevitably die (because of being a head in a jar). Really that's how I want to go out.

[Kizzy]

Do you mean bird flu, swine flu, SARS and MERS?
The difference between those are vast, I think this is SARS to be honest.. it's bad enough, if it were MERS Then it would be pretty much game over in the UK before we could even think of finding a vaccine.

[smudgie]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

Do you mean bird flu, swine flu, SARS and MERS?
The difference between those are vast, I think this is SARS to be honest.. it's bad enough, if it were MERS Then it would be pretty much game over in the UK before we could even think of finding a vaccine.

Isn’t it called SARS Covid 19

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

Do you mean bird flu, swine flu, SARS and MERS?
The difference between those are vast, I think this is SARS to be honest.. it's bad enough, if it were MERS Then it would be pretty much game over in the UK before we could even think of finding a vaccine.

No, SARS and MERS are severe rare coronaviruses (there are 7 coronaviruses in total), bird flu and swine flu are influenza strains.

There are 4 common, mild, coronavirus strains in permanent circulation. The common cold is usually one of the four coronaviruses.

Common human coronaviruses

229E (alpha coronavirus)

NL63 (alpha coronavirus)

OC43 (beta coronavirus)

HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

Other human coronaviruses

MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)

SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)

SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.

Sometimes coronaviruses that infect animals can evolve and make people sick and become a new human coronavirus. Three recent examples of this are 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html


There is a consensus that eventually Covid-19 is likely to become a "new 5th" common coronavirus.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by smudgie

Isn’t it called SARS Covid 19

The virus that causes Covid-19 (name of the illness, not the name of the virus) is SARS-CoV-2.

They don't use it commonly in reporting because the word "SARS" understandably scares people. But it is a far less severe virus than SARS-1.

[Shaun]

I did think that Boris was too slow to contain it but we're talking about the scope of, say, one week and given the booming figures in Italy and Spain at the time, we could've definitely rushed forward with a total lockdown sooner... but these are unprecedented times and anything done by a PM will have a ton of "how do you know that's the right response?" hypotheses thrown at them. Had he ordered the lockdown mid-February, we may well have been frothing at the mouth and saying things weren't "that bad" yet.

I also have some sympathy with the "might have died anyway" argument... flu seasons are more deadly than we think, and even though the occasional 18 or 21 year old seems to be succumbing to this virus, the vast majority are indeed those who'd struggle with pneumonia or the ilk. It's not exactly pleasant to think, and it certainly shouldn't be upheld disrespectfully as some sort of "people die get over it " Darwinist asshole argument, but those figures over an entire Winter of flu seasons (ie. the equivalent of 3-6 months of this virus) might not be much less.

Not to absolve Bojo of guilt, though, since his pals have stripped the NHS to a point where it's desperately trying to keep up and might not.

[Toy Soldier]

I think a critical factor in the "should we have tightened up earlier" debate has yet to be revealed anyway, and it's one that the government will have considered.

And that is "how long will people fully comply".

Because compliance will drop over time no matter how strict the lockdown is, fatigue will set in and people will start to break quarantine. Some people will, quite simply, become too bored to care. For the time being we like to think everyone is on board and doing great... We've been doing it for less than 2 weeks.

The earlier you implement lockdown, the earlier in the cycle that happens. We want it to be as late as possible.

[arista]

Shaun
Johnson PM
dragged his feet a month ago and weeks ago.
He is responsible for not Locking us down Fully.

The NHS while not be able handle the new amount
and some more Medical Workers can also Die
from Covid 19.

[arista]

Originally Posted by Smithy

DRAG HIM Arista

You Are Most Wise
Smithy.

[LeatherTrumpet]

In 2018

In England and Wales


1484 people died every day



so that meant that by 29.3.18 - 130, 592 people had died

[Nicky91]

it's more like very extreme form of pneumonia, and combined with how it spreads almost as rapidly as common flu virus then yes this is a serious virus

pneumonia also kinda destroys the lungs

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

No, SARS and MERS are severe rare coronaviruses (there are 7 coronaviruses in total), bird flu and swine flu are influenza strains.

There are 4 common, mild, coronavirus strains in permanent circulation. The common cold is usually one of the four coronaviruses.



https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html


There is a consensus that eventually Covid-19 is likely to become a "new 5th" common coronavirus.

A coronavirus is anything that jumps from animals to humans isn't it like bird and swine?

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-...stions-answers

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Nicky91

it's more like very extreme form of pneumonia, and combined with how it spreads almost as rapidly as common flu virus then yes this is a serious virus

pneumonia also kinda destroys the lungs

Uk intensive care wards are reporting 50% death rates ONCE you get to that stage ..

The wards have loads of 20-40 years olds in intensive care wards .. most had NO underlying conditions.

This is seriously scary




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[The Slim Reaper]

Names of the first 3 doctors in the UK to die from protecting us:

Amged el-Hawrani
Adel el-Tayar
Habib Zaidi

Remember this next time immigration is being used to sow hatred.